Foreign-born emigration: A new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files

The utility of postcensal population estimates depends on the adequate measurement of four major components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Of the four components, emigration, especially of the foreign-born, has proved the most difficult to gauge. Without "direct" methods (i.e., methods identifying who emigrates and when), demographers have relied on indirect approaches, such as residual methods. Residual estimates, however are sensitive to inaccuracies in their constituent parts and are particularly ill-suited for measuring the emigration of recent arrivals. Here we introduce a new method for estimating foreign-born emigration that takes advantage of the sample design of the Current Population Survey (CPS): repeated interviews of persons in the same housing units over a period of 16 months. Individuals appearing in a first March Supplement to the CPS but not the next include those who died in the intervening year, those who moved within the country, and those who emigrated. We use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of emigrants among those not present in the follow-up interview. Our method produces emigration estimates that are comparable to those from residual methods in the case of longer-term residents (immigrants who arrived more than 10 years ago), but yields higher--and what appear to be more accurate--estimates for recent arrivals. Although somewhat constrained by sample size, we also generate estimates by age, sex, region of birth, and duration of residence in the United States.     

A midwife program of newborn resuscitation

A very small proportion of newborns fail to establish a normal respiratory pattern without some assistance at birth and newborns requiring resuscitative measures at birth should have a skilled practitioner able to provide it. In this small hospital midwives felt unskilled in newborn resuscitation and paediatricians were not always immediately available. A stakeholder group gathered to discuss the problem. A training program was implemented that improved the skills, confidence and support of the attending midwife to resuscitate the newborn effectively. The aim was to improve the outcome for the infant whilst maintaining the mother's choice of birthing in a small local hospital close to family and friends.     

Teenage Marriage and Motherhood in Vietnam: The Negative Effects of Starting School Early

Population Research and Policy Review - This paper examines the impact of school starting age on teenage marriage and motherhood in Vietnam. The investigation uses data from the 2009 Vietnam...     

The Three-Item Thinking about Your Partner’s Drinking Scale (TPD-3): Item Response Theory,Reliability, and Validity

Interdependence is a defining feature of close relationships, and alcohol use is one domain where one person’s motivations and behaviors can affect a partner’s well-being. Concern about partner drinking is a gauge that determines whether a partner’s alcohol use has the potential to be problematic to the relationship, and brief and efficient measurement of this construct can be used to serve clinicians, scientists, and practitioners. Across four studies (N = 1,807), we use item response theory analysis to present a 3-item brief screening tool assessing concern about partner drinking: Thinking about your Partner’s Drinking-3 (TPD-3). The TPD-3 revealed strong test–retest reliability and expected patterns of convergent, concurrent, and incremental validity with perceived partner drinking and alcohol-related consequences, behavioral responses to partner drinking, and relationship well-being. We present the TPD-3 as a useful screening tool and for measurement of concern about partner drinking when efficient assessment is desired.     

How School Contexts Shape the Relations Among Adolescents’ Beliefs,Peer Victimization,and Depressive Symptoms

The present research examined how school contexts shape the extent to which beliefs about the potential for change (implicit theories) interact with social adversity to predict depressive symptoms. A preregistered multilevel regression analysis using data from 6,237 ninth‐grade adolescents in 25 U.S. high schools showed a three‐way interaction: Implicit theories moderated the associations between victimization and depressive symptoms only in schools with high levels of school‐level victimization, but not in schools with low victimization levels. In high‐victimization schools, adolescents who believed that people cannot change (an entity theory of personality) were more depressed when they were victimized more frequently. Thus, the mental health correlates of adolescents’ implicit theories depend on both personal experiences and the norms in the context.     

Infant screen exposure links to toddlers' inhibition,but not other EF constructs: A propensity score study

Technology is pervasive in homes of families with young children, despite evidence for negative associations between infant exposure to screen‐based media and cognitive development that has led the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) to discourage parents from exposing children under the age of 18 months to any kind of screen time (AAP, 2016). Here, we apply a propensity score matching approach to estimate relations between electronic screen‐based media use in infancy and executive function in early toddlerhood. In an international sample of 416 firstborn infants, parental report of regular exposure to screen‐based media at 4 months predicted poorer performance on a test of inhibition at 14 months, but was unrelated to either cognitive flexibility or working memory at 14 months. Results of this study are therefore consistent with the view that early exposure to screen‐based media adversely affects the development of executive function.     

Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts

Local area population forecasts have a wide variety of uses in the public and private sectors. But not enough is known about the errors of such forecasts, particularly over the longer term (20 years or more). Understanding past errors is valuable for both forecast producers and users. This paper (i) evaluates the forecast accuracy of past local area population forecasts published by Australian State and Territory Governments over the last 30 years and (ii) illustrates the ways in which past error distributions can be employed to quantify the uncertainty of current forecasts. Population forecasts from the past 30 years were sourced from State and Territory Governments. Estimated resident populations to which the projections were compared were created for the geographical regions of the past projections. The key features of past forecast error patterns are described. Forecast errors mostly confirm earlier findings with regard to the relationship between error and length of projection horizon and population size. The paper then introduces the concept of a forecast ‘shelf life’, which indicates how far into the future a forecast is likely to remain reliable. It also illustrates how past error distributions can be used to create empirical prediction intervals for current forecasts. These two complementary measures provide a simple way of communicating the likely magnitude of error that can be expected with current local area population forecasts.