Overreporting voting: why it happens and why it matters

The key to understanding why people overreport is that those who are under the most pressure to vote are the ones most likely to misrepresent their behavior when they fail to do so. Among all nonvoters, the most likely to overreport are the more educated, partisan, and religious, and those who have been contacted and asked to vote for a candidate. The greater the concentration of African-American and Latino nonvoters in a district, the greater the probability of overreporting in those districts, both among those in the relevant minority group and among white Anglos. White nonvoters are more likely to overreport in the Deep South than elsewhere. Overreporting matters: using reported votes in place of validated votes substantially distorts standard multivariate explanations of voting, increasing the apparent importance of independent variables that are related in the same direction to both overreporting and voting and sharply decreasing the apparent importance of independent variables related in opposing directions to those two variables.     

Double logistic curve in regression modeling

The logistic sigmoid curve is widely used in nonlinear regression and in binary response modeling. There are problems corresponding to a double sigmoid behavior which consists of the first increase to an early saturation at an intermediate level, and the second sigmoid with the eventual plateau of saturation. A double sigmoid behavior is usually achieved using additive or multiplicative combinations of logit and more complicated functions with numerous parameters. In this work, double sigmoid functions are constructed as logistic ones with a sign defining the point of inflection and with an additional powering parameter. The elaborated models describe rather complicated double saturation behavior via only four or five parameters which can be efficiently estimated by nonlinear optimization techniques. Theoretical features and practical applications of the models are discussed.     

Neo-natal mortality in South Asia: The special role of tetanus

First-year mortality in rural Uttar Pradesh is characterized by a predominance (60 per cent) of deaths during the first month of life, of which 66 per cent are reported to be due to tetanus. This pattern is not typical of the historical experience of many developed countries and the current experience of some less developed countries where post-neo-natal mortality predominates. To examine this phenomenon, two causal models of neo-natal mortality (one for tetanus and one for all other diseases) are developed and tested using retrospective survey data from 2000 couples living in rural Uttar Pradesh.

Neo-natal tetanus mortality is found to be primarily a function of opportunities for exposure to the disease (e.g. lack of antiseptic birth practices, ownership of large animals) rather than of socio-economic status or demographic variables. The importance of examining neo-natal mortality by cause, and the shortcomings inherent in making inferences from the historical experiences of Western nations are emphasized.     

The Siting of Radioactive Waste Faculties: What Are the Effects on Communities?1

Abstract Despite literally dozens of attempts, and the expenditure of billions of dollars, efforts to site radioactive waste disposal facilities in this country have been uniformly unsuccessful. While both researchers and policymakers continue to address reasons for these failures, little attention is being given to the consequences for the communities themselves of these intensive siting battles. Using a research framework that addresses both the sources and consequences of community conflict, we examine what is happening in four different areas currently being considered as potential hosts for either a high- or a low-level radioactive waste facility. Some degree of conflict is observed in each community, although it varies from one area to another based on such differences as potential to experience economic benefits, perceptions of class and ethnic equity, and the role of extra-local players in the controversy. We conclude that current policies lead to inequitable distributions of risk that, in turn, create “fairness” questions that are important both in explaining current patterns of conflict and in anticipating long-term consequences for the affected communities.