Recalibration of the Grunow–Finke Assessment Tool to Improve Performance in Detecting Unnatural Epidemics

Successful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow–Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, including eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks. Three steps were involved: (i) removing criteria, (ii) changing weighting factors, and (iii) adding and refining criteria. We created a series of alternative models to examine the changes on the parameter likelihood of unnatural outbreaks until we found a model that correctly identified all the unnatural outbreaks and natural ones. Finally, the recalibrated GFT was tested and validated with data from an unnatural and natural outbreak, respectively. A total of 238 models were tested. Through the removal of criteria, increasing or decreasing weighting factors of other criteria, adding a new criterion titled “special insights,” and setting a new threshold for likelihood, we increased the sensitivity of the GFT from 38% to 100%, and retained the specificity at 100% in detecting unnatural epidemics. Using test data from an unnatural and a natural outbreak, the recalibrated GFT correctly classified their etiology. The recalibrated GFT could be integrated into routine outbreak investigation by public health institutions and agencies responsible for biosecurity.     

Multi-objective multi-verse optimiser for integrated two-sided assembly sequence planning and line balancing

Research in assembly optimisation is presently inclined towards integrative measures. Several benefits of simultaneously optimised Assembly Sequence Planning (ASP) and Assembly Line Balancing (ALB) have been highlighted by researchers to have better solution quality, shorter time-to-market, and minimalised error during planning. Recently, several efforts have been made to realise integrated assembly optimisation. However, none of the published research considered the two-sided assembly line problem. This paper presents an integrated ASP and ALB optimisation in a two-sided assembly environment (2S-ASPLB), which is mainly adopted in automotive assembly process. In this study, the 2S-ASPLB problem was formulated and optimised using Multi-Objective Multi-Verse Optimiser (MOMVO) by considering line efficiency, reorientation penalty, and tool change as the optimisation objectives. The computational experiments were conducted in a few stages, beginning with the identification of the best decoding approach for 2S-ASPLB. Next, the best MOMVO coefficient was studied, followed by comparing MOMVO performance with well-established multi-objective optimisation algorithms. Finally, a case study problem was presented to demonstrate applicability of the proposed model and algorithm in real-life problem. The results indicated that the priority factor (PF) decoding approach had better performance compared with others. Meanwhile, in comparison with well-established algorithms, MOMVO performed better in convergence and solution distribution. The case study results indicated the applicability of proposed 2S-ASPLB model and algorithm to improve line efficiency in assembly line. The main contribution of the research is a new 2S-ASPLB model and optimisation scheme, which can assist manufacturer in designing better assembly layout.

     

Role of Socioeconomic Status and Political Participation in Construction of Apathy Among Youth

Youth are considered an important segment of a country’s population. This article explores the effect of socioeconomic status on apathy among youth. It also tries to determine the association between apathy and political participation. Data were collected from four universities through a self-structured questionnaire given to students. A field survey was used to collect 882 questionnaires. Data were entered in SPSS, and data analysis was done by using ordinal regression analysis. A medium level of apathy (75.5%) and political participation (46.0%) was prevalent among educated youth. Results revealed a significant effect of number of siblings, age, gender, education, father’s education, and mother’s education on apathy. An association was also found between apathy and political participation.     

Measuring Support Provisions for People Living With Disabilities in South Asia: An Accessibility Index

ABSTRACT

The terms “empowerment,” “rights,” and “inclusiveness” are now commonly used in public policy, but little emphasis is placed on “accessibility” issues in the integration of disabled people. This article proposes a composite index to measure economic support provisions, such as employment, vocational training, microfinance, and safety nets. The index was tested in a case study (N= 245) of two districts in Pakistan. Results support a “cost/benefit”-based philosophy, rather than the “means–ends” goal, where the disabled poor are viewed as unproductive and risky payers, instead of giving them an opportunity to exercise their potential. Change for the disadvantaged poor can be brought about with the mandatory use of this index in local annual audits. Future research might examine the impact of the index and standardize it for global use.     

Good Mothers,Bad Mothers

This paper reports on an analysis of representations of child abuse in English-language newspapers in Malaysia. Certain media images of mothers recur: bad mothers who are unable to protect their children; and good mothers, who are feminine representatives of a maternalised national government which is charged with interceding on behalf of abused children. Mothers implicated in child abuse are harshly judged by the maternalist regime. Our findings resonate with previous feminist analyses of child abuse but manifest differently in a non-Western, non-Christian context. In Malaysia, motherhood plays a crucial role in nationalist political culture; women and mothers carry increasing economic, social and political burdens in the rapidly modernising state. Fathers are largely marginal or absent in media reporting of child abuse, while mothers are represented as fully responsible for the care of children, particularly when problems occur. The media's blaming of child abuse on social changes while valorising traditional families reflects a conservative, patriarchal perspective, occluding discussion of the contexts of child abuse and thus mitigating against comprehensive solutions.     

Estimation of finite population variance in successive sampling using multi-auxiliary variables

ABSTRACT

In this paper, a general class of estimators for estimating the finite population variance in successive sampling on two occasions using multi-auxiliary variables has been proposed. The expression of variance has also been derived. Further, it has been shown that the proposed general class of estimators is more efficient than the usual variance estimator and the class of variance estimators proposed by Singh et al. (2011) when we used more than one auxiliary variable. In addition, we support this with the aid of numerical illustration.     

Fractionally integrated ARMA for crude palm oil prices prediction: case of potentially overdifference

Dealing with stationarity remains an unsolved problem. Some of the time series data, especially crude palm oil (CPO) prices persist towards nonstationarity in the long-run data. This dilemma forces the researchers to conduct first-order difference. The basic idea is that to obtain the stationary data that is considered as a good strategy to overcome the nonstationary counterparts. An opportune remark as it is, this proxy may lead to overdifference. The CPO prices trend elements have not been attenuated but nearly annihilated. Therefore, this paper presents the usefulness of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model as the solution towards the nonstationary persistency of CPO prices in the long-run data. In this study, we employed daily historical Free-on-Board CPO prices in Malaysia. A comparison was made between the ARFIMA over the existing autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Here, we employed three statistical evaluation criteria in order to measure the performance of the applied models. The general conclusion that can be derived from this paper is that the usefulness of the ARFIMA model outperformed the existing ARIMA model.     

Normality Test Based on a Truncated Mean Characterization

This article generalizes a characterization based on a truncated mean to include higher truncated moments, and introduces a new normality goodness-of-fit test based on the truncated mean. The test is a weighted integral of the squared distance between the empirical truncated mean and its expectation. A closed form for the test statistic is derived. Assuming known parameters, the mean and the variance of the test are derived under the normality assumption. Moreover, a limiting distribution for the proposed test as well as an approximation are obtained. Also, based on Monte Carlo simulations, the power of the test is evaluated against stable, symmetric, and skewed classes of distributions. The test proves compatibility with prominent tests and shows higher power for a wide range of alternatives.