NONLINEAR BUSINESS CYCLE DYNAMICS: CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON THE PERSISTENCE OF AGGREGATE SHOCKS

We look for asymmetries in the dynamics of real GDP growth for the G7 countries, using a model by Beaudry and Koop that allows the depth of a recession to influence the rate of growth of output. We find evidence supporting these nonlinearities in four countries, including the United States, but we do not find evidence that the asymmetries are common even among the four countries exhibiting asymmetric behavior. A modification of the model to distinguish between the recession and recovery phases of a business cycle does not change this general finding. The asymmetries discovered by Beaudry and Koop do not appear to be common among the G7 nations. (JEL E32)     

Behaviour Exchange Systems Training: The ‘BEST’ Approach for Parents Stressed by Adolescent Drug Problems

Parents are challenged in the adolescent years by attempts to increase adolescent responsibility while also managing separation issues. Adolescent drug use can exacerbate parental concerns. Parental fears and anxieties surrounding adolescent drug use can undermine opportunities to respond effectively. This paper describes the theoretical rationale for, and early experience of delivering, a brief intervention program designed to assist parents coping with adolescent drug problems. The program emerges out of a hybrid of systems and behaviour therapy principles and has been designed to address issues associated with parenting characterised by a high level of emotional involvement and/or ineffective parental control. Group work encouraging more adolescent responsibility-taking can assist parents disabled by feelings of guilt and failure. As parents develop emotional independence from adolescent behaviour, an appropriate expectation for adolescent control is established.     

Illegitimate pregnancies,abortion, and the relationship with the pre-oedipal mother

There exists a correlation between disturbances in the early mother-daughter relationship and the adolescent's gravitating toward illegitimate pregnancy and abortion. Out-of-wedlock pregnancies may be an expression of opposing urges to separate from the mother while longing to remain very close. Abortion, the ultimate rejection of the fetus, may express hatred of the mother as well as its corollary hatred for a self that has remained merged with a hated or ambivalently regarded mother. In the clinical material it became clear that the most meaningful steps within the treatment were catalyzed by reenactments of the mother-daughter relationship and that interpretation of transference and countertransference tended to be the crucial element in the work. Movement toward more self-acceptance was paralleled by a more benign stance toward the therapist, the mother, and the daughter.This article was completed in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a certificate in the Post-Master's Program in Advanced Clinical Social Work at Hunter College School of Social Work. The author thanks Dr. Lucille Spira for her help in writing this article. Ms. Grill is a psychiatric social worker New York Psychiatric Institute in private practice.     

Nonprofit organization financial performance measurement: An evaluation of new and existing financial performance measures

Consensus about financial performance measurement remains elusive for nonprofit organization (NPO) researchers and practitioners alike, due in part to an overall lack of empirical tests of existing and new measures. The purpose of the current study was to explore potential similarities of financial performance measures derived from two sources: current NPO research and key informant interviews with NPO foundation constituencies. The authors examined financial performance measurement ratios with data from fifteen Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Form 990 line items. Using factor analytic techniques, they found three performance factors, each with two associated financial measurement ratios, to be present. They categorized the performance factors as fundraising efficiency, public support, and fiscal performance. This article discusses implications of the findings and future research.     

The Maid Trade: Cross-Border Work in South Texas

Objective . The primary objective of this article is to investigate the "informal" marketplace for domestic servants (maids) in a border community in South Texas (Laredo). Methods . A questionnaire was administered by a household member familiar with the present study who employed at least one maid utilizing the snowball method of sample selection. Usable data (surveys) were collected from 389 individuals—195 maids and 194 employers. Results . For maids, who are overwhelmingly female Mexican nationals, the primary determinant or "push" factor in becoming a maid was economic necessity while the primary "pull" factor was good pay. A large hourly wage differential was uncovered for day maids ($3.44) vis-a-vis live-in maids ($2.61), which was primarily the result of civil status and the possession of documents permitting entry into the United States as determined by a logistic regression. Conclusion . The relative attractiveness of work as a maid in Laredo, Texas reflects the benefit of good pay balanced by the cost of poor employment choice in Mexico.     

Using Remote Sensing to Evaluate Environmental Institutional Designs: A Habitat Conservation Planning Example

Objective. Satellite-based remote-sensing analysis is a beneficial, yet underused, tool for environmental policy, planning, and evaluation. We identify its benefits and costs to encourage social scientists to consider the use of remote sensing as a tool for planning and evaluating environmental institutions. Methods. We analyze two multispectral Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images to evaluate a habitat conservation plan (HCP) implemented pursuant to the Endangered Species Act. Results. Image analysis provides useful broad spatial scale information on HCP performance that is not discernible to the naked eye or through other methodologies. Conclusions. Satellite image analysis should be considered as a tool for planning and evaluating environmental institutional designs—despite the financial costs and requisite technical training. These images provide ecological and land cover change information that may not be available elsewhere. We provide lessons learned to help make analysts cognizant of some important issues surrounding the use of satellite-based imagery for environmental institutional analysis.     

Union survival strategies for the twenty-first century

Clearly, the necessary changes in the law and culture will not come easily or quickly. But, transcending all forms of these labor market segments is a set of concerns that arguably should spur a search for common ground between labor and management. The proliferation of automated technologies, together with the continuing impact of foreign competition with cheap labor markets, has led some to predict that, over the next quarter century, we will witness the elimination of the blue-collar, mass assembly-line worker from the production process.¹⁴ Moreover, the theory that those losing jobs in the manufacturing sector will be generally absorbed into the service sector is losing currency as it is becoming clear that service jobs are, themselves, not invulnerable either to offshore outsourcing (e.g., telephone operators, data processors) or to automated technology (e.g., bank tellers, office secretaries). Nor is it realistic to expect the new “knowledge sector” to absorb more than a fraction of the unemployed and underemployed casualties of this transformation. As a result, the widening gap between the haves and have nots will only continue to grow. As the trend accelerates, certain possibilities for a labor-management accommodation emerge. For one thing, although corporations may be enjoying short-term gains from present wage stagnation, downsizing, outsourcing, and casting off of permanent employees, the longer term effects include a work force with considerably diminished consumer purchasing power. In some industries, corporations are already acknowledging the adverse effects of this trend. Furthermore, as employers are contributing into pension funds on behalf of fewer and fewer “employees,” the forced savings pool that has for many years constituted a primary financing source of capital investments in our economy, will gradually be depleted.¹⁵ At the same time as employers are coming face to face with the disadvantages of the union-free environment they have so long sought, employers are also rediscovering the contributions to productivity, quality, and efficiency that can be gained from a truly empowered work force with an independent voice in the workplace. All of this should lead an enlightened management to place less currency on resisting unionization and other legitimate forms of independent employee representation, and to join labor in advocating strong labor standards and effective labor law for all four of the labor market segments that exist today and will exist tomorrow. The authors wish to convey their deep appreciation for the invaluable contributions to this paper made by David Silberman of Bredhoff & Kaiser and Craig Becker, Associate General Counsel, Service Employees International Union. Another version of this paper was published in Labor Lawyer.     

THE MARKET FOR MOTION PICTURES: RANK, REVENUE, AND SURVIVAL

Every motion picture is an innovation that competes for theater screens and audiences during its brief life against a changing array of imperfect substitutes. We analyze a large sample of motion pictures as an evolving rank tournament of survival and death. The results indicate that the failure rate of motion pictures is time-dependent and survival time is strongly related to the number of initial bookings. Weekly box office revenue is highly convex in rank, which is consistent with Rosen's superstar phenomenon. Our results have implications for motion picture licensing arrangements, which have been severely restricted by U.S. court decisions.     

Applicability of the Social Development Model to Urban Ethnic Minority Youth: Examining the Relationship between External Constraints,Family Socialization,and Problem Behaviors

The development of preventive interventions targeting adolescent problem behaviors requires a thorough understanding of risk and protective factors for such behaviors. However, few studies examine whether different cultural and ethnic groups share these factors. This study is an attempt to fill a gap in research by examining similarities and differences in risk factors across racial and ethnic groups. The social development model has shown promise in organizing predictors of problem behaviors. This article investigates whether a version of that model can be generalized to youth in different racial and ethnic groups (N=2,055, age range from 11 to 15), including African American (n=478), Asian Pacific Islander (API) American (n=491), multiracial (n=442), and European American (n=644) youth. The results demonstrate that common risk factors can be applied to adolescents, regardless of their race and ethnicity. The findings also demonstrate that there are racial and ethnic differences in the magnitudes of relationships among factors that affect problem behaviors. Further study is warranted to develop a better understanding of these differential magnitudes.     

Leader behaviors and career derailment potential: A multi-analytic method examination of rating source and self–other agreement

Based on extensive research that views leadership as a multi-faceted phenomenon, we examined how the relationships between task-oriented and relationship-oriented leader behaviors and career derailment potential vary by observer perspective. We present findings using three different analytical techniques: random coefficient modeling (RCM), relative weight analysis (RWA), and polynomial regression (PR). RCM findings suggest that self-, direct report, peer, and supervisor ratings of leader behaviors differ and are associated with career derailment potential. RWA results indicate that self-ratings matter the least, whereas peer ratings of leader behaviors typically matter the most in predicting career derailment potential. PR analyses indicate that career derailment potential is lowest when self-ratings are lower than other ratings of leader behaviors and/or when self–other ratings converge on higher, rather than lower, ratings of leader behaviors. Implications for leadership and self–other agreement research and professional practice are discussed.