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311.
312.
A number of previous studies have called attention (typically ex post facto) to the finding that schizophrenics tend to have backgrounds with a particular type of status imbalance—their occupational level is lower than their years of education would seem to merit. The data from this study substantiated this finding. Moreover, we found that the greater the magnitude of this type of inconsistency, the higher the proportion of schizophrenia. Since schizophrenics were especially downwardly mobile, however, we tentatively concluded that this type of status inconsistency is not a “cause” of schizophrenia but rather a consequence of that illness. 相似文献
313.
Stanley K. Smith 《Demography》1986,23(1):127-135
Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth. 相似文献
314.
Stanley Kupinsky 《Demography》1971,8(3):353-367
The relationship between socio-economicstatus and fertility among married women is examined, using data from the 1/1,000 sample from the 1960 United States Census of Population and the 1960 Growth of American Families Study. Both sets of data indicate that the negative relationship between socio-economic status and fertility is still prevalent but may reflect different patterns of child-spacing rather than completed fertility. Labor force participation among these women is found to be negatively related to the number of children ever born. To determine the degree of involvement in this type of non-familial role, the work index or proportion of one’s married life engaged in the labor force is developed. The work index is found to be a particularly sensitive measure of involvement in the worker role vis-a-vis their fertility. The working hypothesis of this study, that such non-familial activity has a different effect according to one’s socio-economic status, is borne out. Participation in the labor force results in a relatively larger reduction in the fertility of upper status women than for those of lower status. However, this relationship apparently holds true only for those women from rural backgrounds but not for those from large urban areas. 相似文献
315.
Many researchers have used time series models to construct population forecasts and prediction intervals at the national level,
but few have evaluated the accuracy of their forecasts or the out-of-sample validity of their prediction intervals. Fewer
still have developed models for subnational areas. In this study, we develop and evaluate six ARIMA time series models for
states in the United States. Using annual population estimates from 1900 to 2000 and a variety of launch years, base periods,
and forecast horizons, we construct population forecasts for four states chosen to reflect a range of population size and
growth rate characteristics. We compare these forecasts with population counts for the corresponding years and find precision,
bias, and the width of prediction intervals to vary by state, launch year, model specification, base period, and forecast
horizon. Furthermore, we find that prediction intervals based on some ARIMA models provide relatively accurate forecasts of
the distribution of future population counts but prediction intervals based on other models do not. We conclude that there
is some basis for optimism regarding the possibility that ARIMA models might be able to produce realistic prediction intervals
to accompany population forecasts, but a great deal of work remains to be done before we can draw any firm conclusions. 相似文献
316.
Charles Crothers Stanley Yeung 《Kōtuitui : New Zealand Journal of Social Sciences Online》2018,13(2):132-146
ABSTRACTMany social commentators have considered that alongside the fiscal transparency enjoined by contemporary New Zealand governments, there should be a complementary social responsibility reporting. This task is usually assigned to social indicator frameworks. However, at present (as the 2017 election looms) there is a faltering in the provision of social indicators which have been in place in New Zealand for almost two decades, with the exception of the recent 2016 survey data from Statistics New Zealand and Ministry of Social Development that were made available within a month of writing this article. Having commented on the current status of the New Zealand social indicator system, we present data from the General Social Survey and the Quality of Life survey to at least convey recent trends in subjective social well-being and reported behaviours and experiences. References are also made to the accumulating literature on social well-being in New Zealand, followed by suggestions for more systematic indicator development and underpinning research. 相似文献
317.