On optimising the estimation of high quantiles of a probability distribution

One of the major aims of one-dimensional extreme-value theory is to estimate quantiles outside the sample or at the boundary of the sample. The underlying idea of any method to do this is to estimate a quantile well inside the sample but near the boundary and then to shift it somehow to the right place. The choice of this “anchor quantile” plays a major role in the accuracy of the method. We present a bootstrap method to achieve the optimal choice of sample fraction in the estimation of either high quantile or endpoint estimation which extends earlier results by Hall and Weissman (1997) in the case of high quantile estimation. We give detailed results for the estimators used by Dekkers et al. (1989). An alternative way of attacking problems like this one is given in a paper by Drees and Kaufmann (1998).     

中国经济发展机制及其解释

本文从中国经济现实出发 ,阐释了以土地集体所有、个人使用的农业制度为基础的中国经济 ,在以消除剩余劳动力为特征的经济发展过程中可能表现出来的若干基本趋势 ,从而提出了中国经济长期发展的一种可能机制     

Prozessverbesserung mit Reifegradmodellen

Since the Software Engineering Institute has published the Capability Maturity Model in 1991, maturity models evolved into a commonly used instrument for assessing the state of a specific class of objects and for identifying improvement measures. As process improvement is a core task of business process management and takes top positions on CIO agendas, maturity models are prospering in this domain as well. However, it remains unclear which maturity levels should be aspired for distinct processes or process groups. Numerous companies strive for increasing or even maximizing maturity levels. Some maturity model specifications contain oppositional advice, but lack concrete recommendations. Even academia provides no answers. Against this background, we propose a mathematical optimization model that builds on insights from value-based management in order to analyze general economic relationships of process improvement with maturity models. The guiding effects of these relationships are illustrated using the example of ??CMMI for Services??. We conclude by discussing limitations and by pointing out theoretical as well as managerial implications.     

论网络文献的时空性、创造性、科技性与文化

文献属于文化的范畴.由于物质载体的不同,文献也表现不同的文化理念.网络文献的出现,是社会网络化发展的结果.它具有时空性、创造性与科技性的特征,由此所反映出来的文化也具备了这些特点,本文分析阐述了两者之间的必然联系.     

Global civil society or ‘networked globality’: beyond the territorialist and societalist paradigm

The concept of global civil society (GCS) is central to treatments of globalization and to depictions of a contested globality. This article offers a novel critique of the concept and its value for a critical social science of globalization. It argues that received notions of GCS are rooted in territorialist and societalist paradigms of the social and should not be used to subvent an account of globalization located in the dynamics of trans and even post-societal and post-national connections and the kind of world they intimate. GCS and variants such as cosmopolitanism are examined to evaluate whether they can provide a way of bridging the gap between territorialist and societalist assumptions about the organization of the social and the increasingly post-societal and post-territorial nature of the world. The aim is to avoid the inviting, but ultimately misleading sleight of hand through which GCS is revealed as the boundary-less equivalent of civil society, but with all the normative and aesthetic baggage of the latter still attached. The article ends with a critical discussion of the claim that globalization processes of connection are producing a networked globality in which reflexive agency is not lost. To recognize this requires a radical take on networks and their ontologies and being skeptical about much of the received sociology of globalization.     

特定的文学作品与普遍的社会心理--从《孔雀东南飞》所表现的婆媳矛盾说起

《孔雀东南飞》是一出家庭悲剧 ,但在中国封建社会的土壤中产生的这一悲剧在全世界却具有普遍性。在老年寡妇和她的儿子、儿媳所组成的非完整的扩大家庭中 ,婆婆和儿媳争夺她们共同关心的男子的情感 ,是这个家庭内的永恒难题。家庭内的情感争夺与社会制度和民族传统并无必然联系。     

我国公司债权人保护制度的缺陷及完善

切实、全面地保护债权人的利益是我国公司法的基本目的,公司法的诸多规定都体现出对债权人利益的保护.但现行公司立法以及司法实践中对公司债权人的保护还存在着某些缺陷,文章针对这些缺陷提出了一些完善措施.     

高师英语教学改革探讨

随着时代的要求 ,出版了新版的中学英语教材。高等师范学校是培养中学英语教师的摇篮 ,其英语教学也要随之进行相应的改革。文章着重探讨了高等师范学校进行的几个方面的教学改革以适应新版的中学英语教材的变化。这种改革必定会适应时代要求 ,培养出合格的英语老师