Mortality in Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia: Divergence in Recent Trends and Possible Explanations

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia were quite comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the three former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends and age- and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the three countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different in Belarus than it was in Lithuania and Russia. The marked similarities in socioeconomic and mortality trends in the countries up to 1991 contrast with their notable divergence during the subsequent years. The nature and success of market reforms seems to be the most plausible explanation for these differences. Russia and Lithuania have chosen more radical forms of economic and political transformations, which have led to massive privatization campaigns. The reforms were more sustainable and systematic in Lithuania than in Russia. By contrast, Belarus has chosen a gradual and slow transition path. Recent mortality trends in Belarus are explored in detail here, and are contrasted with those observed in Lithuania and Russia. Including a cause-of-death analysis sheds more light on the plausible determinants of the variations in mortality levels between the countries.     

The social role of alcohol in Russian culture

The year 1995 marks the tenth anniversary of the beginning of perestroika in Russia. The country has paid with its health for all the social, economic and political reforms. The chronic state of social stress, which is already in its tenth year, has led to a sharp growth in alcoholism and drug addiction, an increasing prevalence of neurosis and psychosomatic diseases and an increase in the death rate and decrease in the birth rate. This is the degeneration of the Russian nation. Alcohol stimulates and alcoholism indicates the process of self-destruction of the population. Unfortunately, there are no accurate statistics on alcohol consumption and problems in Russia today, as there is no state monopoly on alcohol production and sale and no common drug treatment service for the whole country. According to generalized estimates from epidemiological investigations, the average prevalence of alcoholism is 200–250 per 1000 adults, but this differs significantly in different professional groups: 10% of the workers in the nuclear energy industry suffer from alcoholism, 35% of the sailors, 22% of the workers in the machine-tool industry and 42% of the people working in the woodworking industry. There is one woman alcoholic for each 5 men. On average, only 1 of every 7 alcoholics seeks medical and social aid. The main cause of alcoholism is alcoholism itself -its uncontrolled and expanding reproduction. The investigation of alcoholism is being intensively removed from the clinical to the social sphere. It can be explained by understanding the role of social and psychological factors in the origin and development of alcoholism and the harsh socio-economic consequences and moral damage. The appearance of a new class of specialists - social workers - in Russia in 1991 was predetermined by these factors. The main objective of social workers is to fight social diseases and alcoholism in particular as the most terrible social disease of the Russian Federation. The history and place of alcohol in modern Russian culture, the stages and forms of the development of alcoholism and its ethnocultural peculiarities in different social strata of the population are described in this article. The reasons for and consequences of alcoholism are systematized, and the principles and directions of the activity of the social services in dealing with the treatment of alcoholism and rehabilitation of the diseased are defined.     

On the exact distribution of the sum of the largest n−k out of n normal random variables with differing mean values

Motivated by an application in Electrical Engineering, we derive the exact distribution of the sum of the largest n?k out of n normally distributed random variables, with differing mean values. Comparisons are made with two normal approximations to this distribution—one arising from the asymptotic negligibility of the omitted order statistics and one from the theory of L-statistics. The latter approximation is found to be in excellent agreement with the exact distribution.     

Policing cities: Incivility,disorder, and societal transformations

Over the past 30 years, we have been witnessing a rise in incivility policing across western but also non-western cities. The term “incivility policing” refers to bans and exclusion aimed at drinking alcohol, begging, loitering, sitting in public, and many other kinds of subcriminal conduct. Scholars have observed an increasing readiness to demand legal “solutions” aimed against these kinds of conduct. In this paper, I review two major strands of scholarship dealing with the origins of these calls: First, a rising punitiveness and a “law and order” mentality, inspired by the Broken windows theory and Zero tolerance policies. Second, privatization of space and the rising influence of private actors over public spaces are discussed with references to the concepts of neoliberalism, revanchism, and the right to the city. The effect of incivility policing on vulnerable groups is examined using the example of homeless people in public space. In the final part, I suggest new factors which could help us understand the rise in incivility policing: These include general trust, everyday trust, and the imaginaries of community.     

The Jewish Emigration from the Former Soviet Union to Germany

Since the end of the 1980s a massive emigration of Jews from the former Soviet Union (FSU) can be observed. Israel and the United States were the most important receiving countries, followed by Germany, a comparatively new immigration destination for Jews from the successor states of the USSR. One of the reasons the German Government allowed the admission of Jews from post-Soviet states was the Jewish community's claim that this immigration might rejuvenate the German Jewish population in the longer run. Using an index of demographic aging (Billeter's J), the following article examines if this has actually happened. Findings suggest that immigration actually initiated a process of rejuvenation in the Jewish population in Germany. However, it was reversed during the end of the 1990s because of an unaffected low fertility.     

STATE TAXES AND LEGISLATIVE TURNOVER IN THE UNITED STATES

Mounting empirical evidence suggests that term limits and, by extension, higher legislative turnover increase the overall size of government and change its spending composition. However, less is known about the turnover's impact on the composition of tax revenues. This study fills this void by exploiting exogenous variation in term limits and redistricting as instruments for legislative turnover, which is found to be positively associated with most state taxes except for the corporate income tax. We hypothesize that the negative association between legislative turnover and corporate income taxes might be influenced by a higher propensity of business owners to enter term-limited state legislatures. (JEL H7, H3)     

Representing degree distributions, clustering, and homophily in social networks with latent cluster random effects models

Social network data often involve transitivity, homophily on observed attributes, community structure, and heterogeneity of actor degrees. We propose a latent cluster random effects model to represent all of these features, and we develop Bayesian inference for it. The model is applicable to both binary and non-binary network data. We illustrate the model using two real datasets: liking between monks and coreaderships between Slovenian publications. We also apply it to two simulated network datasets with very different network structure but the same highly skewed degree sequence generated from a preferential attachment process. One has transitivity and community structure while the other does not. Models based solely on degree distributions, such as scale-free, preferential attachment and power-law models, cannot distinguish between these very different situations, but the latent cluster random effects model does.     

Robust multivariate Bayesian forecasting under functional distortions in the -metric

This paper investigates robustness of multivariate forecasting in the Bayesian framework. The minimax approach is used to construct robust statistical procedures under deviations from hypothetical assumptions. The deviations are defined as functional distortions using the χ²-pseudo-metric. Two cases of deviations are considered: distortions of parameter distribution and distortions of joint distribution of observations and parameters. Explicit forms for the guaranteed upper risk functional are obtained and integral equations for robust prediction statistics are given for both cases.