Probabilistic evaluation of handwriting evidence: likelihood ratio for authorship

Summary.  The evaluation of handwritten characters that are selected from an anonymous letter and written material from a suspect is an open problem in forensic science. The individualization of handwriting is largely dependent on examiners who evaluate the characteristics in a qualitative and subjective way. Precise individual characterization of the shape of handwritten characters is possible through Fourier analysis: each handwritten character can be described through a set of variables such as the surface and harmonics as demonstrated by Marquis and co-workers in 2005. The assessment of the value of the evidence is performed through the derivation of a likelihood ratio for multivariate data. The methodology allows the forensic scientist to take into account the correlation between variables, and the non-constant variability within sources (i.e. individuals). Numerical procedures are implemented to handle the complexity and to compute the marginal likelihood under competing propositions.     

Three Bartlett-type corrections for score statistics in symmetric nonlinear regression models

We present simple matrix formulae for corrected score statistics in symmetric nonlinear regression models. The corrected score statistics follow more closely a χ ² distribution than the classical score statistic. Our simulation results indicate that the corrected score tests display smaller size distortions than the original score test. We also compare the sizes and the powers of the corrected score tests with bootstrap-based score tests.     

Does accounting regulation enhance corporate governance? Evidence from the disclosure of share-based remuneration

Accounting for stock options and share-based remuneration is a controversial issue. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of the mandatory adoption of IFRS 2 on accounting for share-based remuneration by Italian listed companies. The requirements under this standard could have relevant implications for corporate governance as IFRS 2 is expected to reduce the information asymmetry that may exist between corporate insiders and outsiders regarding such remuneration. Empirical evidence confirms that overall disclosure in annual reports concerning the costs of remuneration plans has increased following the adoption of IFRS 2, although some cases of lack of disclosure have also been found. We find that this change in accounting regulation has contributed towards revealing the ‘true’ cost of share-based remuneration to minority shareholders and other investors, together with some evidence of creative accounting surrounding the substance over form principle.     

Evaluation of a treatment program for abusive and high-risk families in Spain

This article describes a six-year evaluation of a comprehensive treatment program for abusive families in Spain. The evaluation involved practitioners' clinical judgments, standardized measures, and follow-up data about children's living situations. The results were similar to those obtained by similar programs from the United States and other developed countries. The analysis obtained the lowest rates of success for neglectful and abusive-neglectful families. Dropout and nondropout families differed in two paternal characteristics: alcohol problems and childhood experience of out-of-home care. Rehabilitated and nonrehabilitated families differed in several variables, including time elapsed between case detection and referral to the treatment program. Scores on measures showed significant changes during treatment.     

Multilevel IRT models for the university teaching evaluation

In this paper, a generalization of the two-parameter partial credit model (2PL-PCM) and of two special cases, the partial credit model (PCM) and the rating scale model (RSM), with a hierarchical data structure will be presented. Having shown how 2PL-PCM, as with other item response theory (IRT) models, may be read in terms of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) with two aggregation levels, a presentation will be given of an extension to the case of measuring the latent trait of individuals aggregated in groups. The use of this Multilevel IRT model will be illustrated via reference to the evaluation of university teaching by students following the courses. The aim is to generate a ranking of teaching on the basis of student satisfaction, so as to give teachers, and those responsible for organizing study courses, a background of information that takes the opinions of the direct target group for university teaching (that is, the students) into account, in the context of improving the teaching courses available.     

Testing a Model of Trade Union Behaviour: An Application of a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis to UK Aggregate Wage Data

ABSTRACT The first part of the paper considers a behavioural model of trade unionism. Wages and employment are characterized as the outcome of a process by which the union maximizes an objective function containing wages and employment as arguments, and is constrained by a trade-off between these two variables as represented by the firm's labour demand function. In the second part, the model's equilibrium predictions for wages are estimated in the framework of a multivariate error correction model and tested for cointegration with data from Britain's manufacturing sector from 1967 to 1986.     

Being Working Poor or Feeling Working Poor? The Role of Work Intensity and Job Stability for Subjective Poverty

Social Indicators Research - Low work intensity and high job instability are crucial micro-determinants of in-work poverty. Importantly, they might also affect subjective poverty in households that...     

Access to social services as a rite of integration: Power,rights, and identity

Access to social services is a multifaceted and multifactorial process, involving social policy lines, services organization, and professional front line practices. It appears to have a crucial role in how personal social services work: depending on the way the process is handled, access to social services could provide a bridge to an inclusive and solidarizing community or worsen discrimination and marginalization. Many underline how studying the actual encounters between citizens and practitioners can provide a privileged site to highlight the interconnections between the abovementioned factors. This is the focus of our research that explored access in a specific Italian region using a case study strategy. After a pilot study, the main points of access to social services were identified, and three units were selected as best examples of different approaches. The three units were explored using mainly qualitative methods inspired by ethnography. We were able to gain in depth understanding of three cultural approaches to access, defined as the “ethical duty,” the “good organization,” and the “professional approach” and reach an in‐depth understanding of their impact on access. There is a vast literature on the power of street‐level bureaucrats, seen as similar to gatekeepers. However, our research suggests that specific organizational cultures also play an important part: different organizational cultures may impact the implementation of local social policy, the organizational procedures, and social workers' practices.