The nexus between extreme weather events,sexual violence,and early marriage: a study of vulnerable populations in Bangladesh

Population and Environment - This study aims to explore whether a relationship exists between extreme weather events, sexual violence, and early marriage. We selected two districts in Bangladesh...     

Inventory Control and Scheduling of Multiple Products in a Common Facility*

Consider a set of chemical products to be produced in a single facility. Each product has its own unique reaction time (which is assumed to be independent of its batch size), as well as other cost and demand values. In this paper, we address the problem of determining the optimal number of batches, batch sizes, and an accompanying production schedule for these products in the single facility that will minimize the total cost. Two different algorithms have been developed for this problem, the performances of which are contrasted with classical cyclic production schedules. Finally, some guidelines for the application of these methods to real-life problems are outlined.     

Dependence between oil and commodities markets using time-varying Archimedean copulas and effectiveness of hedging strategies

The aim of this work is to study in a first step the dependence between oil and some commodity prices (cotton, rice, wheat, sucre, coffee, and silver) using copula theory, and then in a second step to determine the optimal hedging strategy for oil–commodity portfolio against the risk of negative variation in commodity markets prices. The model is implemented with an AR-GARCH model with innovations that follow t distribution for the marginal distribution and the extreme value copula for the joint distribution and parameters and dependence indices are re-estimated in each new day which allow taking into account nonlinear dependence, tails behavior, and their development over time. Various copula functions are used to model the dependence structure between oil and commodity markets. Empirical results show an increase in the dependence during the last 6 years. Volatility for commodity prices registered record levels in the same time with the increase in uncertainty. Optimal hedging ratio varies over time as a consequence of the change in the dependence structure.     

New confidence interval estimator of the signal-to-noise ratio based on asymptotic sampling distribution

In this paper, the asymptotic distribution of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is derived and a new confidence interval for the SNR is introduced. An evaluation of the performance of the new interval compared to Sharma and Krishna (S–K) (1994) confidence interval for the SNR using Monte Carlo simulations is conducted. Data were randomly generated from normal, log-normal, χ², Gamma, and Weibull distributions. Simulations revealed that the performance of S–K interval is totally dependent on the amount of noise introduced and that it has a constant width for a given sample size. The S–K interval performs poorly in four of the distributions unless the SNR is around one. It is recommended against using the S–K interval for data from log-normal distribution even with SNR = 1. Unlike the S–K interval which does not account for skewness and kurtosis of the distribution, the new confidence interval for the SNR outperforms S–K for all five distributions discussed, especially when SNR?? 2. The proposed ranked set sampling (RSS) instead of simple random sampling (SRS) has improved the performance of both intervals as measured by coverage probability.     

On Ehrhart polynomials and probability calculations in voting theory

In voting theory, analyzing the frequency of an event (e.g. a voting paradox), under some specific but widely used assumptions, is equivalent to computing the exact number of integer solutions in a system of linear constraints. Recently, some algorithms for computing this number have been proposed in social choice literature by Huang and Chua (Soc Choice Welfare 17:143–155 2000) and by Gehrlein (Soc Choice Welfare 19:503–512 2002; Rev Econ Des 9:317–336 2006). The purpose of this paper is threefold. Firstly, we want to do justice to Eugène Ehrhart, who, more than forty years ago, discovered the theoretical foundations of the above mentioned algorithms. Secondly, we present some efficient algorithms that have been recently developed by computer scientists, independently from voting theorists. Thirdly, we illustrate the use of these algorithms by providing some original results in voting theory. Helpful comments by Philippe Clauss and his team are gratefully acknowledged.     

Prospective study of birth interval dynamics in rural Bangladesh

Abstract A group of 209 married, fecund women in rural Bangladesh were studied prospectively for 24 months from 1969 to 1971 to define some of the biological and sociological factors relating to fertility performance. These women were selected from a larger study population of 112,000 that had been followed with a daily house-to-house vital registration programme since 1966. The selected women were interviewed bi-weekly and were asked questions about menstruation, pregnancy, lactation, husband's occupational absences, and monthly urine tests for pregnancy were taken. The results for 193 non-contracepting women revealed that the seasonal pattern of births previously observed in this population could be associated with a corresponding seasonal pattern of conceptions and that this was due to a seasonal trend in fecundability. The highest conception rates were in the coolest months of the year. Post-partum lactational amenorrhoea was very prolonged, averaging 17 months for women with a surviving child. The appearance of the first post-partum menstrual flow (onset of ovulation) also had a seasonal trend which could not be adequately explained. The median waiting time to conception, once menstruation had resumed was eight months. This interval was influenced by seasonal fluctuations, as well as by the age of women and by husbands' absences. The foetal wastage rate was 15·0 per 100 conceptions, with 62 per cent of the foetal losses occurring during the second month of gestation. Overall, the average birth interval was 33 months, with the prolonged lactational amenorrhoea accounting for almost 45 per cent of this interval. From the Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21205.     

Underinvestment in a Profitable Technology: The Case of Seasonal Migration in Bangladesh

Hunger during pre‐harvest lean seasons is widespread in the agrarian areas of Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa. We randomly assign an $8.50 incentive to households in rural Bangladesh to temporarily out‐migrate during the lean season. The incentive induces 22% of households to send a seasonal migrant, their consumption at the origin increases significantly, and treated households are 8–10 percentage points more likely to re‐migrate 1 and 3 years after the incentive is removed. These facts can be explained qualitatively by a model in which migration is risky, mitigating risk requires individual‐specific learning, and some migrants are sufficiently close to subsistence that failed migration is very costly. We document evidence consistent with this model using heterogeneity analysis and additional experimental variation, but calibrations with forward‐looking households that can save up to migrate suggest that it is difficult for the model to quantitatively match the data. We conclude with extensions to the model that could provide a better quantitative accounting of the behavior.     

Reflections on conducting research on the ‘war on terror’: religious identity,subjectivity and emotions

In recent years there has been an increase in literature which has explored the insider/outsider position through ethnic identities. However, there remains a neglect of religious identities, even though it could be argued that religious identities have become increasingly important through being prominent in international issues such as the ‘war on terror’ and the Middle East conflict. Through drawing on the concept of subjectivity, I reflect on research I conducted on the impact of the ‘war on terror’ on British Muslims. I explore the space between the insider/outsider position demonstrating how my various subjectivities – the ‘non-Islamic appearance I’, the ‘Muslim I’, the ‘personal I’, the ‘exploring I’, the ‘Kashmiri I’ or the ‘Pakistani I’, the ‘status I’ and the ‘outsider I’ – assisted in establishing trust, openness and commonality. I conclude by demonstrating how the ‘emotional I’ allowed me to manage my own emotions and participants emotions.     

纪念苏丹商人穆罕默德·哈吉在华首设商务处

中国与阿拉伯非洲的历史交往源远流长,特别是与苏丹的联系,可以追溯到西汉时期,而且从那时起双方之间的往来一直延续不断。本文在历史回顾的基础上,通过实地调查和口传资料,着重考察了19世纪末苏丹商人穆罕默德·哈吉在广州首设商务办事处并开展苏(丹)中(国)贸易、加强双方社会联系的历史活动,揭示了苏中悠久关系史上鲜为人知的一页。