Statistical methods of dimension reduction and classification are used to obtain homogeneous local-area clustering with regard
to the most relevant demographic parameters. The dimension reduction is conducted in two stages using Principal Component
Analysis and a modified k-mean procedure is proposed to determine the final clusters. This clustering will be useful in future
demographic studies at a local level, in particular to obtain forecasts of demographic rates and population projections. The
region of Castile and León in Spain is used to illustrate the method. A Poisson model is used to explore the advantages of
the new clustering over the more conventional classification based on provinces. 相似文献
Intentional condomless anal sex in HIV-risk contexts ("barebacking") has been heatedly debated in gay circles, the gay media, and, to a lesser degree, the mainstream media. Yet it has received little attention in the scientific literature. In order to better understand the reasons behind this behavior, we conducted a content analysis of messages posted on an Internet message board following Gay.com's decision to close a company-sponsored bareback chat room. Individuals posting messages self-identified in their online profiles as being mostly White/ European gay men residing in the US, with an average age of 35 years. Out of 130 messages, 62 (48%) were pro-barebacking, 55 (42%) were against barebacking, and 13 (10%) referred to other topics. The content analysis of the messages showed that both those in favor of and against barebacking felt well-informed about HIV/AIDS and the risks of HIV transmission. Those in favor considered condomless sex more enjoyable than sex with condoms (both in actual experience and in erotic imagery), felt that condomless sex conferred a sense of freedom, minimized the risks involved in barebacking (assuming that practitioners were already HIV infected and that the risk of superinfection was small), and ultimately believed that barebacking was a personal decision and responsibility. Those against barebacking believed the behavior was dangerous, advocated for condom use and personal and social responsibility, and felt barebackers needed to be sensitized to the burdens of HIV disease. Implications of these results are discussed, pointing out the need for further scientific inquiry in this area. 相似文献
Social Indicators Research - United Nations Development Program presented the Human Development Index for ranking the countries with regard to three dimensions, namely being knowledgeable, a long... 相似文献
Social workers may play an important role in the implementation of welfare policies targeted at the poor. Their norms, beliefs, and attitudes form local anti-poverty programmes and affect discretionary practices with their clients. Despite this, we know little about how social workers’ exposure to poverty shapes their attitudes towards poverty and their causal attributions for poverty. This study investigates social workers’ poverty explanations and the extent to which they depend on the level of local poverty. Data from a survey conducted among Hungarian social workers were analysed using multilevel linear regression models. To measure local poverty, we used a composite index of poverty, as well as a subjective measure of exposure to poverty. Our analysis revealed that most social workers explained poverty with structural causes, but individual blame was also frequent. Contrary to our hypothesis, the level of local poverty did not significantly increase the adoption of structural explanations but did raise the occurrence of individualistic ones. However, the effect of local poverty was non-linear: social workers tended to blame the poor for their poverty in the poorest municipalities, where multiple disadvantages are concentrated, while moderate poverty did not lead to such opinions. Our results suggest that efforts should be made to improve the poverty indicator framework to better understand the phenomenon of spatial concentration of multiple disadvantages and its consequences for the poor.
Social Indicators Research - Exploring the spatial variation of regional social inequality allows the design of public policies; therefore, this study analyzes this phenomenon in the Metropolitan... 相似文献
Journal of Population Research - This paper examines the childbearing behaviour of Polish migrant women and their descendants in Sweden. Also considering stayers in the country of origin, we rely... 相似文献
In this article, we examine the contradictions and lack of consistency between various levels of discourse relating to Roma educational policies. Policy-makers have claimed that political interventions would positively impact the progress of Roma. However, the results have been mixed. We argue here that teachers need to re-evaluate their roles as politically aware and culturally informed agents in order to guarantee social justice to a historically disadvantaged ethnic minority. Based on ethnographical fieldwork carried out over a two-year period with Spanish Roma children, both in schools and in their families, this study shows how intercultural policies have failed to impact the educational realities of Roma children. 相似文献
Evaluation designs for social programs are developed assuming minimal or no disruption from external shocks, such as natural disasters. This is because extremely rare shocks may not make it worthwhile to account for them in the design. Among extreme shocks is the 2010 Chile earthquake. Un Buen Comienzo (UBC), an ongoing early childhood program in Chile, was directly affected by the earthquake. This article discusses (a) the factors the UBC team considered for deciding whether to put on hold or continue implementation and data collection for this experimental study; and (b) how the team reached consensus on those decisions. A lesson learned is that the use of an experimental design for UBC insured that the evaluation's internal validity was not compromised by the earthquake's consequences, although cohort comparisons were compromised. Other lessons can be transferred to other contexts where external shocks affect an ongoing experimental or quasi-experimental impact evaluation. 相似文献
We develop a model of the market for federal funds that explicitly accounts for its two distinctive features: banks have to search for a suitable counterparty, and once they meet, both parties negotiate the size of the loan and the repayment. The theory is used to answer a number of positive and normative questions: What are the determinants of the fed funds rate? How does the market reallocate funds? Is the market able to achieve an efficient reallocation of funds? We also use the model for theoretical and quantitative analyses of policy issues facing modern central banks. 相似文献
Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate whether misaligned or uncertain ambitions in adolescence influence the process of socioeconomic attainment. Methods: Using 34 years of longitudinal data from the British Cohort Study (BCS70), we considered whether youth with (1) misaligned ambitions (i.e., those who either over- or underestimate the level of education required for their desired occupation), (2) both low occupational aspirations and educational expectations (low-aligned ambitions), and (3) uncertainty with regard to their future occupations (uncertain ambitions) at age 16 experienced more unemployment spells, lower educational attainment, and lower hourly wages in adulthood compared to youth with high occupational aspirations and educational expectations (high-aligned ambitions). Results: Youth who hold misaligned or uncertain aspirations show long-term deficits in employment stability and educational attainment, which in turn leads to lower wage attainments at age 34. Conclusion: Misaligned and uncertain ambitions in adolescence compromise the construction of life paths and the realization of long-term educational and occupational goals. 相似文献