A Proposal for a Model-Based Composite Indicator: Experience on Perceived Discrimination in Europe

Social Indicators Research - The multidimensional poverty index (MPI) is generally credited for better capturing the various components of poverty. Where such indexes have a spatial component,...     

On the predictive performance of a non-optimal action in hypothesis testing

Statistical Methods & Applications - In Bayesian decision theory, the performance of an action is measured by its posterior expected loss. In some cases it may be convenient/necessary to use a...     

Two-stage adaptive cluster sampling

Adaptive cluster sampling is usually applied when estimating the abundance of elusive, clustered biological populations. It is commonly supposed that all individuals in the selected area units are detected by the observer, but in many acutal situations this assumption may be highly unrealistic and some individuals may be missed. This paper deals with the problem of handling imperfect detectability in adaptive cluster sampling by using a pure design-based approach. A two-stage adaptive procedure is proposed where the abundance in the selected units is estimated by replicated counts.     

Predictive control of posterior robustness for sample size choice in a Bernoulli model

In this article we consider the sample size determination problem in the context of robust Bayesian parameter estimation of the Bernoulli model. Following a robust approach, we consider classes of conjugate Beta prior distributions for the unknown parameter. We assume that inference is robust if posterior quantities of interest (such as point estimates and limits of credible intervals) do not change too much as the prior varies in the selected classes of priors. For the sample size problem, we consider criteria based on predictive distributions of lower bound, upper bound and range of the posterior quantity of interest. The sample size is selected so that, before observing the data, one is confident to observe a small value for the posterior range and, depending on design goals, a large (small) value of the lower (upper) bound of the quantity of interest. We also discuss relationships with and comparison to non robust and non informative Bayesian methods.     

The use of predicted values for item parameters in item response theory models: an application in intelligence tests

In testing, item response theory models are widely used in order to estimate item parameters and individual abilities. However, even unidimensional models require a considerable sample size so that all parameters can be estimated precisely. The introduction of empirical prior information about candidates and items might reduce the number of candidates needed for parameter estimation. Using data for IQ measurement, this work shows how empirical information about items can be used effectively for item calibration and in adaptive testing. First, we propose multivariate regression trees to predict the item parameters based on a set of covariates related to the item-solving process. Afterwards, we compare the item parameter estimation when tree-fitted values are included in the estimation or when they are ignored. Model estimation is fully Bayesian, and is conducted via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The results are two-fold: (a) in item calibration, it is shown that the introduction of prior information is effective with short test lengths and small sample sizes and (b) in adaptive testing, it is demonstrated that the use of the tree-fitted values instead of the estimated parameters leads to a moderate increase in the test length, but provides a considerable saving of resources.     

The Interpretative Dimension of Transformative Events: Outrage Management and Collective Action Framing After the 2001 Anti-G8 Summit in Genoa

By focusing on the aftermath of the 2001 G8 counter-summit in Genoa, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive insight into the interpretative dimension of transformative events leading to backfire. First, in line with the existing literature on transformative events, the study shows that after the violent events, Italian authorities employed all possible strategies to inhibit public outrage (i.e., cover-ups of the situation, stigmatizations of targets to legitimate repressive action, reinterpretations of police violence as different from direct attacks, presence of authoritative assessments and intimidation of participants and witnesses). Second, a multidimensional scaling of symbolic devices from 70 social forum websites shows that after 2001, Italian social movement actors used the narrative of the Genoa events in deliberative (i.e., bridging, extension) or negotiating (i.e., punctuation, articulation) framing processes to build new collective action frames.     

Female sterilizing operations in New South Wales: A demographic perspective

This paper examines trends in female sterilizing operations from a demographic perspective. These operations have declined in New South Wales since 1981, with a substantial drop in tubal ligation and hysterectomy, particularly among younger women. The decline in sterilization of women of childbearing age has been due to postponement of births. Younger women have avoided terminal methods of birth control and continued to use methods, such as oral contraceptives and back-up abortion, which allow for a pregnancy at a later age. Sterilizing operations still remain the most commonly reported means of birth control by women over age 35.