DO HIGHER TOBACCO TAXES REDUCE ADULT SMOKING? NEW EVIDENCE OF THE EFFECT OF RECENT CIGARETTE TAX INCREASES ON ADULT SMOKING

There is a general consensus among policymakers that raising tobacco taxes reduces cigarette consumption. However, evidence that tobacco taxes reduce adult smoking is relatively sparse. In this paper, we extend the literature in two ways: using data from the Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements we focus on recent, large tax changes, which provide the best opportunity to empirically observe a response in cigarette consumption, and employ a novel paired difference‐in‐differences technique to estimate the association between tax increases and cigarette consumption. Estimates indicate that, for adults, the association between cigarette taxes and either smoking participation or smoking intensity is negative, small, and not usually statistically significant. Our evidence suggests that increases in cigarette taxes are associated with small decreases in cigarette consumption and that it will take sizable tax increases, on the order of 100%, to decrease smoking by as much as 5%. (JEL I18, I12)     

STRATEGIC EXCLUSION OF THE HIGHEST‐VALUED BIDDERS IN WHOLESALE AUTOMOBILE AUCTIONS

By restricting bidders to be qualified dealers, wholesale automobile auctions exclude the bidders who place the highest value on the vehicles: consumers. This article provides an explanation for this puzzling entry restriction by modeling the inventory‐management decisions of a firm. If an automobile dealer has more vehicles in inventory than is optimal, it cannot reduce its inventory by selling directly to consumers without impacting the demand for the automobiles that remain. However, if the dealer sells his/her excess inventory to a competitor, the demand for his/her remaining vehicles increases as the competitor responds by acquiring fewer additional vehicles. We demonstrate that for any market demand function and any cost of the competitor acquiring additional vehicles, a dealer with excess inventory does better by selling a subset of its vehicles to a competitor rather than directly to consumers. We discuss the market for wholesale automobiles in relation to other markets where goods are also auctioned but where entry is not restricted to qualified dealers. Doing so allows us to compare our inventory‐management explanation to common explanations provided by industry practitioners. We find that intuitive alternative stories do not consistently explain practices across markets. (JEL D44, L11, L62)     

Decision support for multi-family aggregate production planning

Aggregate production planning decisions are inter mediate range decisions that can have a significant impact on both productivity and profitability. In this paper, we examine an interactive computer-based method that provides decision support for the aggregate planner. The proposed approach combines the judgement of the planner with the optimization of subproblems to arrive at an effective solution for multi-family aggregate production planning problems. In the interactive approach, the planner exercises direct control over sensitive workforce levels and production capacities. A network flow sub-problem solver is used to generate optimal production plans and inventory levels given the user-specified production capacities. Decision aids are provided to help the planner achieve a cost-effective solution that is consistent with judgement concerning workforce levels. Computational testing on five test problems indicates that very cost-effective solutions can be obtained. The results of applying the interactive method to a real-world problem are also reported.     

Sydney, 1901: Federation,National Identity and the Arches of Commemoration

Triumphal arches are part of a long tradition of urban spectacle. They were employed in colonial and early postcolonial Australian cities to mark major state events including centenaries and royal visits. They signposted the official parade route for the inauguration of the Australian Commonwealth in Sydney on 1 January 1901. This article describes the temporary arches and the events leading up to them in the context of the Federation movement and the urban development of Sydney. It explores what the arches expressed of contemporary Australia, and how their unitary classicism both conveyed and represented more complex cultural meanings.     

Social Work -- an aspiring Profession and its Difficulties

Summary Social Workers are under pressure to firmly establish theiroccupation as a profession. The purpose of this paper is tofocus attention on two rather neglected areas in the debateabout professionalization. Firstly, to suggest a more helpfulway in which to analyse the evolution of a profession than isconventionally accepted. And secondly, to question the validityof the kind of strategies appropriate to this process for thosewho would identify with the dispossessed in our society     

Political Extremism--Left, Center, and Right

This paper formalizes Lipset's theory of political extremism and applies its axioms and derivations to guide empirical research. A latent structure analysis of measures of the issues from a survey of the 1992 U.S. electorate produced a three-class Left-Center-Right classification of voters. Given that ideological consistency may indicate a propensity toward political extremism, this study finds that this propensity now is strongest in the Right class and not in the Left and Center classes.     

DO STATES FREE RIDE IN ANTITRUST ENFORCEMENT?

Recent research has documented a substantial role in antitrust enforcement by U.S. states. While many of the cases litigated involve small local firms, a nontrivial portion encompasses multiple‐state issues. Some previous literature has investigated whether states engage in free‐riding behavior in environmental regulation, and whether governments free ride on private decisions in provision of public goods. In this paper, we analyze a sample of antitrust cases involving cross‐state impacts (from the Multi‐State Antitrust Database, provided by the National Association of Attorneys General) and explain the determinants of free riding (which we define as participating in a case, but not as a lead plaintiff). (JEL L40, H41, H77)     

GAME THEORY FOR PLAYING GAMES: SOPHISTICATION IN A NEGATIVE-EXTERNALITY EXPERIMENT

We explore the extent to which the lack of Nash payoff maximization in experimental games is attributable to the "sophistication" of participants (i.e., their understanding of strategic decision making and profit-maximizing decisions). To this end, we compare the behaviors of sophisticated participants (i.e., those who have been exposed to the concepts of game theory) against those of a more standard subject pool in a moral hazard environment. Results suggest that sophisticated subjects are significantly more likely to adopt strategies predicted by standard theory and arrive at a Nash equilibrium. ( JEL C72, C91, C92, D63, D64)     

Performance of Robust GCV and Modified GCV for Spline Smoothing

Abstract. While it is a popular selection criterion for spline smoothing, generalized cross‐validation (GCV) occasionally yields severely undersmoothed estimates. Two extensions of GCV called robust GCV (RGCV) and modified GCV have been proposed as more stable criteria. Each involves a parameter that must be chosen, but the only guidance has come from simulation results. We investigate the performance of the criteria analytically. In most studies, the mean square prediction error is the only loss function considered. Here, we use both the prediction error and a stronger Sobolev norm error, which provides a better measure of the quality of the estimate. A geometric approach is used to analyse the superior small‐sample stability of RGCV compared to GCV. In addition, by deriving the asymptotic inefficiency for both the prediction error and the Sobolev error, we find intervals for the parameters of RGCV and modified GCV for which the criteria have optimal performance.