The Promise of Prediction Contests

This article examines the prediction contest as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we focus on point-forecasting contests—contests in which forecasters submit point forecasts with a prize going to the entry closest to the quantity of interest. We first illustrate the incentive for forecasters to submit reports that exaggerate in the direction of their private information. Whereas this exaggeration raises a forecaster's mean squared error, it increases his or her chances of winning the contest. And in contrast to conventional wisdom, this nontruthful reporting usually improves the accuracy of the resulting crowd forecast. The source of this improvement is that exaggeration shifts weight away from public information (information known to all forecasters) and by so doing helps alleviate public knowledge bias. In the context of a simple theoretical model of overlapping information and forecaster behaviors, we present closed-form expressions for the mean squared error of the crowd forecasts which will help identify the situations in which point forecasting contests will be most useful.     

Stationarity and invertibility regions for low order starma models

The building of STARMA, space-time autoregressive moving average, models requires a working knowledge of the conditions under which a particular model represents a stationary process. Constraints on the parameter space that ensure stationarity are developed for all STARMA models of autoregressive temporal order le*ss than or equal to two and spatial order less than or equalto one when the model form utilizes scaled weights. Invertibility conditions for these same models are also given.     

Utilizing research in professional practice

A review of the rehabilitation, disability studies, and allied health literature suggests the presence of numerous factors that impede the utilization of research by practitioners. The purpose of this article is to describe these factors and offer potential solutions that could enable rehabilitation professionals to integrate research findings into their practice. Specifically, the authors recommend strategies to (a) contextualize research throughout pre-service curricula, (b) establish researcher-stakeholder partnerships, (c) increase the accessibility of research to practitioners, and (d) establish professional and peer support for implementing research in field practice.     

Reliability in rehabilitation measurement

The article examines reliability as a key component of the psychometric properties of tests and inventories. What is reliability, types of reliability, why is reliability important, and other reliability issues are addressed in a manner that will help Work readers to better understand and apply psychometric considerations in the context of rehabilitation research. The authors contend that reliability is an essential condition for the psychometric soundness of measurement instruments that are used in rehabilitation research and practice.     

The basics of nonparametric statistics

This article introduces readers to the data analytic sub-paradigm of nonparametric statistics. The authors begin with an explanation of how and under what circumstances nonparametric statistics are used, then describe specific nonparametric techniques which are commonly used in social science research. Examples from the contemporary rehabilitation literature are provided throughout the article.     

The written word: literature and leadership

Explore what the current literature is saying about great leaders and leadership. Among the learnings: silence can hurt your organization, story telling is critical for inspiring employees and great leaders must be fearless.     

Effect of ceasing creatine supplementation while maintaining resistance training in older men

The authors previously found that creatine (Cr) combined with 12 weeks of resistance training enhanced muscle strength and endurance and lean tissue mass (LTM) in older men. Their purpose in this study was to assess these variables with cessation of Cr combined with 12 weeks of reduced training (33% lower volume) in a subgroup of these men (n = 8, 73 years old) compared with 5 men (69 years old) who did not receive Cr. Strength (1-repetition maximum [1-RM]), endurance (maximum number of repetitions over 3 sets at 70-80% 1-RM), and LTM (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) were assessed before and after 12 weeks of Cr cessation combined with reduced-volume training. No changes in strength or LTM occurred. Muscle endurance was significantly reduced (7-21%; p <.05), with the rate of change similar between groups. Withdrawal from Cr had no effect on the rate of strength, endurance, and loss of lean tissue mass with 12 weeks of reduced-volume training.     

An ecological approach to facilitate successful employment outcomes among people with multiple chemical sensitivity

Many adults with multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS) must prematurely exit the workforce because of the severity of their MCS symptoms, the resulting disability stigma, and their unmet needs for on-the-job accommodations. To help individuals with MCS continue working or re-enter employment, rehabilitation professionals must understand the barriers resulting in unemployment and implement interventions to reduce or remove those barriers. In this article, the Ecological Model of Career Development is presented as a scheme for identifying barriers and implementing rehabilitation interventions to improve the employment outcomes among people with MCS.