Partitioned log-rank tests for the overall homogeneity of hazard rate functions

In survival analysis, it is routine to test equality of two survival curves, which is often conducted by using the log-rank test. Although it is optimal under the proportional hazards assumption, the log-rank test is known to have little power when the survival or hazard functions cross. To test the overall homogeneity of hazard rate functions, we propose a group of partitioned log-rank tests. By partitioning the time axis and taking the supremum of the sum of two partitioned log-rank statistics over different partitioning points, the proposed test gains enormous power for cases with crossing hazards. On the other hand, when the hazards are indeed proportional, our test still maintains high power close to that of the optimal log-rank test. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to compare the proposed test with existing methods, and three real data examples are used to illustrate the commonality of crossing hazards and the advantages of the partitioned log-rank tests.     

The effect of fast and slow decisions on risk taking

We experimentally compare fast and slow decisions in a series of experiments on financial risk taking in three countries involving over 1700 subjects. To manipulate fast and slow decisions, subjects were randomly allocated to responding within 7 seconds (time pressure) or waiting for at least 7 or 20 seconds (time delay) before responding. To control for different effects of time pressure and time delay on measurement noise, we estimate separate parameters for noise and risk preferences within a random utility framework. We find that time pressure increases risk aversion for gains and risk taking for losses compared to time delay, implying that time pressure increases the reflection effect of Prospect Theory. The results for gains are weaker and less robust than the results for losses. We find no significant difference between time pressure and time delay for loss aversion (tested in only one of the experiments). Time delay also leads to less measurement noise than time pressure and unconstrained decisions, and appears to be an effective way of decreasing noise in experiments.     

Understanding the Dynamics of the Individual Donor’s Trust Damage in the Philanthropic Sector

Although trust is long known to be critical to predict behaviors in a charitable context, little research has examined trust damage and its effects on giving behavior. Trust damage is an intermediate state between trust and distrust, rather than a simple reversal or extension, and can change over time. Our research explores individual donor’s trust damage through a dynamic evolution. Across the longitudinal survey, we conclude that the trust damage of pre-giving, giving, and post-giving stage plays different roles in the decision-making process. Trust damage does not play a direct role in the giving intention, but it can indirectly affect giving intention through its impact on perceived benefit and perceived risk. Individual donor’s satisfaction has a strong effect on post-giving trust or continual trust damage, which in turn positively affects future giving intention and behavior. Several important insights for practitioners in the nonprofit sector are also discussed.     

Organisationskultur im Spielfilm

By analyzing cinema films, specific organizational cultures can be illustrated. The culture of prison as a “total institution” is explained on the basis of the movie “The Shawshank Redemption” (1994). With regard to the developing friendship between the former banker Andy Dufresne who is innocently convicted and the homicide delinquent Ellis Boyd Redding typical characteristics of a total institution are pointed out. Furthermore, the psychological function those characteristics serve for employees, inmates and even for the society as a whole is analyzed. Central to this interpretation is thinking of the prison as a father substitute. Many interactions become comprehensible viewed in this context. Additionally, the prison represents a huge object of projection which facilitates the collective release of aggression.     

The Meaning of Trust for Brazilians with Higher Education

The validity of the World Values Survey (WVS) question used to measure trust is disputed over and this article is intended to present the results of an online survey, conducted in Brazil, which tested the meaning of the term trust in the WVS question. The surveyed population is entirely Brazilian and the majority has received some form of higher education. The results of the survey partially corroborate the validity of the WVS and partially deny it. Within the results of this survey there are predominantly two dominant perspectives represented within the surveyed population including: respondents who think in friends and relatives as part of most people have a higher probability of also saying to trust most people which means that different people may be answering slightly different questions. However, respondents who say that trust most people have higher levels of trust in people in general than in family if compared with respondents who say to not trust most people which is in accordance with the expectation that the question adequately measures generalized interpersonal trust.     

Public Multichannel Management – an Integrated Framework of Off- and Online Multichannel Government Services

Government institutions have introduced multichannel environments over time following trends and technological innovations. These public multichannel environments often neglect specific channel characteristics and potentials and thus miss the opportunity to make full use of a strategic channel integration and combination with a focus on customer value creation. This study offers a systematic approach to establish an integrated public multichannel system not only taking into account user preferences, habits and their environment, but also the respective channel issuer and the characteristics of channels and public interfaces. Against this background, the study presents a systematic approach to expand services and channels according to their capacities, and provides academics and practitioners with a framework on public multichannel strategies.     

新中国70年外交理念的伦理形态演进及其发展趋势

外交理念是外交政策和外交活动的指导思想和价值内核。新中国70年外交理念的发展经历了冷战思维影响下的外交理念、和平与发展思维主导下的外交理念两个主要阶段。从伦理视角看，其中蕴含着一个复杂而有序的伦理形态演进过程，它总体上体现为斗争—合作伦理，并具体呈现为3种不同的伦理形态，即：以制度分歧和阶级正义为中心的斗争—合作伦理；以互利关系为中心的斗争—合作伦理；以大国责任为中心的斗争—合作伦理。随着中国特色社会主义进入新时代，我国外交理念伦理将会出现从国家安全伦理向国家发展伦理转变、从国家本位伦理向全球发展伦理转变的趋势。     

Female labour force participation and second birth rates in South Korea

In recent decades, while female labour force participation rates in South Korea have increased, the country’s total fertility rates have declined dramatically. This study explores the association between women’s labour force participation and second birth rates in South Korea over the period 1980–2006. An event-history analysis is applied to longitudinal data from waves 1–10 of the Korea Labour and Income Panel Study. The study shows that post-birth labour force participation significantly reduced women’s propensity for having a second child, whereas non-employment after first birth was associated with an increased propensity. Women with highly educated husbands had a higher likelihood of enlarging the family. Further, the second birth trend in Korea fluctuated in tandem with the country’s institutional and socio-economic development. The childbearing propensity of homemakers was especially sensitive to the business cycle.     

Building Health Insurance Literacy: Evidence from the Smart Choice Health Insurance™ Program

With the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010, the health insurance literacy of Americans became a critical issue. In response, a consumer education program was created and tested by university researchers and educators associated with Cooperative Extension. This article draws extensively on the emerging literature on health insurance literacy and on data from participants in the Smart Choice Health Insurance? program. The intent of the study was to understand socio-demographic and environmental variables that predict initial health insurance literacy and gains in health insurance literacy. A standardized instrument measuring health insurance literacy was used to collect the data. Multivariate analysis showed higher income consumers demonstrated greater initial health insurance literacy scores compared to middle income consumers, whereas younger, male and lower educated consumers reported lower initial health insurance literacy. After participating in the Smart Choice Health Insurance? program, consumers who made greater gains in their health insurance literacy tended to be female, higher income, and consumers residing in states that showed supportiveness of the ACA. The findings highlight the importance of considering sociodemographic characteristics in program design and delivery, as well as how contextual issues, such as the political environment, might impact the delivery of educational efforts. Findings from the analyses help inform ways to adapt and tailor educational opportunities that focus on health insurance literacy for a range of consumers.     

Ambiguity aversion in multi-armed bandit problems

In multi-armed bandit problems, information acquired from experimentation is valuable because it tells the agent whether to select a particular option again in the future. This article tests whether people undervalue this information because they are ambiguity averse, or have a distaste for uncertainty about the average quality of each alternative. It is shown that ambiguity averse agents have lower than optimal Gittins indexes, appearing to undervalue information from experimentation, but are willing to pay more than ambiguity neutral agents to learn the true mean of the payoff distribution, appearing to overvalue objectively given information. This prediction is tested with a laboratory experiment that elicits a Gittins index and a willingness to pay on six two-armed bandits. Consistent with the predictions of ambiguity aversion, the Gittins indexes are significantly lower than optimal and willingnesses to pay are significantly higher than optimal.