Successful societies: Decision-making and the quality of attentiveness

Combining moral philosophy with sociological theory to build on themes introduced in Hall and Lamont’s Successful Societies (2009), the paper outlines a distinctive perspective. It holds that a necessary condition of successful societies is that decision-makers base their decisions on a high level of attentiveness (concern and comprehension) towards subjectively valued and morally legitimate forms of life. Late modern societies consist of a plurality of forms of life, each providing grounds for what Alasdair MacIntyre has called internal goods—valued and morally valuable practices. The status of such goods is examined, and distinctions are drawn between their manifest and latent, and transposable and situationally specific, characteristics. We integrate this refined idea of internal goods into a developed conception of habitus that is both morally informed and situationally embedded. The sociological approach of strong structuration theory (SST) is employed to demonstrate how this conception of habitus can guide the critique of decision-making that damages internal goods. We identify the most pervasive and invidious forms of damaging decision-making in contemporary societies as those involving excessive forms of instrumental reasoning. We argue that our developed conception of habitus, anchored in the collectively valued practices of specific worlds, can be a powerful focus for resistance. Accounts of scholarship in higher education and of the white working class in America illustrate the specificities of singular, particular, social worlds and illuminate critical challenges raised by the perspective we advocate.     

Reversals of preference between compound and simple risks: The role of editing heuristics

A reversal of preference between compound and simple risks was demonstrated in the context of compound gambles with loss elements transparently in common. The role of predecision editing heuristics in this violation of the Invariance Principle was explored in a process-tracing study. Verbal reports showed thatcancellation-by-similarity andamalgamation heuristics were differentially applied to simple and compound risks depending on their similarity structure. It was argued that such heuristics are often useful in simplifying complex choice problems without loss of important information. However, the inappropriate cancellation of elements of compound risks can be maladaptive, and can contribute to a lack of insight into the true nature of these risks.     

Local Voices in an Internal Market: The Case of Community Health Services*

This paper presents findings from a study of contract specification and implementation in community health services (CHS). In this paper, we focus on one aspect of that study: the role of local people in informing the assessment of health needs and in determining the provision of community health services in the context of the NHS “internal market”. The paper is based on fieldwork undertaken in three districts within one region. Analysis of data obtained from these localities suggests that while there appears to be a genuine commitment to the principle of local involvement, ideas about how that involvement can be built into the activities of either purchasers or providers are less transparent.     

Predicting falls in older women

Falls among older people are common and their occurrence is associated with detrimental effects on physical and psychosocial functioning. However, falls are not an inevitable consequence of ageing and there is growing evidence of effective interventions to prevent them. Accurate screening methods to identify high-risk populations are important if such strategies are to be cost-efficient. Epidemiological studies have identified a diverse group of risk factors for falls of different types in a variety of settings and patient groups. These have proved useful in delineating high-risk groups and have propagated a range of risk assessment tools for falls. Without an accepted taxonomy for the reporting of trials testing these instruments, direct comparison of results has been difficult. In frail older people, 'multi factorial assessment tools' have achieved some utility in the discrimination of fallers from non-fallers, whereas performance-based 'functional mobility assessments' appear to be more suited to predicting falls in groups of more active elders. The predictive value of these measures has been hampered by the complex and dynamic interaction between attendant risk factors and their variable influence in populations of different frailty profiles. Furthermore, current indices used in the prediction of falls are built upon statistical methodologies employing logistic regression, which fail to account for the breadth and depth of these associations in populations at risk of falling. Statistical representations more consistent with the complex modelling required in the design of falls risk assessment trials, such as tree classification techniques, may provide better results in future studies that aim to generate accurate predictors of falls.     

Shot at Dawn: Late photography and the anti-war memorial

The military executions of World War One are the subject of Chloe Dewe Mathews’s 2014 photographic series Shot at Dawn. These events—in which hundreds of soldiers were court-martialled and executed for cowardice and desertion—remain controversial, without consensus or established collective narrative. This article charts historic negotiations with the subject but also considers more recent efforts to integrate these proceedings within memorial practice. World War One remembrance activities, whilst diverse, have often emphasised sacrifice, heroism and community. Correspondingly, participation and engagement were core values in the major British World War One centenary arts project, titled 14-18 NOW, from which Shot at Dawn was commissioned. Chloe Dewe Mathews’s contribution to the programme, however, presents a photographic aesthetic of resistance to the principles of inclusivity and remembrance elsewhere embraced by the project. As such, the work challenges the consensual politics of commemoration and—through the practices of late photography, land art and performance pilgrimage—substitutes trauma and forgetfulness for reconciliation and memory.     

Performing the limits of finance

Recent financial turmoil has put emphasis once again on the very meaning and reach of ‘finance’. In doing so, recent financial crises have also provoked questions about the very ‘ends’ of finance: Where are the borders of finance? Given the expansive reach of financial innovation over the past two decades, are there any serious limits to the kinds of practices that can be converted into financial objects? Does the culture of finance (expansive and all encompassing) encounter meaningful interruptions? This paper explores these questions by reviewing a cluster of public-art responses to the 2008 financial crisis mounted by artists critical of the expansive logic of financial abstraction. This paper pays particular attention to the work of Fergal McCarthy and Fred Forest, two public artists who have confronted finance and its rational culture with practices of gameplay, whimsy, and carnival. In doing so, these artists invoke a strategy designed to lay the all-encompassing claims of financial abstraction alongside its own impossibility; alongside performances which undermine the expansive claims of financial abstraction. These are strategies, I conclude, which can interrupt the technocratic discourses which dominate the contemporary cultures of finance; strategies which, in the words of one artist, evoke ‘plausible states of uncertainty’ about our faith in financial abstraction.     

Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models

When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and interpretable functions of rates. The product-ratio functional forecasting method models and forecasts the geometric mean of subpopulation rates and the ratio of subpopulation rates to product rates. Coherence is imposed by constraining the forecast ratio function through stationary time series models. The method is applied to sex-specific data for Sweden and state-specific data for Australia. Based on out-of-sample forecasts, the coherent forecasts are at least as accurate in overall terms as comparable independent forecasts, and forecast accuracy is homogenized across subpopulations.     

How to take a penalty

When Rob Eastaway told friends he was embarking on a project to write a book about the maths of sport, they didn't hear the word "maths"-they heard "statistics". That, after all, is the most obvious interpretation. But, as he discovered, mechanics, geometry and even some mathematical history all play their part.