Comparing two survey methods for estimating maternal and perinatal mortality in rural Cambodia

PURPOSE: We need solid estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) to monitor the impact of maternal care programs. Cambodian health authorities and WHO report the MMR in Cambodia at 450 per 100,000 live births. The figure is drawn from surveys where information is obtained by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their adult sisters (sisterhood method). The estimate is statistically imprecise, 95% confidence intervals ranging from 260 to 620/100,000. The MMR estimate is also uncertain due to under-reporting; where 80-90% of women deliver at home maternal fatalities may go undetected especially where mortality is highest, in remote rural areas. The aim of this study was to attain more reliable MMR estimates by using survey methods other than the sisterhood method prior to an intervention targeting obstetric rural emergencies. PROCEDURES: The study was carried out in rural Northwestern Cambodia where access to health services is poor and poverty, endemic diseases, and land mines are endemic. Two survey methods were applied in two separate sectors: a community-based survey gathering data from public sources and a household survey gathering data direct from primary sources. FINDINGS: There was no statistically significant difference between the two survey results for maternal deaths, both types of survey reported mortality rates around the public figure. The household survey reported a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate as compared to the community-based survey, 8.6% versus 5.0%. Also the household survey gave qualitative data important for a better understanding of the many problems faced by mothers giving birth in the remote villages. There are detection failures in both surveys; the failure rate may be as high as 30-40%. PRINCIPLE CONCLUSION: Both survey methods are inaccurate, therefore inappropriate for evaluation of short-term changes of mortality rates. Surveys based on primary informants yield qualitative information about mothers' hardships important for the design of future maternal care interventions.     

The Past in the Present. Lessons on Semiotics of History from George H. Mead and Boris A. Uspensky

This article examines the parallels between George H. Mead's theory of time and Boris A. Uspensky's semiotics of history, looking for implications relevant to the symbolic interactionist theory of historical processes. It suggests that Mead's theory of time and theory of communication hold important implications for semiotic analysis of the historical dimension of sociocultural phenomena. A further aim is to link the symbolic interactionist tradition of the Chicago school with the Tartu school and its semiotics of history. This would fuel the further development of both theoretical orientations.     

"南方谈话"与"三个代表"的伟大历史性贡献之比较

"南方谈话"是对"什么是社会主义,怎样建设社会主义"研究的再深入、再延续,但丝毫没有放松"建设一个什么样的党,怎样建设党"这个基本点;"三个代表"在极力抓好"建设一个什么样的党,怎样建设党"的问题时,丝毫没有脱离"什么是社会主义,怎样建设社会主义"这个大方向.这"一个大方向,一个基本点"都是我国能否实现国富民强业兴的关键之所系.所以,也是我国两代领导核心极力强调,尽力而为,并时时赋予新的内容,常常提出新的要求的原因之所在.     

A survey of time series analysis through parametric models

The paper is a survey of recent works on time series analysis using parametric models. The main emphasis is on linear models, in particular the ARMA model. Usual me¬thods of parameter estimation, goodness of fit tests and the choice of model order are con¬sidered. Some extensions of the methods to related problems are briefly discussed     

Penalized spline joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data

The joint models for longitudinal data and time-to-event data have recently received numerous attention in clinical and epidemiologic studies. Our interest is in modeling the relationship between event time outcomes and internal time-dependent covariates. In practice, the longitudinal responses often show non linear and fluctuated curves. Therefore, the main aim of this paper is to use penalized splines with a truncated polynomial basis to parameterize the non linear longitudinal process. Then, the linear mixed-effects model is applied to subject-specific curves and to control the smoothing. The association between the dropout process and longitudinal outcomes is modeled through a proportional hazard model. Two types of baseline risk functions are considered, namely a Gompertz distribution and a piecewise constant model. The resulting models are referred to as penalized spline joint models; an extension of the standard joint models. The expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm is applied to estimate the parameters in the proposed models. To validate the proposed algorithm, extensive simulation studies were implemented followed by a case study. In summary, the penalized spline joint models provide a new approach for joint models that have improved the existing standard joint models.     

Sustainable landscaping programs in the United States and their potential to encourage conservation and support ecosystem services

Sustainable landscaping programs are voluntary initiatives that recommend a set of practices to improve the environmental quality of urban ecosystems by providing landscaping materials, guidelines, and educational resources. Our goal was to examine the recommendations and outcomes of these programs in the United States and their value for encouraging conservation practices in residential ecosystems. We conducted a comprehensive web search and identified 193 sustainable landscaping programs in the United States. Programs aim to increase native species richness, affordably manage stormwater runoff, and offer residents meaningful experiences with nature. Sustainable landscaping programs present many opportunities to engage people with local ecological knowledge and conservation practices, provide accessible spaces for environmental education, cultivate interdisciplinary research collaborations, and advance inclusion in conservation. However, assessments of their ecological value are rare, leaving many questions surrounding the benefits to biodiversity and water quality afforded by participation. Many programs also require investments in landscaping materials and certification fees that might limit participation by some households. Future work should examine how recommended practices influence urban biodiversity, identify and address barriers to participation, and generate social-ecological knowledge that can inform future programs.

     

埃及现代政党政治的演变

埃及现代政党政治缘起于20世纪初,历经宪政时代、纳赛尔时代和后纳赛尔时代三个阶段.从宪政时代的多党政治到纳赛尔时代的一党政治和后纳赛尔时代政党政治的多元化进程,构成埃及现代政党政治演变的明显轨迹.民族主义政党与民主主义政党的此消彼长、世俗政党与宗教政党的错综交织、议会政党与非议会政党的激烈角逐,集中体现埃及现代化进程中政治层面的历史运动.     

Orthodox BLUP versus h-likelihood methods for inferences about random effects in Tweedie mixed models

Recently, the orthodox best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) method was introduced for inference about random effects in Tweedie mixed models. With the use of h-likelihood, we illustrate that the standard likelihood procedures, developed for inference about fixed unknown parameters, can be used for inference about random effects. We show that the necessary standard error for the prediction interval of the random effect can be computed from the Hessian matrix of the h-likelihood. We also show numerically that the h-likelihood provides a prediction interval that maintains a more precise coverage probability than the BLUP method.     

Redressing Inequity in Parent Care Among Siblings

When inequities occur in the division of labor among adult siblings caring for older parents, conflict may result. This paper uses equity theory as a framework for understanding the processes used by siblings to rectify imbalances in their parental responsibilities. The study is based on a sample of 40 focus group participants who described caregiving relationships among siblings. Consistent with equity theory, these participants used two approaches to redress inequities in their sibling caregiving relationships: requesting behavioral changes from siblings and making cognitive changes. The findings suggest that these two approaches can result in more perceived equity but may also lead to even greater perceived inequity and distress.