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321.
Many researchers have used time series models to construct population forecasts and prediction intervals at the national level,
but few have evaluated the accuracy of their forecasts or the out-of-sample validity of their prediction intervals. Fewer
still have developed models for subnational areas. In this study, we develop and evaluate six ARIMA time series models for
states in the United States. Using annual population estimates from 1900 to 2000 and a variety of launch years, base periods,
and forecast horizons, we construct population forecasts for four states chosen to reflect a range of population size and
growth rate characteristics. We compare these forecasts with population counts for the corresponding years and find precision,
bias, and the width of prediction intervals to vary by state, launch year, model specification, base period, and forecast
horizon. Furthermore, we find that prediction intervals based on some ARIMA models provide relatively accurate forecasts of
the distribution of future population counts but prediction intervals based on other models do not. We conclude that there
is some basis for optimism regarding the possibility that ARIMA models might be able to produce realistic prediction intervals
to accompany population forecasts, but a great deal of work remains to be done before we can draw any firm conclusions. 相似文献
322.
Harriet B. Presser 《Demography》1984,21(4):575-589
This study builds on an earlier finding from the May 1980 Current Population Survey that one-third of full-time dual-earner couples with children in the United States include at least one spouse who works other than a regular day shift. Using the same data source, the relevance of husbands’ and wives’ job characteristics (occupation and industry) on their shift work status are considered, and the nature of the association between husbands’ and wives’ work shifts is explored. Four alternative models are initially posed and tested with log-linear analysis; these models vary in the extent to which a spouse’s shift work status is contingent upon the job characteristics of a husband or wife. None of these models fit the data. A modification of the simplest of the four models (using forward selection) is the best fitting model. It is not symmetrical: the wife’s shift is contingent upon both her occupation and industry and that of her husband, but the husband’s shift is contingent only upon his occupation and industry. There is a relationship between husband’s and wife’s shift, the direction of which depends upon the occupations of both spouses. This study demonstrates the importance of taking a “couple” perspective on shift work among married persons, and the need for models that include interaction effects. 相似文献
323.
Charles Crothers Stanley Yeung 《Kōtuitui : New Zealand Journal of Social Sciences Online》2018,13(2):132-146
ABSTRACTMany social commentators have considered that alongside the fiscal transparency enjoined by contemporary New Zealand governments, there should be a complementary social responsibility reporting. This task is usually assigned to social indicator frameworks. However, at present (as the 2017 election looms) there is a faltering in the provision of social indicators which have been in place in New Zealand for almost two decades, with the exception of the recent 2016 survey data from Statistics New Zealand and Ministry of Social Development that were made available within a month of writing this article. Having commented on the current status of the New Zealand social indicator system, we present data from the General Social Survey and the Quality of Life survey to at least convey recent trends in subjective social well-being and reported behaviours and experiences. References are also made to the accumulating literature on social well-being in New Zealand, followed by suggestions for more systematic indicator development and underpinning research. 相似文献
324.