A Full Bayesian Non-parametric Analysis Involving a Neutral to the Right Process

Implementation of a full Bayesian non-parametric analysis involving neutral to the right processes (apart from the special case of the Dirichlet process) has been difficult for two reasons: first, the posterior distributions are complex and therefore only Bayes estimates (posterior expectations) have previously been presented; secondly, it is difficult to obtain an interpretation for the parameters of a neutral to the right process. In this paper we extend Ferguson & Phadia (1979) by presenting a general method for specifying the prior mean and variance of a neutral to the right process, providing the interpretation of the parameters. Additionally, we provide the basis for a full Bayesian analysis, via simulation, from the posterior process using a hybrid of new algorithms that is applicable to a large class of neutral to the right processes (Ferguson & Phadia only provide posterior means). The ideas are exemplified through illustrative analyses.     

Are We Playing the Same Game?: Publishing Task Environments and Research Productivity Among Management Specialists

Archival data on over 15,000 contributors to 33management journals are used to examine productivitydifferences among scholars in different areas ofmanagement. The results suggest that a fragmentedpublication network offers specialists from different areasdissimilar publication opportunities and experiences,and may contribute to varying levels of publicationproductivity among authors. The implications of our results for future research and facultyevaluation processes are explored.     

Trust in surveys and games – A methodological contribution on the influence of money and location

This paper explores methods to study trust. In a variety of settings, answers to survey questions and choices in a trust game are obtained from student sample pools. Some subjects are approached by mail and execute their task at home whereas others participate in classroom experiments. No differences between the results obtained by these methods are observed. Furthermore, one additional group plays the trust game with purely hypothetical payments, and another receives random lottery payments. This changes trust behavior dramatically, whereas trustworthiness is unaffected. Subjects without any financial incentives exhibit less trust and their trust choices are significantly correlated with survey trust answers. There is no such correlation for the corresponding choices with real payments.     

Regression Modelling of Disease Risk in Relation to Point Sources

We describe a class of models for the investigation of possible raised risk of disease around putative sources of environmental pollution. An adaptation of the point process method suggested by Diggle and Rowlingson is presented, allowing the use of routinely available aggregated data and incorporating the more general distance–risk model suggested by Elliott and co-workers. An application to data on cancers of the stomach around municipal solid waste incinerators is presented.     

Forecasting mortality rates via density ratio modeling

The authors propose a semiparametric approach to modeling and forecasting age‐specific mortality in the United States. Their method is based on an extension of a class of semiparametric models to time series. It combines information from several time series and estimates the predictive distribution conditional on past data. The conditional expectation, which is the most commonly used predictor in practice, is the first moment of this distribution. The authors compare their method to that of Lee and Carter.     

CRIMINALS AS HEROES: LINKING SYMBOL TO STRUCTURE

This article examines the phenomenon of the heroic criminal and describes the structural preconditions necessary for his appearance. The author argues that these lawbreakers are best understood as cultural products that represent a concept of extra-legal justice. Their criminality, at least initially, is imputed with political meaning. Such symbols emerge when the rational, formal, bureaucratic justice of the state fails to reflect popular conceptions of justice. These symbolic figures are endemic in any culturally complex state society, although usually their appeal is to a small and relatively powerless public. But at times when the perception of law as unjust is widespread, the heroic criminal may emerge as a national figure of epic proportions. At such times a virtual epidemic of such figures may appear since entrepreneurs, motivated by either politics or profit, “market” such symbols to a receptive public. Using comparative analysis, the author presents briefcase studies of Jesse James, William Bonney (Billy the Kid), John Dillinger, and Charles Arthur (Pretty Boy) Floyd to demonstrate how they became legendary figures. The author then describes more contemporary symbols of extra-legal justice and the structural factors that inspired their heroic image.     

Estimating Probabilities Relevant to Calculating Relative Risk-Corrected Returns of Alternative Portfolios

In making all-or-none choices between alternative securities, Samuelson (1997b) suggested that investors of different risk-aversion should calculate from past samples of those securities their relevant Harmonic Means, or Geometric means, or other associative means representative of their respective degrees of relative-risk-aversion. Here it is shown how this learning procedure can be improved upon when you have prior knowledge that the securities have log-Normal distributions. Classical estimation theory, concerning consistent, efficient, and sufficient statistics, is shown to have a cash value by means of the calculable measure of (ex ante) “risk-corrected certainty equivalents.” Needed qualifications and testings are also presented.