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31.
Projections of total population have been evaluated extensively, but few studies have investigated the performance of projections by age. Of those that did, most focused on projections for countries or other large areas. In this article, we evaluate projections by age for Florida and its counties, as produced and published between 1996 and 2010 by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. We first compare the precision and bias of projections of total population with the precision and bias of projections by age, at both the state and county levels. This is followed by a more detailed examination of county-level projection errors for individual age groups, first in the aggregate and then disaggregated by sex and population size. The second part of the analysis focuses on a number of adjustments that were implemented in projections published in 2006 and 2009. Intended to improve accuracy, these adjustments involved updates to the base population, fertility rates, and survival rates. We compare the accuracy of projections incorporating these adjustments with the accuracy of projections excluding them. We believe this study offers a unique opportunity to examine a variety of characteristics regarding the forecast accuracy of small-area population projections by age. 相似文献
32.
Burger Joanna Pflugh Kerry Kirk Lurig Lynette Von Hagen Leigh Ann Von Hagen Stanley 《Risk analysis》1999,19(2):217-229
Recreational and subsistence angling are important aspects of urban culture for much of North America where people are concentrated near the coasts or major rivers. Yet there are fish and shellfish advisories for many estuaries, rivers, and lakes, and these are not always heeded. This paper examines fishing behavior, sources of information, perceptions, and compliance with fishing advisories as a function of ethnicity for people fishing in the Newark Bay Complex of the New York–New Jersey Harbor. We test the null hypothesis that there were no ethnic differences in sources of information, perceptions of the safety of fish consumption, and compliance with advisories. There were ethnic differences in consumption rates, sources of information about fishing, knowledge about the safety of the fish, awareness of fishing advisories or of the correct advisories, and knowledge about risks for increased cancer and to unborn and young children. In general, the knowledge base was much lower for Hispanics, was intermediate for blacks, and was greatest for whites. When presented with a statement about the potential risks from eating fish, there were no differences in their willingness to stop eating fish or to encourage pregnant women to stop. These results indicate a willingness to comply with advisories regardless of ethnicity, but a vast difference in the base knowledge necessary to make informed risk decisions about the safety of fish and shellfish. Although the overall median income level of the population was in the $25,000–34,999 income category, for Hispanics it was on the border between $15,000–24,999 and $25,000–34,999. 相似文献
33.
Stanley Schachter 《Revista de Psicología Social》2013,28(2):201-222
ResumenSe propone un acercamiento socio-construccionista para el estudio de las subjetividades de género sexual frente al tratamiento cognitivista y sociocognitivista, dominantes en Psicología Social, en la investigación sobre identidad sexual, estereotipos y categorías de género. Asimismo se parte de ciertos planteamientos provenientes de la epistemología feminista postmoderna que ponen un énfasis especial en el análisis del lenguaje como instrumento mediatizador, regulador y modelador de la subjetividad y el género desde una perspectiva de las relaciones de poder y su regulación de subjetividades. Desde este triple marco el objetivo es analizar si la subjetividad de género femenino, supuestamente heredada y compartida según la mayoría de estudios de estereotipos, modela las identificaciones de las propias mujeres o si éstas desarrollan formas de resistencia hacia ella. Por todo ello la metodología de Análisis del Discurso aparece como la estrategia de investigación más adecuada. Los resultados del Análisis del Discurso de las narraciones de las mujeres sobre ellas mismas pone de manifiesto distintas subjetividades con diferentes niveles de agencia en relación a la reproducción o transformación de la escisión de género femenino. 相似文献
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35.
Stanley L. Sclove 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(7):675-695
The individuality of n fingerprint is based on the configuration of occurences of the ten Galton characteristics ( ridge endings, forks, etc. ). A model ( Osterburg, Parthasarthy, Raghavan, Sclove, 1977 ) for the occurence of these characteristics, in terms of a grid of cells, is further developed. The occurence of the characteristics is modelled as a two-dimensional multivariate Poisson process. This approach allows one to treat multiple occurrences in a more satisfying way than in Osterburg, Parthasarathy, Raghavan and Sclove ( 1977 ) or Sclove ( 1978 ) 相似文献
36.
37.
A preference for sons and the low status of females are implicated in the preponderance of males over females as reported in each census of India from the first one taken in the 19th century. A number of cultural practices, some of which are quite ancient, are involved in this sexual imbalance, namely, maternal mortality due to unhygienic lying-in and postpartum conditions and practices, female infanticide, female feticide, Sati, murder, dowry murder, and suicide. This discussion is based both on 19th and 20th century sources and on fieldwork conducted in the North Indian village of Shanti Nagar in 1958–59 and 1977–78. These practices are most prominent in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and the Union Territory of Delhi. Initially the British tended to overlook some of them, but in the early 19th century and thereafter the British Raj passed laws to curb, especially, female infanticide and Sati. The modern Government of India has also sought to abolish dowry which would, presumably, put an end to dowry murder. Moreover, the Government has issued three circulars directing that action be taken under the penal code against anyone using a prenatal sex-determination test with the object of abortion—a directive aimed at stopping female feticide. Again with the intent of curbing female feticide, a bill providing for punishment and heavy fines for doctors violating the ban on sex-determination tests has recently been introduced in the state legislature of Maharashtra. Despite these efforts, most of the beliefs and practices here described have proved to be tenacious. 相似文献
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39.
Subjects filled out three touch attitude scales, a measure of recollections of early childhood touch, and a social competence inventory, and then proceeded to record their touches in a log for one week. The touch questionnaires, although correlated with one another, did not predict day-to-day touching as recorded in logs. However, the results also suggest that questionnaire responses (for the one recall measure and two attitude scales) and log records are each independently predictive of social self-confidence. These findings are interpreted to mean that both positive attitudes/remembrances about touch and active engagement in touch behavior are important elements in social competence. Implications for future research are discussed, including the suggestion that the possible effects of skills training in touch on tactile attitudes, touch communication practices, and social self-esteem should be investigated.Stanley E. Jones is professor of Communication at the University of Colorado, Boulder. Brandi C. Brown is amagna cum laude honors B.A. graduate of the same institution who now resides in Nashville, TN. 相似文献
40.
Stanley Deetz 《International Journal of Value-Based Management》1995,8(3):255-278
If commercial corporations are to stay economically viable and the general society is to stay healthy, corporate decisions must be even more responsive to rapidly changing environments and stakeholder needs and responsible in increasingly complex and interdependent social contexts. The dominant economic conception of corporations and the accompanying emphasis on profitability, value-neutral rationality, and managerial control is increasingly problematic. Public values have a right of representation in corporate decisions but current means of representation through the marketplace and through governmental guidance are limited in effect. Replacing the economic conception with a stakeholder model recognizing multiple forms of ownership and enabling wide-spread participation can help initiate important value debate leading to both economic and social benefits. But even with more stakeholder participation, value debate has not and will not necessary resulted. Many new programs have increased the number offorums in which representation and debate could occur, but have not increasedvoice. Richer conceptions of communication, negotiation, and rationality are necessary if we are to reform corporations in significant ways. 相似文献