Targeting Spatial Clusters of Elderly Consumers in the U.S.A

For business demographers, a noteworthy aspect of national population aging is the course of its onset at local scales, such as neighborhoods and individual city blocks. Across the U. S., particular neighborhoods are evolving through aging in place into de facto retirement communities, populated by elderly residents who continue to live independently. An increasingly common manifestation of this development is the so-called naturally occurring retirement community (NORC)—a neighborhood where adults have stayed on and grown old while younger people have drifted away. NORCs materialize gradually over time where initial cohorts settle in close proximity and age in place, while subsequent younger cohorts move away. These settings offer novel opportunities for prolonging independent living in old age. They constitute distinctive readymade consumer markets as well, especially for businesses that rely on word of mouth. We present a general approach to spotting NORCs. We then consider such enclaves as potential target markets, both for community planners aiming to centralize service delivery to the elderly and for businesses offering types of services that can be bundled profitably for these residential concentrations of elderly.     

Breaking alias chains in fractional factorials

Some experimenters carry out their investigation in stages. They begin with an initial 2^n-p fraction of resolution IV, in which the main effects are clean and the interactions are aliased in chains, Then, having analyzed the initial experiment, they plan further runs to isolate certain interactions by breaking the chains. In this paper a method called semifolding, for choosing the points in the second experiment, is presented.     

The Power of Legal Norms in the EU's External Border Control

Despite an increased level of legalization of JHA, academic literature has paid little attention to the role of law in this field. It is the objective of this article to assess the EU's attempt to reconcile its current practices of extraterritorial border control coordinated by Frontex in the Mediterranean with international human rights law, notably the principle of non‐refoulement. By drawing on insights on both rationalist and constructivist accounts, we argue that international human rights principles such as non‐refoulement are usually broad enough for everyone to identify and agree with and to provide state actors sufficient leeway to interpret the rules according to their interest. However, thanks to the activities of numerous inter‐, supra‐, and transnational actors offering various and competing legal interpretations, EU member states feel compelled to react by triggering several rounds of rule‐specification that have the power to clarify pertinent law and strengthen fundamental rights standards.     

Problematic Sociality: Uncertainty and the Study of Social Problems

John Kitsuse and Malcolm Spector’s theoretical framework for the analysis of social problems is revisited and an alternative formulation is sketched out, albeit one that maintains a focus on constructivist processes. Spector and Kitsuse’s model posits actors (claims-makers and counter-claimants) who possess moral certitude regarding what is objectionable and worthy of remedial action; by contrast, the present discussion suggests grounding the study of social problems in experiences characterized by uncertainty. The concept of “problematic sociality” is proposed as a way of identifying such circumstances. Sociality — routine, coordinated and manageable forms of association among individuals and between groups — becomes problematic when interactions are experienced as persistently difficult to navigate, distressing, or otherwise viscerally onerous. Encounters with problematic sociality may be connected to underlying social transformations and disruptions. The concept of problematic sociality therefore suggests there is merit in pairing the study of social problems with the study of social change.     

Interest-Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets: Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk

This article addresses the problem of the bias of income and expenditure elasticities estimated on pseudopanel data caused by measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. We gauge these biases empirically by comparing cross-sectional, pseudo-panel, and true panel data from both Polish and U.S. expenditure surveys. Our results suggest that unobserved heterogeneity imparts a downward bias to cross-section estimates of income elasticities of at-home food expenditures and an upward bias to estimates of income elasticities of away-from-home food expenditures. “Within” and first-difference estimators suffer less bias, but only if the effects of measurement error are accounted for with instrumental variables.     

Risk Analysis for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in Extreme Environments

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to AUV operations, the implementation of which requires the elicitation of expert judgment. We conducted a formal judgment elicitation process where eight world experts in AUV design and operation were asked to assign a probability of AUV loss given the emergence of each fault or incident from the vehicle's life history of 63 faults and incidents. After discussing methods of aggregation and analysis, we show how the aggregated risk estimates obtained from the expert judgments were used to create a risk model. To estimate AUV survival with mission distance, we adopted a statistical survival function based on the nonparametric Kaplan‐Meier estimator. We present theoretical formulations for the estimator, its variance, and confidence limits. We also present a numerical example where the approach is applied to estimate the probability that the Autosub3 AUV would survive a set of missions under Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica in January–March 2009.