Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions

This paper considers issues related to estimation, inference, and computation with multiple structural changes that occur at unknown dates in a system of equations. Changes can occur in the regression coefficients and/or the covariance matrix of the errors. We also allow arbitrary restrictions on these parameters, which permits the analysis of partial structural change models, common breaks that occur in all equations, breaks that occur in a subset of equations, and so forth. The method of estimation is quasi‐maximum likelihood based on Normal errors. The limiting distributions are obtained under more general assumptions than previous studies. For testing, we propose likelihood ratio type statistics to test the null hypothesis of no structural change and to select the number of changes. Structural change tests with restrictions on the parameters can be constructed to achieve higher power when prior information is present. For computation, an algorithm for an efficient procedure is proposed to construct the estimates and test statistics. We also introduce a novel locally ordered breaks model, which allows the breaks in different equations to be related yet not occurring at the same dates.     

Informed sub-sampling MCMC: approximate Bayesian inference for large datasets

Statistics and Computing - This paper introduces a framework for speeding up Bayesian inference conducted in presence of large datasets. We design a Markov chain whose transition kernel uses an...     

Optimal fertility under age-dependent labour productivity

In the so-called Rapport Sauvy (1962), the French demographer Alfred Sauvy argued that Wallonia’s fertility rate was socially suboptimal, and recommended a 20 % rise of fertility, on the grounds that a society with too low a fertility leads to a low-productive economy composed of old workers having old ideas. This paper examines how Sauvy’s intuition can be incorporated in the Samuelsonian optimal fertility model (Samuelson, Int Econ Rev 16:531–538, 1975). We build a four-period OLG model with physical capital and with two generations of workers (young and old), the skills of the latter being subject to some form of decay. We characterize the optimal fertility rate and show that this equalizes, at the margin, the sum of the capital dilution effect (Solow effect) and the labour age-composition effect (Sauvy effect) with the intergenerational redistribution effect (Samuelson effect). Numerical simulations show that it is hard, from a quantitative perspective, to reconcile Sauvy’s recommendation with facts. This leads us to examine other potential determinants of optimal fertility, by introducing technological progress and a more general social welfare function.     

Pension Schemes Comparison between EEC Countries*

Abstract. A lot of research has been made on macroeconomic spending on the financing of retirement, most of it taking into account demographic evolution. On the other hand, little research has gone into international comparisons that shed more light on the standards of living that are guaranteed after retirement, and on the flexibility and accessibility of public pension schemes. It is a study of this type that we have carried out for 11 member-states of the EEC (Greece having been left out because of its lack of statistics). In this article, we construct an index that reflects the levels of protection that are offered to the aged by the “first pillar” and under the most general conditions. On the basis of a series of important criteria (conditions for access, flexibility, intervention levels, etc.), we calculated an average of the scores for each criterion. These averages are then used to obtain a general score for each country, ranking them against each other relative to the quality of their respective pension schemes.     

Sensitivity to Social Contingency and Positive Emotion in 2‐Month‐Olds

This study was aimed at sorting out conflicting results in the literature concerning 2‐month‐olds' sensitivity to interpersonal contingency, and investigated the potential role of infants' positive emotion in contingency detection. Infants were randomly assigned to an experimental group (EG) that was presented an uninterrupted live–replay–live sequence of three 30‐sec episodes of their mothers' communicative behavior using a double video TV paradigm, or to a control group (CG) that was presented an uninterrupted 90 sec of contingent maternal interactions. Infants of the EG grimaced more than infants of the CG only during the 2nd period of social exchange (replay vs. 2nd live period), but there was an increase of grimacing and a reduction in gazing during the 3rd period of televised interactions in infants of the CG. Each group was split into 2 subgroups a posteriori according to the presence or absence of smiling during the 1st contingent episode. Smiling infants of the EG reacted more negatively during the 2nd interaction period compared to other subgroups. These findings support the view that sensitivity, not fatigue or loss of interest to maternal stimulation, accounts for 2‐month‐olds' expressive changes during noncontingent maternal interactions; fatigue or loss of interest better explains the decline in attention and the increase of negative expressiveness during the last period of contingent interaction. The findings also suggest that the emotional climate of dyadic exchanges could be a contributing factor to infants' ability to detect the relations between their own actions and those of their social partners.     

Impact of a multidimensional intervention programme applied to families at risk for child neglect

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of an intervention programme applied to families at risk for child neglect. Twenty‐nine families were recruited through a Local Community Services Centre (LCSC) and were assigned to two groups: (1) the first group participated in a multidimensional eco‐systemic intervention programme called the Personal, Family and Community Help Program (PFCHP); and (2) the second group underwent psychosocial intervention that was provided as part of regular LCSC services and focused mainly on the social worker–family relationship. Pre‐test measures were obtained at the beginning of intervention for both groups and a follow‐up was held 24 months later. Quantitative and qualitative analyses indicated that both forms of intervention were associated with improved parent–child relationship and the reduction of parental stress, depression and the potential for child abuse and neglect. However, PFCHP participants showed multiple indications of improvement in their social and marital relationships, which was not the case for LCSC participants. The conclusion outlines the need for a long‐term intervention process for families at high risk for child neglect and the necessity of addressing multiple dimensions of family life if lasting changes are to be expected. Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Propensity of Canada's Foreign‐born to Claim Unemployment Insurance Benefits

This article examines the relationship between claiming unemployment insurance benefits in Canada and the immigrant class under which immigrants were admitted (namely skilled workers, assisted relatives, family class, refugees), using a new data set that combines income tax and immigration records. Claims rates (or the proportion of immigrants who claimed unemployment insurance benefits) are calculated for each immigrant landing class for the cohorts of immigrants who landed in 1980, 1985 and 1989; for each cohort, annual claims rates are presented from the year after landing to 1995. The claims rates indicate that there are significant differences among the different immigrant landing classes: those admitted as skilled workers have relatively low claims rates, those in the family class or assisted relatives have higher rates, and refugees have the highest rates. For all immigrant landing classes, claims rates rise rapidly during the two or three years after arrival in Canada, but decline thereafter for all classes. Differences in claims rates on unemployment insurance benefits remain across the immigrant landing classes after general economic conditions and some characteristics of the immigrants are controlled.     

Influence and Complementarity of Follow-on Managerial Innovations within a Public Organization

Public Organization Review - The objective of this research is to explore the relations between different categories of managerial innovations in public organizations. This paper aims to...