Quantile hidden semi-Markov models for multivariate time series

Statistics and Computing - Parametric regression, such as linear regression, plays an important role in statistics. The use of parametric regression models typically involves the specification of a...     

A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF TURNOUT AND VOTING IN MULTIPLE ELECTIONS

This paper develops a unified approach to study participation and voting in multiple elections. The theoretical setting combines an uncertain‐voter model of turnout with a spatial model of voting behavior. We apply our framework to the study of turnout and voting in US Presidential and Congressional elections. We structurally estimate the model using individual‐level data for the 2000 elections, and quantify the relationships between observed individual characteristics and unobserved citizens’ ideological preferences, information, and civic duty. We then use the estimated model, which replicates the patterns of abstention, selective abstention, split‐ticket voting, and straight‐ticket voting observed in the data, to assess the effects of policies that may increase citizens’ information and sense of civic duty on their turnout and voting behavior.     

First birth timing in Australia

This paper examines the concept of delayed childbearing in Australia, in comparison with other Western countries. In addition to presenting statistics to examine changes in the age at which women enter parenthood, survey data from the Australian Family Project are used to investigate the factors influencing the timing of the first birth. Using a framework proposed by Bloom (1984), the paper presents a proportional hazards regression model of first birth timing. Some attempt is made to examine changes over time in the factors affecting the age at first birth.     

Contemporary Epidemiology: A Review of Critical Discussions Within the Discipline and A Call for Further Dialogue with Social Theory

The discipline of epidemiology, which holds major influence on public health policy as well as on clinical medical practice, has in recent decades to a large extent been concerned with the identification of factors and markers of risk for disease. Much health information and intervention is thus informed by a wealth of studies on a variety of risk factors, of which the individual is encouraged to keep informed and to be responsible about. Meanwhile, risk factor epidemiology has been subject to intense debate, both within and outside the discipline. The following review offers an overview of critical intradisciplinary debates. It then opens discussion on three partially overlapping areas where social theory has been called upon to contribute to epidemiological inquiry, namely analysis of macro‐social determinants of health and disease, of categories of human difference and of embodiment. The review ends with, and is motivated by, a plea for further integration of and dialogue between epidemiology and social theory.     

Multicriteria decision making applied to waste recycling in Brazil

Waste management, like other environmental issues, tends to be a suitable topic for problem solving using multicriteria decision-making techniques when uncertainty is involved. This paper presents two cases where the decision makers had different preferences. In the first case, social agents required an evaluation of different disposal alternatives for plastic waste. In the second case, existing construction and demolition waste recycling facilities required a performance evaluation.     

ENDOGENOUS LOBBYING

In this article, we present a citizen‐candidate model of representative democracy with endogenous lobbying. We find that lobbying induces policy compromise and always affects equilibrium policy outcomes. In particular, even though the policy preferences of lobbies are relatively extreme, lobbying biases the outcome of the political process toward the center of the policy space, and extreme policies cannot emerge in equilibrium. Moreover, in equilibrium, not all lobbies participate in the policy‐making process. (JEL: D72, D74, D78)     

Factorial Validity and Invariance of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale Among Portuguese Youngsters

The purpose of the present study was to examine the reliability, factorial validity and measurement invariance (across gender, age and physical activity participation) of a Portuguese version of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES). The sample consisted of 1,763 Portuguese youngsters (731 male and 1,032 female) with ages between 15 and 20 years. Reliability estimate for the one-factor solution was .845, although some proposed RSES’s underlying dimensions were lower than .70. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the best-fitting model was a single self-esteem factor, plus simultaneous correlated uniqueness for positively and negatively worded items. Multigroup analysis supported measurement invariance across age and physical activity participation, and partial metric invariance across gender, as three items failed to show metric equivalence. These results provide evidence that RSES has excellent psychometric properties and it is a valid self-esteem measure to be used among Portuguese youngsters.     

Evolving possibilistic fuzzy modelling

This paper suggests an evolving possibilistic approach for fuzzy modelling of time-varying processes. The approach is based on an extension of the well-known possibilistic fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering and functional fuzzy rule-based modelling. Evolving possibilistic fuzzy modelling (ePFM) employs memberships and typicalities to recursively cluster data, and uses participatory learning to adapt the model structure as a stream data is input. The idea of possibilistic clustering plays a key role when the data are noisy and with outliers due to the relaxation of the restriction on membership degrees to add up unity in FCM clustering algorithm. To show the usefulness of ePFM, the approach is addressed for system identification using Box & Jenkins gas furnace data as well as time series forecasting considering the chaotic Mackey–Glass series and data produced by a synthetic time-varying process with parameter drift. The results show that ePFM is a potential candidate for nonlinear time-varying systems modelling, with comparable or better performance than alternative approaches, mainly when noise and outliers affect the data available.     

Cross-Country Assessment of Systemic Risk in the European Stock Market: Evidence from a CoVaR Analysis

Social Indicators Research - This work is intended to assess the contribution to systemic risk of major companies in the European stock market on a geographical basis. We use the EuroStoxx 50 Index...