ANALYZING INDUSTRY‐LEVEL VULNERABILITY BY PREDICTING FINANCIAL BANKRUPTCY

This study introduces a novel framework for building company bankruptcy models and a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of industrial economic activities. We consider the identification of bankruptcy as a classification problem and assume that bankruptcy criteria differ across industries. We build highly accurate industry bankruptcy models by constructing separate models for each industry. We also propose a method of analyzing the vulnerability of industrial economic activities in various countries and industries using new indicators we call “expected potential loss,” which we obtain using the predicted likelihood of bankruptcy and company information. (JEL G0, C0)     

Aging in rural Japan--limitations in the current social care policy

Owing to equal and increased opportunities for education and employment, today's trend in Japanese marriages is characterized by late and less frequent marriage. This paper discusses unavoidable diversity in rural families to point out the anticipated consequences of aging in rural areas and to discuss limitations in current public social care policies. Specifically, the averaged proportion of never-married and single persons at ages 45 to 49 and 50 to 54 in legally recognized depopulated cities, towns, and villages in Japan is calculated to illustrate the expected diversity in families in rural depopulated areas. It also illustrates the need for future studies to develop better social care policies for increasing numbers of single caregivers and single elders.     

The Quality of Life in Japan

This study is part of a collaborative project examining the quality of life in Confucian societies in Asia. Our major findings suggest that, when our sixteen specific life domains are grouped into three life spheres, namely, material, post-material, and public, the Japanese people tend to be most satisfied with the post-material sphere of life and least satisfied with the public sphere of life such as the condition of environment and welfare system. In searching the direct, independent effects of demographics, lifestyles, value priorities, and domain assessments on the quality of life, none of the public life domain assessments shows a significant impact on the quality of life, while friendships and spiritual life in the post-material sphere of life are an important determinant. Equally notable is the finding that neither educational attainment nor household income contributes significantly to the experience of subjective well-being. Leading a global lifestyle also affects positively the quality of life. Finally, being married and satisfaction with marital life appear to be powerful and prevalent influence on the quality of life in Japan.

Inequality and education decisions in developing countries

In this paper we analyze the effect of inequality on school enrollment, preferred tax rate and expenditure per student in developing countries; when parents can choose between child labor, public schooling or private schooling. We present a model in which parents make schooling decisions for their children, weighing the utility benefit of having a child with formal public or private education versus the forgone income from child labor or household work. Parents vote over the preferred tax rate to finance freely provided public education. The utility benefit of an educated child is proportional to expenditure per student, so that there is congestion in public school. We find that when parents can send their children to work or to private school, high inequality leads to exit from public education at both ends of the income distribution. Thus high inequality reduces the support for public education, leading to a low tax rate and expenditure per student. Exit from public education results in both high child labor and a large fraction of students attending private school. In fact there is a threshold level of inequality above which there is no longer support for public education. In addition we explore the implications for the design of foreign aid. The results suggest that foreign aid policies should focus on promoting school attendance rather than increasing school resources, as the later policy might be offset by a reduction in the recipient country’s fiscal effort, with little impact on outcomes.      

Sex change and spatial distribution pattern in an intertidal holothurian Polycheira rufescens in the reproductive season

The patterns of sex change and spatial distribution in an intertidal holothurian, Polycheira rufescens (Chiridotidae; Echinodermata), were investigated on a stony beach in Amakusa, western Kyushu. Field caging experiments revealed that some individuals of P. rufescens underwent a sequential sex change from male to female via hermaphrodite stages and back to male again within a single reproductive season. The sex ratio of the population gradually changed from male dominance at first to equal proportions of males and females as the reproductive season progressed. Toward the end of the reproductive season, immature or spent individuals increased in proportion. Stone size appeared to be an important factor affecting the occurrence of P. rufescens individuals on a stony beach. Analysis of spatial distribution by means of Morisita's index of dispersion and nearest neighbor distances indicated that (i) males showed a slightly stronger tendency to aggregate than females, while females had a tendency toward uniform distribution; (ii) females tended to attract males, as shown by relatively short female-to-male distances; and (iii) there was a substantial variation in male-to-female distances, such that some males were positioned close to females while others were not. It may be suggested that spatial distribution of P. rufescens individuals during the reproductive period is partly dictated by the differential needs of individuals of different sexual states. Received: January 25, 1999 / Accepted: June 10, 1999     

Some families of group divisible designs

Generalizing methods of constructions of Hadamard group divisible designs due to Bush (1979), some new families of semi-regular or regular group divisible designs are produced. Furthermore, new nonisomorphic solutions for some known group divisible designs are given, together with useful group divisible designs not listed in Clatworthy (1973).     

Simulated removal trapping considered in connection with actual census data in small mammals

Summary A record of simulated removal trapping of 50 samples drawn fromN=50 under a design has been considered as to how it does contribute to practical censuses of small mammals. It follows that, for ordinary-density populations so far experienced, the removal census based on the theory may frequently lead to quite wrong estimates from single-plot data by the simplest method, and that the maximum likelihood method is doubtless better, but even this method may produce right estimates in about half of the cases, their standard error being of limited availability. Therefore pooling of data from many plots are desirous for such populations.     

Evolution and physiological consequences of de-alation in crickets

Wing shedding or de-alation is a common phenomenon among crickets. Its significance and effects on other traits were examined based on the results from experiments using artifical or natural de-alation. Artificial de-alation at adult emergence induces rapid egg production and flight muscle histolysis in several species examined. However, natural de-alation does not always shorten the pre-ovipositional period because it does not occur immediately after adult emergence and because oviposition starts before de-alation. In some cases, naturally de-alated females produce more eggs than to intact females during early adult life, but peak ovipositing activity occurs before de-alation. Therefore, retention of the hindwings does not suppress high ovipositing activity in such cases. It appears that de-alation is a result rather than a causal factor in ending migration. Ovarian development and flight muscle histolysis, which can be stimulated by de-alation, are controlled by the jevenile hormone, but the mechanism inducing de-alation remains unknown. The possible factors leading to the evolution of de-alation are discussed.     

How is life history variation generated from the genetic resource allocation?

A simple quantitative genetic model is proposed to explain the observed genetic correlation structure of a bruchid beetleCallosobruchus chinensis in terms of two underlying variables: the resource acquisition and the resource allocation. Heritabilities and genetic correlations among age-specific, fecundities are regarded as consequences of genetic variations of the two variables. Genetic correlations are predominantly positive in both predictions and observations. Nonetheless, comparison between observed and predicted values in heritabilities, genetic correlations, and genetic principal components suggested significant genetic variances both of the resource allocation and the resource acquisition. The prediction of the model is discussed in relation, to experimental tests of trade-off in life history evolution.     

Systems Development and Difficulties in Implementing Procedures for Elder Abuse Prevention Among Private Community General Support Centers in Japan

The present study examines differences in systems development and difficulties in implementing procedures for elder abuse prevention in 1,119 private and 606 public community general support centers under the public long-term care insurance program in Japan. The private community general support centers showed more difficulty implementing procedures than the public community general support centers. Controlling for the type of municipality, progress in systems development did not differ between the private and public community general support centers. Further research should examine how the characteristics of municipal governments are related to systems development in community general support centers.