Monitoring means and covariances of multivariate non linear time series with heavy tails

In this paper, the focus is on sequential analysis of multivariate financial time series with heavy tails. The mean vector and the covariance matrix of multivariate non linear models are simultaneously monitored by modifying conventional control charts to identify structural changes in the data. The considered target process is a constant conditional correlation model (cf. Bollerslev, 1990 Bollerslev, T. (1990). Modeling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: A multivariate generalized ARCH model. Rev. Econ. Stat. 72:498–505.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), an extended constant conditional correlation model (cf. He and Teräsvirta, 2004 He, C., Teräsvirta, T. (2004). An extended constant conditional correlation GARCH model and its fourth-moment structure. Economet. Theory 20:904–926.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), a dynamic conditional correlation model (cf. Engle, 2002 Engle, R.F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate GARCH models. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 20(3):339–350.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), or a generalized dynamic conditional correlation model (cf. Capiello et al., 2006 Capiello, L., Engle, R., Sheppard, K. (2006). Asymmetric correlations in the dynamics of global equity and bond returns. J. Financial Economet. 4(4):537–572.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). For statistical surveillance we use control charts based on residuals. Further, the procedures are constructed for t-distribution. The detection speed of these charts is compared via Monte Carlo simulation. In the empirical study, the procedure with the best performance is applied to log-returns of the stock market indices FTSE and CAC.     

Is ethnic prejudice declining in Britain? Change in social distance attitudes among ethnic majority and minority Britons

Most literature on racial prejudice deals with the racial attitudes of the ethnic majority and ethnic minorities separately. This paper breaks this tradition. We examine the social distance attitudes of white and non‐white British residents to test if these attitudes follow the same trends over time, whether they are driven by the same social processes and whether they are inter‐related. We have three main findings. Firstly, social distance from other ethnic groups has declined over time for both white and ethnic minority Britons. For the white majority there are both period and cohort elements to this decline. Secondly, we see some evidence that social distance between the majority and minority groups is reciprocal. Specifically, minorities who experience rejection by the white British feel a greater sense of distance from them. Thirdly, we find that all groups share the perception of the same ethnic hierarchy. We see evidence of particularly widespread hostility towards Muslim Britons from all ethnic groups suggesting that Muslims are singled out for negative attention from many British residents of all other backgrounds, including a large number who do not express hostility to other groups.     

Cigarette Smoking and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Adult Mortality in the United States

This study illuminates the association between cigarette smoking and adult mortality in the contemporary United States. Recent studies have estimated smoking-attributable mortality using indirect approaches or with sample data that are not nationally representative and that lack key confounders. We use the 1990–2011 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files to estimate relative risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for current and former smokers compared with never smokers. We examine causes of death established as attributable to smoking as well as additional causes that appear to be linked to smoking but have not yet been declared by the U.S. Surgeon General to be caused by smoking. Mortality risk is substantially elevated among smokers for established causes and moderately elevated for additional causes. We also decompose the mortality disadvantage among smokers by cause of death and estimate the number of smoking-attributable deaths for the U.S. adult population ages 35+, net of sociodemographic and behavioral confounders. The elevated risks translate to 481,887 excess deaths per year among current and former smokers compared with never smokers, 14 % to 15 % of which are due to the additional causes. The additional causes of death contribute to the health burden of smoking and should be considered in future studies of smoking-attributable mortality. This study demonstrates that smoking-attributable mortality must remain a top population health priority in the United States and makes several contributions to further underscore the human costs of this tragedy that has ravaged American society for more than a century.     

“I Had to Go to the Streets to Get Love”: Pathways From Parental Rejection to HIV Risk Among Young Gay and Bisexual Men

Young, gay, and bisexual men (YGBM) are at increased risk of family rejection, which is related to HIV infection. What remains unknown is how family rejection leads to HIV risk. In this exploratory study, qualitative interviews were conducted with 21 HIV-positive YGBM aged 18 to 24. Most participants reported family rejection, which decreased instrumental and emotional support and resulted in participants using riskier ways to support themselves, such as engaging in survival sex. Conceptualizing the findings using a family systems framework, we present a tentative conceptual model to describe the potential relationships between family rejection and HIV risk for YGBM.     

Dual class shares,board of directors’ effectiveness and firm’s market value: an empirical study

This study aims to identify whether a relationship exists between the controlling shareholders’ voting power and outside directors’ effectiveness in maximizing firms’ financial performance. We analyze a panel data with 3057 observations for the 2000–2012 period using a random effects model, logit and probit regressions, and the two-stage model of Heckman in the Brazilian stock market. Our findings show that firms whose controlling shareholders use dual class shares to leverage their voting power have less independence from the board and worse financial performance and market value. Further, the percentage of outside directors tends to be ineffective in increasing the firm’s value, and in changing the firm’s chief executive officer (CEO) when (1) the controlling shareholder’s voting power is leveraged, or (2) when the CEO assumes a position on the board of directors simultaneously. We interpreted that these results are in line with the arguments in favor of the existence of a new agency cost, which is related to the undue obedience of board members to authority, such as the largest controlling shareholder or the CEO in Brazilian listed firms.     

Male gamblers – suicide victims and living controls: comparison of adversity over the life course

The objective of this research is to investigate the possible difference in accumulation of adversity over the life course among decedent gamblers and living control gamblers in the province of Quebec, Canada. A sample of 90 adult men, 41 living participants and 49 suicide decedents, met the criteria for at-risk and problem gambling over the last five years. Data were obtained from informants in the case of suicide and directly from living controls during semi-structured face-to-face interviews using SCID I and II, SOGS, Module K and a recount of life trajectories methodology. The results showed a high level of adversity throughout the life trajectories of both groups. However, the living gamblers faced more difficulties during their lifespan than the suicide victims. In the last six months before their death, suicide victims had a significantly higher number of mental health disorders, especially co-morbid mental health disorders and anxiety, compared to the living controls. We also observed a rapid escalation of difficulties, more life events and more psychological distress in the last six months of their lives among the suicide decedents. Suicidal behaviour needs to be carefully investigated by medical staff and mental health practitioners, especially when gamblers demonstrate evidence of mental health disorders or financial difficulties.     

Social Skills in Children Adopted From Socially-Emotionally Depriving Institutions

This study assessed social skills in post-institutionalized (PI) children with respect to age at adoption, age at assessment, and gender. Parent ratings of social skills (Social Skills Rating System) and behavior problems (Child Behavior Checklist) were obtained for 214 children and 127 adolescents who were adopted from socially-emotionally depriving Russian institutions. Results showed that children adopted before 18 months of age have better social skills than those adopted after this age; those assessed in childhood demonstrate better social skills than those assessed in adolescence. PI females, especially later-adopted adolescents, have particularly poor social skills. Children with poor social skills tend to have higher rates of behavior problems.     

Researcher reflexivity: exploring the impacts of CAQDAS use

Computer-assisted qualitative data analysis software (CAQDAS) programs are established tools for qualitative research. Making informed decisions when using them requires researchers to understand how they affect research practices and outcomes. In this article we consider the impact of CAQDAS on researcher reflexivity. Reviewing three decades of literature, we identify specific ‘reflexive moments’ experienced by CAQDAS users, the contexts in which they occur, the issues they raise, and the reflexive awareness they generate. The ways in which CAQDAS can enhance or undermine researcher reflexivity are also reported. By doing so, we aim to help researchers and especially research students (and their supervisors) understand the relationship between CAQDAS and reflexivity and the reflexive moments they may encounter when using such software.     

Risky Business: Is There an Association between Casual Sex and Mental Health among Emerging Adults?

A multiethnic sample of single, heterosexual, emerging-adult college students (N = 3,907) ages 18 to 25, from 30 institutions across the United States, participated in a study about identity, culture, psychological well-being, and risky behaviors. Given ongoing debates about the connection between casual sex and psychological adjustment, in the current study we assessed the cross-sectional association of participation in casual sex with psychological well-being and distress. A greater proportion of men (18.6%) compared to women (7.4%) reported having had casual sex in the month prior to assessment. Structural equation modeling indicated that casual sex was negatively associated with well-being (ß = .20, p < .001) and positively associated with psychological distress (ß = .16, p < .001). Gender did not moderate these associations. For emerging-adult college students, engaging in casual sex may elevate risk for negative psychological outcomes.     

Assessing state substance abuse prevention infrastructure through the lens of CSAP's Strategic Prevention Framework

Although the organizational structures and operating procedures of state substance abuse prevention systems vary substantially across states, there is scant empirical research regarding approaches for rigorous assessment of system attributes and which attributes are most conducive to overall effectiveness. As one component of the national cross-site evaluation of the SPF State Incentive Grant Program (SPF SIG), an instrument was developed to assess state substance abuse prevention system infrastructure in order to measure infrastructure change and examine the role of state infrastructure in achieving prevention-related outcomes. In this paper we describe the development of this instrument and summarize findings from its baseline administration. As expected, states and territories were found to vary substantially with respect seven key characteristics, or domains, of state prevention infrastructure. Across the six domains that were assessed using numeric ratings, states scored highest on data systems and lowest on strategic planning. Positive intercorrelations were observed among these domains, indicating that states with high capacity on one domain generally have relatively high capacity on other domains as well. The findings also suggest that state prevention infrastructure development is linked to both funding from state government and the presence of a state interagency coordinating body with decision-making authority. The methodology and baseline findings presented will be used to inform the ongoing national cross-site evaluation of the SPF SIG and may provide useful information to guide further research on state substance abuse prevention infrastructure.