The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

Knowledge Brokering: The missing link in the evidence to action chain?

Transferring health care research into policy and practice is a messy and complex process which both policymakers and researchers can struggle with. A potential solution is to use individuals or organisations as knowledge brokers. Using a range of literature, this paper explains the theory behind knowledge brokering, identifies three models of brokering and explores the challenges of brokering. We suggest that clarifying these factors is a significant step towards planning well designed and rigorously evaluated brokering interventions. We also suggest that a clearly defined theoretical framework could help us to find out more about how brokering works and its effectiveness.     

Emotional impacts of environmental decline: What can Native cosmologies teach sociology about emotions and environmental justice?

This article extends analyses of environmental influences on social action by examining the emotions experienced by Karuk Tribal members in the face of environmental decline. Using interviews, public testimonies, and survey data we make two claims, one specific, the other general. We find that, for Karuk people, the natural environment is part of the stage of social interactions and a central influence on emotional experiences, including individuals’ internalization of identity, social roles, and power structures, and their resistance to racism and ongoing colonialism. We describe a unique approach to understanding the production of inequality through disruptions to relationships among nature, emotions, and society. Grief, anger, shame, and hopelessness associated with environmental decline serve as signal functions confirming structures of power. The moral battery of fear and hope underpins environmental activism and resistance. More generally, we expand this concern to argue that neglecting the natural world as a causal force for “generic” social processes has limited not only work on Native Americans, but also work sociology of emotions and theories of race and ethnicity, and has masked the theoretical significance of environmental justice. Taking seriously the experiences of Native people and the importance of the natural environment offers an opportunity to extend sociological analyses of power and to move sociology toward a more decolonized discipline.     

A four factor model predicting likelihood of foster carer retention

This study used a self‐report method to test a conceptual model for predicting the likelihood of retention of foster carers for children requiring out‐of‐home care. It was hypothesized that satisfaction levels of foster carers would be determined by locus of control and social support, and that the decision to stay or leave fostering within the next 18 months would be influenced by foster carer satisfaction, and commitment to a child/ren in care. Participants were 185 Queensland foster carers. Results supported the proposed model. Logistic regression analysis revealed that an increase in either satisfaction or commitment would result in foster carers being more likely to decide to stay in fostering. Multiple regression analysis found that both locus of control and social support made a significant contribution to the prediction of carer satisfaction. The findings were further supported by qualitative data. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold-Smoked Salmon: II. Risk Characterization

A model for the assessment of exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France was presented in the first of this pair of articles (Pouillot et al ., 2007, Risk Analysis, 27:683–700). In the present study, the exposure model output was combined with an internationally accepted hazard characterization model, adapted to the French situation, to assess the risk of invasive listeriosis from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France in a second-order Monte Carlo simulation framework. The annual number of cases of invasive listeriosis due to cold-smoked salmon consumption in France is estimated to be 307, with a very large credible interval ([10; 12,453]), reflecting data uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly associated with the dose-response model. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the predictions, this model provides a scientific base for risk managers and food business operators to manage the risk linked to cold-smoked salmon contaminated with L. monocytogenes. Under the modeling assumptions, risk would be efficiently reduced through a decrease in the prevalence of L. monocytogenes or better control of the last steps of the cold chain (shorter and/or colder storage during the consumer step), whereas reduction of the initial contamination levels of the contaminated products and improvement in the first steps of the cold chain do not seem to be promising strategies. An attempt to apply the recent risk-based concept of FSO (food safety objective) on this example underlines the ambiguity in practical implementation of the risk management metrics and the need for further elaboration on these concepts.     

Quantifying the Hurricane Catastrophe Risk to Offshore Wind Power

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100‐year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10‐year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.     

Caregivers' perspectives on the SafeCare® programme: Implementing an evidence‐based intervention for child neglect

This qualitative study examined caregivers' experiences with SafeCare®, an evidence‐based programme that focuses on child neglect through modules on health, safety, and parenting. Shortly after completing SafeCare, 30 caregivers participated in a semi‐structured interview about their experiences with the programme. Overall, caregivers indicated that the programme helped with improvements in their parenting skills. Among the factors that contributed to a positive experience were the simplicity of language, the skills‐based approach, and the quality of the relationship with the SafeCare provider. Caregivers also noted several factors that made it difficult to fully benefit from the programme, including financial constraints, removal of their child from the home, and general distrust towards the child welfare system. Findings provide relevant information for SafeCare providers in terms of identifying areas that work well for caregivers completing the programme, as well as areas that might serve as impediments. Implications for contemporary child welfare practice are also considered.     

Modification of Tukey's additivity test

In this paper we discuss testing for an interaction in the two-way ANOVA with just one observation per cell. The known results are reviewed and a simulation study is performed to evaluate type I and type II risks of the tests. It is shown that the Tukey and Mandel additivity tests have very low power in case of more general interaction scheme. A modification of Tukey's test is developed to resolve this issue. All tests mentioned in the paper have been implemented in R package Additivity Tests.