Floating ideas—An experiment in enhancing hypergames with maps

Within the OR community, an increasing emphasis is being placed on developing approaches to tackle complex, ‘messy’ decision problems. The work described in this paper arose out of the premise that it would be desirable to integrate ideas from a number of different approaches of this type. Specifically, the paper describes one experimental attempt to link methods for modelling conflict situations (the analysis of options and hypergames) with the cognitive mapping approach to eliciting subjective data. Taking a personally-owned decision problem, mapping was used to enrich the game-based approaches by providing a way of documenting the argumentation underlying the models used. Though difficult to generalise from, the experiment not only suggested that such an extension is likely to be an improvement, but also highlighted some deficiencies in the existing versions of the game-based approaches themselves.     

ON BOOTSTRAP HYPOTHESIS TESTING

We describe methods for constructing bootstrap hypothesis tests, illustrating our approach using analysis of variance. The importance of pivotalness is discussed. Pivotal statistics usually result in improved accuracy of level. We note that hypothesis tests and confidence intervals call for different methods of resampling, so as to ensure that accurate critical point estimates are obtained in the former case even when data fail to comply with the null hypothesis. Our main points are illustrated by a simulation study and application to three real data sets.     

India's Falling Sex Ratios

The proportion of females in India's population, low compared to other countries, reached its lowest level this century in the 1991 census. India's low sex ratios—defined here as the number of females relative to the number of males—have been scrutinized for well over a century. The persistent decline in the twentieth century has been the subject of renewed investigation and critical comment over the past two decades. While many explanations for the decline have been offered, almost without exception these have not addressed the causes of the nearly continuous fall observed since 1901. Several possible long-term changes are investigated in this note. The author argues that India's declining sex ratio is primarily an artifact of the dynamics of India's population growth.     

Planning and social change

During his ten years experience of corporate planning in industry the author became increasingly concerned about the relationship between planning and social change. This article, based on a talk given to the Social and Ecological Study Group of the Society for Long Range Planning, explores an approach to environmental appraisal which might make businesses and government agencies more responsive to the needs of a changing society and their products and services correspondingly more socially desirable. The author is currently leading a multidisciplinary team on a study of urban deprivation in Birmingham.     

THE RATE OF CONVERGENCE IN THE NORMAL APPROXIMATION FOR THE WILCOXON R-ESTIMATOR

We exploit the fact that the Wilcoxon score R-estimator of the slope in a linear regression model minimises Gini's mean difference of the residuals to obtain a Berry-Esseen rate of convergence result for the Wilcoxon R-estimator.     

Efficiency in religious organizations

Churches must realize that the management of their human resources is critical. The U.S. Catholic Church in recent years has been this problem take on even more significance with the apparent shortage of priests. This article considers this problem in light of a relatively new methodology, data envelopment analysis, which compares organizations to comparable best-practice units. The authors conclude that the Church would benefit from a better distribution of priests, both within and across dioceses. They also conclude that the use of deacons and priestless parishes can be effective in some circumstances.     

Roads and roadblocks to dual commitment: Similar and dissimilar antecedents of union and company commitment

Dual commitment received wide attention during the 1950s and, after a waning of interest during the 1960s and 1970s, interest has grown anew. In this study of dual commitment we used a model of investment and returns, applied referent theory to it, and grounded the investigation in an industrial relations context at an airline carrier in order to examine both company and union commitment. We found that wages were a positive income elastic good with respect to company commitment, but they were a negative good with respect to union commitment. Information obtained from the firm or the union also resulted in divergencies in the commitments. External labor market variables were unrelated to union commitment, but they were related to company commitment. Finally, job influence and perceptions concerning a labor-management program were positive predictors of the two commitments; as such, they have implications for the way firms and unions may want to build dual commitment. We thank Peter Cappelli, Fritz Drasgow, Peter Feuille, Greg Oldham, Lawrence T. Pinfield, and Dean Tjosvold for helpful comments.