是人口红利?还是人口问题?

背景“人口红利”是舶来品,并于近几年在国内迅速流传。“人口红利”所指的就是有利于经济发展的人口年龄结构,即劳动年龄人口占总人口比重较大,抚养比较低,为经济发展创造了有利的人口条件。尽管“人口红利”这一概念在西方是新近产生的,但是早在1980年代,国内学者已经关注中国人口年龄结构的变化对经济发展的影响,讨论中国的快速人口转变将产生人口年龄结构的“黄金时期”,从而对经济发展产生有利影响。“人口红利”是一个人口学概念,更是一个经济学术语。如何理解“人口红利”,“人口红利”如何能够促进经济发展,中国多大程度存在“人口…     

国家人口发展战略研究报告

中国是世界第一人口大国。人口问题始终是制约我国全面协调可持续发展的重大问题,是影响经济社会发展的全局性、长期性和根本性的重大问题。进入21世纪以后,中国人口发展呈现出比上个世纪更加复杂的形势。实现我国经济社会又快又好发展所面临的所有重大问题,都与人口数量、结构、素质、分布密切相关。在人口问题上的任何失误都将对经济社会发展产生难以逆转的长期影响。因此,对中国人口问题的判断和研究是极为重要的课题,国家人口发展战略是国民经济和社会发展的基础性战略。以蒋正华、徐匡迪和宋健为组长的国家人口发展战略课题组完成的《国家人口发展战略研究报告》已经公开发表,经征求国家人口发展战略课题组同意,本刊特全文登载,以满足专家学者的研究需要。     

中国上市公司治理评价系统研究

公司治理理论研究只有满足公司治理实务的需要才能丰富与完善。本文从公司治理实务需求的角度出发,追溯公司治理实务与理论研究发展历程,在此基础上对国际著名公司治理评价系统进行了比较,并提出了适合中国公司治理环境的公司治理评价指标体系。     

“一个中心、两个基本点”基本路线的唯物史观底蕴

文章着眼于19世纪末到20世纪中叶资本主义世界历史演变的规律,着眼于世界社会主义运动的历史发展,着眼于现时代和平与发展的历史潮流的客观要求,分析了党在社会主义初级阶段的“一个中心、两个基本点”的基本路线的唯物史观底蕴,从而在更深的历史层次上和时代高度上揭示了“一个中心、两个基本点”的基本路线的科学性基础。     

The participation of non-governmental organizations in the Philippine population program

In 1957 the National Council of Churches in the Philippines (NCCP) established the Family Welfare Center, offering an educational program in family planning; it was subsequently expanded and reorganized into the Planned Parenthood Movement of the Philippines. Since its creation in 1970 the Philippine Population Program has brought together government, private, and religious activities. Under the 1987-92 development plan nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) will be taking a more active role in the implementation of the population program by contributing to the maternal and child health/family planning and the information, education, and communication (IEC) components. There are more than 50 private organizations engaged in such population activities. These include national women's organizations and development NGOs with a mass base. The Family Planning Organization of the Philippines is carrying out a 3-year comparative study of the effectiveness of community volunteers in the acceptance of natural family planning. The Reproductive Health Philippines has completed a follow-up of Depo Provera defaulters in a previous clinical study of Depo Provera acceptors conducted in 1985-87. IEC support from various medical and social organizations also helped advance family planning and population awareness of the program. The Mary Johnston Hospital and Iglesia ni Kristo have been front-runners in sterilization through their mobile teams and regular clinics. On the negative side, funding constraints are threatening the very existence of some NGOs. Even those that do not face such constraints face problems related to cost effectiveness, priority setting, capability building, and staff development. A survey of the Population Center Foundation identified some urgent concerns: sharing experience in self-reliance, enhancement of the managerial skills of staff, and funding problems. NGOs complement the family planning services of the government as well as focus on the smooth flow of IEC activities.     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 1995

In thousands, Thailand's total population as of July 1, 1995, was 59,450, of which 29,707 were male and 29,743 were female. 18,774 live in urban areas and 40,676 live in rural areas. 11,942 live in the northern region, 19,356 to the northeast, 7443 in the South, 12,897 centrally, and 7812 in the Bangkok metropolis. 17,122 were under age 15, 37,988 aged 15-59, and 4340 aged 60 and over. There were 15,347 women of reproductive ages 15-44. Crude birth and death rates per 1000 population were 17.6 and 5.2, respectively, with an overall natural growth rate of 1.2%. Infant mortality was 30.8 per 1000 live births. Male and female life expectancies at birth were 66.6 and 71.7 years, respectively. Further life expectancies at age 60 for males and females were 18.8 and 22.0 years, respectively. The rate of total fertility per woman was 1.95 with a contraceptive prevalence rate of 74.0% and an anticipated population of 71,860 in the year 2012.     

Population statistics] as of January 1, 1997

In thousands, Thailand's total population as of January 1, 1997, was 60,103, of which 30,034 were male and 30,069 were female. 18,981 live in urban areas and 41,122 live in rural areas. 12,074 live in the northern region, 19,568 to the northeast, 7524 in the South, 13,039 centrally, and 7898 in the Bangkok metropolis. 16,197 were under age 15, 38,856 aged 15-59, and 5050 aged 60 and over. There were 15,558 women of reproductive ages 15-44. Crude birth and death rates per 1000 population were 15.6 and 5.0, respectively, with an overall natural growth rate of 1.1%. Infant mortality was 25.0/1000 live births. Male and female life expectancies at birth were 66.6 and 71.7 years, respectively. Further life expectancies at age 60 for males and females were 18.8 and 22.0 years, respectively. The rate of total fertility per woman was 1.95, with a contraceptive prevalence rate of 75.2% and an anticipated population of 70,627 in the year 2012.     

1981 census evaluation programme in England and Wales

The program developed to evaluate the coverage and quality of results from the 1981 census of England and Wales is described. "A post-enumeration survey was the main tool used, but for the evaluation of census coverage, this was augmented by a series of demographic checks against statistics from other administrative sources. The main conclusion from the coverage checks was that the census probably missed about 241,000 people net (about half of one per cent of the population) including some 36,000 children aged 0-4. At older ages than this, adults aged 16-44 were more likely to be missed than others and males rather more than females. Students and people out of employment were also more likely to be missed than people in employment. The quality of householders' responses to particular census questions was evaluated in a detailed post-enumeration interview survey. The results of this showed that the questions subject to most response error were those on rooms, various aspects of economic activity and the main means of travel to work."     

中国和世界人口发展:理论、问题和对策——首届人口研究前沿与展望国际研讨会综述(英文)

In May 2010,the First International Seminar on Frontiers and Perspectives of Demographic Research and the release of the Demography Volume of the UNESCO-EOLSS (Chinese version),hosted by China Population and Development Research Center(CPDRC) and co-organized by Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies(CHADS) at National School     

城市青年的职业稳定性及其影响因素——基于职业生涯发展阶段理论的实证研究

职业是现代人谋生的主要手段,也是衡量个体社会地位的重要指标。第一份职业一般在青年时期开始,而按照职业生涯发展阶段理论,一个人的职业生涯会经历不同阶段,工作从不稳定趋于相对稳定。文章利用2009年全国四城市抽样调查数据,实证研究了20～34岁青年职业稳定性的特点及其影响因素。分析结果表明,职业变动已经成为当今青年的普遍现象,多数青年都至少更换过1次工作,职业变动次数的均值为3次;职业地位和工作年限对于职业稳定性具有重要的显著影响:从事高端职业者其职业稳定性更强;职业稳定性随工作年限呈现U型非线性变化,证明职业稳定性的拐点恰恰发生在青年时期,总体上20～34岁的青年正处于从职业不稳定向职业稳定过渡阶段。