ESTIMATING WITHIN-HOUSEHOLD CONTACT NETWORKS FROM EGOCENTRIC DATA

Acute respiratory diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Large-scale simulation models are used to predict epidemic dynamics and evaluate the impact of various interventions, but the contact behavior in these models is based on simplistic and strong assumptions which are not informed by survey data. These assumptions are also used for estimating transmission measures such as the basic reproductive number and secondary attack rates. Development of methodology to infer contact networks from survey data could improve these models and estimation methods. We contribute to this area by developing a model of within-household social contacts and using it to analyze the Belgian POLYMOD data set, which contains detailed diaries of social contacts in a 24-hour period. We model dependency in contact behavior through a latent variable indicating which household members are at home. We estimate age-specific probabilities of being at home and age-specific probabilities of contact conditional on two members being at home. Our results differ from the standard random mixing assumption. In addition, we find that the probability that all members contact each other on a given day is fairly low: 0.49 for households with two 0-5 year olds and two 19-35 year olds, and 0.36 for households with two 12-18 year olds and two 36+ year olds. We find higher contact rates in households with 2-3 members, helping explain the higher influenza secondary attack rates found in households of this size.     

So near yet so far: blocked networks,global links and multiple exclusion in the German–Polish borderlands

Abstract The building blocks of global society are conventionally thought of in terms of ‘flows’, ‘scapes’, ‘key nodes’, and ‘global cities’, to name a few. We rarely consider borders and border regions. However, state borders provide a crucial component of a globalizing society in transition. Exhibiting a structural ambivalence, borders can be seedbeds of cosmopolitanism, sites of cultural closure, or often both simultaneously. To understand cross‐border interaction we have to engage with a complex configuration of global and sub‐global dynamics. In this article I argue that borders are revealing analytical tools that must be included in any grounded theory of global change. I draw on fieldwork conducted in the German‐Polish border region, mostly in the German‐Polish twin city Guben/Gubin. Here we are confronted with the simultaneous processes of globalization, European integration and post‐socialist transformation.     

Envisioning upland futures: Stakeholder responses to scenarios for Europe's mountain landscapes

In a period of agricultural decline in the uplands of Europe, agriculture is ceasing to provide the primary rationale for the organisation, utilisation and functioning of rural space. Policy reform, market trends and changes to the way citizens and consumers think about the countryside all suggest a need for thinking strategically about the future development of these areas. However, without a broad involvement of stakeholders, land use conflicts, and social and cultural conflicts in general, may increase. Involving stakeholders in upland areas can be facilitated by using scenario technique and by discussing alternative futures in local stakeholder panels. In this paper we present four scenarios of land-use change for the year 2030, and their assessments by stakeholder panels in Scotland, France, Norway, Switzerland, Slovakia and Greece. The aim of the paper is to explore the ways in which stakeholders in these locations advocate and assess these scenarios. We also explore how stakeholders in different countries weight the visual landscape impacts, the livelihood and biodiversity aspects of the scenarios in their assessment, and the reasons for their prioritising. The cross-country analysis shows that stakeholders across the study areas are united in their overall rejection of agricultural liberalisation, advocating a production-oriented, but multifunctional and environmentally-friendly agriculture that maintains landscapes and biodiversity.     

The Social Process Behind Inequalities in Children's Mental Health: Incorporating an Illness Career Framework

More advantaged children (both in terms of social class and racial/ethnic membership) appear protected from symptoms of mental health problem, but a pattern has emerged in which these children who tend to have better mental health are more likely to be diagnosed with certain mental health disorders. These patterns have led some researchers and professionals to wonder if the qualifications for diagnosis are culturally biased or might unfairly favor the mental health needs of more advantaged individuals in society. Evidence that White and middle‐class children are more likely to be diagnosed with certain mental health disorders raises important and legitimate concerns about the mental health profession, but this problem of social advantage leading to mental health diagnosis has often overlooked the role of social process in how children become diagnosed. Mental health diagnoses represent the culmination of a process that involves several stages and requires initiation and (often times) persistence on the part of the individual being diagnosed. This idea of process has previously been referred to as the “illness career,” and applying this logic to the study of children opens the door for renewed inquiry into understanding who is and who is not diagnosed with a mental health problem.     

Effects of child support pass-through and disregard policies on in-kind child support

This paper examines whether states’ elimination of child support disregards for welfare payments after welfare reform caused non-custodial parents to increase in-kind support. I use longitudinal data from the Survey of Program Dynamics and take advantage of state and year variation in child support disregard policies before and after the 1996 welfare reform to identify effects of the disregard on in-kind support. I find that a $100 decrease in the disregard corresponds to a 3.2 percentage point increase in the probability a child will receive in-kind child support.     

Contraceptive acceptance and pregnancy: a matrix approach to the analysis of competing risks

Abstract This paper represents an initial attempt to formalize the relationships among post-partum sterility, fecundability, and contraceptive acceptance in terms of absorbing Markov chains. Acceptance of contraception offered by family planning programmes is analyzed as a possible event in time for a cohort of recently delivered women as they pass through phases of temporary sterility and fecundability towards another possible pregnancy. The results of the study indicate that once a woman leaves the post-partum anovulatory stage, the probability of her becoming pregnant again is large compared to the competing rates of contraceptive acceptance currently in force. Unless highly fecund non-contracepting women are approached by family planning programmes shortly after a pregnancy has been terminated (by childbirth or abortion), they will quickly become ineligible to accept either the pill or IUD because of once again being 'currently pregnant'.     

Conveying campus sexual misconduct policy information to college and university students: Results from a 7-campus study

ABSTRACT

Objective: To examine the efficacy of different methods (ie, in-class policy reading; in-class policy reading and discussion; no reading or discussion) to deliver campus sexual misconduct policy information to students on 7 campuses. Participants: A total of 1,195 participants at 7 colleges and universities participated in the study from August to October 2014. Participants were randomly assigned at the class level and completed pretest and posttest surveys assessing knowledge of campus policy and resources and confidence to seek help for sexual assault. Results: Students exposed to a larger dosage of material (in-class policy reading plus discussion) showed greater positive changes in attitudes and knowledge than students who did not receive information or were only read the policy. However, on some indices, students who were only read the policy showed positive outcomes compared with students receiving no intervention. Conclusion: Colleges and universities must use engaging methods to disseminate campus sexual misconduct policies to students.     

Some effects of spouse separation on fertility

Simple probability models incorporating an approximation first demonstrated by Menken (1979) are used to study births averted by two classes of temporary spouse separation, single and cyclic, under conditions of natural fertility. For either class of spouse separation, births averted increases disproportionately with longer separation. For a given length of separation, births prevented are more sensitive to change in length of anovulation than to change in level ofnatural fecundability or risk of spontaneous abortion. In addition, by means of the macrosimulation model REPMOD (Bongaarts, 1977), it is shown that the fertility impact of temporary spouse separation tends to decrease as couples age.     

Extrapolation of IUD continuation curves

Summary Calculation of the number of contraceptive acceptors needed to register predesignated effects on birth or growth rates presupposes that it is known for how long couples practise each contraceptive method. Life table techniques may be used to estimate proportions continuing with a given method: but most follow-up studies yield data for durations no longer than from two to three years. To estimate continuation rates for the longer durations relevant to a five-or ten-year target period, the curve of continuation must be extrapolated. Four functions, including the one most commonly used and three new ones, are compared on the basis of data from the Taichung IUD Follow-up Study that commands an effective observation period of eight years. This unusual length makes it possible to perform the experiment of pretending that observation length is only one, two, … five years and then compare results based on these varyingly abbreviated spans with those based on the full observation period. No one of the four functions is found to be ideal under all circumstances. A strategy for choosing among the functions is suggested.