THE VALUE OF RISK: MEASURING THE SERVICE OUTPUT OF U.S. COMMERCIAL BANKS

Banks often charge implicitly for their services via interest spreads, instead of explicit fees. Much of bank output thus has to be estimated indirectly. In contrast to current statistical practice, dynamic optimizing models of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find that in the U.S. National Accounts between 1997 and 2007, bank output was overestimated by 21% and gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.3%. Compared with current methods, our new estimates imply more plausible estimates of the income share of capital and the return on fixed capital of the banking industry. (JEL E01, E44, O47)     

HOME COMPUTERS AND EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM THE NLSY97 and CPS*

Although computers are universal in the classroom, nearly 20 million children in the United States do not have computers in their homes. Surprisingly, only a few previous studies explore the role of home computers in the educational process. Home computers might be very useful for completing school assignments, but they might also represent a distraction for teenagers. We use several identification strategies and panel data from the two main U.S. data sets that include recent information on computer ownership among children—the 2000–2003 Current Population Survey (CPS) Computer and Internet Use Supplements matched to the CPS basic monthly files and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97)—to explore the causal relationship between computer ownership and high school graduation and other educational outcomes. Teenagers who have access to home computers are 6–8 percentage points more likely to graduate from high school than teenagers who do not have home computers after controlling for individual, parental, and family characteristics. We generally find evidence of positive relationships between home computers and educational outcomes using several identification strategies, including controlling for typically unobservable home environment and extracurricular activities in the NLSY97, fixed effects models, instrumental variables, and including future computer ownership and falsification tests. Home computers may increase high school graduation by reducing nonproductive activities, such as truancy and crime, among children in addition to making it easier to complete school assignments (JEL I2).     

THE IMPACT OF OWI ON BROADCASTING

A MARKED difference between the public opinion situation facinginformation specialists in this war and that in 1917 is thefact that during the last twenty-five years radio has come ofage. Never before have governments had available for use suchan important instrument of propaganda. Has the OWI taken fulladvantage of its potentialities? Mr. Landry was asked to appraiseAmerica's use of this weapon since Pearl Harbor. For ten years the author has been observing American radio fromthe platform of the radio editorship of Variety. He has listenedto and analyzed thousands of radio broadcasts. At present heis director of program writing for CBS and also a member ofthe Writers War Board.     

On Developing 'representations from presentations'; Observing the Laws of the Natural and Social Worlds

Abstract This essay examines the use of object lessons as a component of 19th century Ontario educational practice, and demonstrates their development to interactive lessons in moral and cultural observation. It is demonstrated that the laws of nature and society were perceived as parallel systems of order. The essay then demonstrates the use of these pedagogical forms in the management of classroom situations.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CURRENCY UNIONS

We develop a new instrumental-variable (IV) approach to estimate the effects of different exchange rate regimes on bilateral outcomes. The basic idea is that the characteristics of the exchange rate between two countries are partially related to the independent decisions of these countries to peg—explicitly or de facto—to a third currency, notably that of a main anchor. This component of the exchange rate regime can be used as an IV in regressions of bilateral outcomes. We apply the methodology to study the economic effects of currency unions. The likelihood that two countries independently adopt the currency of the same anchor country is used as an instrument for whether they share a common currency. We find that sharing a common currency enhances trade, increases price comovements, and decreases the comovement of real gross domestic product shocks. ( JEL C3, F3, F4)     

Using a Markov Chain to Construct a Tractable Approximation of an Intractable Probability Distribution

Abstract.  Let π denote an intractable probability distribution that we would like to explore. Suppose that we have a positive recurrent, irreducible Markov chain that satisfies a minorization condition and has π as its invariant measure. We provide a method of using simulations from the Markov chain to construct a statistical estimate of π from which it is straightforward to sample. We show that this estimate is 'strongly consistent' in the sense that the total variation distance between the estimate and π converges to 0 almost surely as the number of simulations grows. Moreover, we use some recently developed asymptotic results to provide guidance as to how much simulation is necessary. Draws from the estimate can be used to approximate features of π or as intelligent starting values for the original Markov chain. We illustrate our methods with two examples.