POLITICAL MODELS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE SHOULD BE REVIVED

Political models of the business cycle have typically been ignored because they appear inconsistent with rational behavior and because empirical evidence is inconclusive. This paper addresses the second issue, demonstrating for U.S. real GNP, unemployment, and inflation that electoral cycles (persistent patterns across electoral terms) are significant, but apparently only for Republican incumbents, and that partisan cycles (persistent differences between parties) are also significant. These findings are consistent with the conjecture that a minority party is more constrained by electoral concerns, whereas a majority party is freer to pursue partisan objectives.     

Teaching Note—Incorporating Journal Clubs Into Social Work Education: An Exploratory Model

This article outlines the implementation of a journal club for master's and doctoral social work students interested in mental health practice. It defines educational journal clubs and discusses the history of journal clubs in medical education and the applicability of the model to social work education. The feasibility of implementing journal clubs in a school of social welfare is highlighted. The journal club received high ratings on student evaluations indicating participants thought it was a valuable addition to their education. Journal clubs align with the program mission and goals of the Educational Policy and Accreditation Standards (EPAS) set forth by the Council of Social Work Education (CSWE), and they can be an affordable, easily implemented, and sustainable supplement to traditional research curricula.     

Establishing the Validity of the Affirmative Training Inventory: Assessing the Relationship between Lesbian,Gay, and Bisexual Affirmative Training and Students’ Clinical Competence

This study established the validity and factor structure of the Affirmative Training Inventory (ATI; T. S. Carlson, C. R. McGeorge & M. Rock, unpublished) as a measure of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) affirmative clinical training. Additionally, this study examined the latent associations among the subscales of the ATI and the Sexual Orientation Counselor Competency Scale ( Bidell, 2005 ) utilizing a sample of 248 master’s and doctoral couple and family therapy students. The findings from this study provide empirical support for the relationship between specific classroom‐related content associated with LGB affirmative therapy and students’ perceptions of their own ability to work competently with LGB clients. This study also found a positive association between the degree to which couple and family therapy programs adopt a LGB‐affirmative stance and students’ beliefs, knowledge, and skills associated with competent therapy with LGB clients.     

Mental Disorders Among Non-Elderly Nursing Home Residents

Many Medicaid beneficiaries aged 22 to 64 with serious mental illness may be admitted to nursing facilities rather than psychiatric facilities as a result of Medicaid policies prohibiting coverage of inpatient psychiatric care in institutions of mental disease while requiring states to cover nursing facility care. Using nationwide Medicaid Analytic Extract claims from 2002, we found that nearly 16% of nursing home residents aged 22 to 64 had a diagnosed mental disorder, while 45.5% received antipsychotic medication, but these rates varied widely across states. Further research is necessary to determine whether, among the nation's youngest nursing home residents, care in nursing homes is potentially substituting for care in institutions for mental disease or community-based settings.     

The Blind Paper Cutter: Teaching about Variation,Bias, Stability,and Process Control

The intention of this article is to provide teachers with a student activity to help reinforce learning about variation, bias, stability, and other statistical quality control concepts. Blind paper cutting is an effective way of generating tangible sequences of a product, which students can use to address many levels of questions. No special apparatus is required.     

An adaptive seamless phase II/III design for oncology trials with subpopulation selection using correlated survival endpoints

Although the statistical methods enabling efficient adaptive seamless designs are increasingly well established, it is important to continue to use the endpoints and specifications that best suit the therapy area and stage of development concerned when conducting such a trial. Approaches exist that allow adaptive designs to continue seamlessly either in a subpopulation of patients or in the whole population on the basis of data obtained from the first stage of a phase II/III design: our proposed design adds extra flexibility by also allowing the trial to continue in all patients but with both the subgroup and the full population as co-primary populations. Further, methodology is presented which controls the Type-I error rate at less than 2.5% when the phase II and III endpoints are different but correlated time-to-event endpoints. The operating characteristics of the design are described along with a discussion of the practical aspects in an oncology setting.     

Evaluating the relative accuracy and significance of net migration estimates

This paper presents the elements of a theory for evaluating the quality of a set of net migration estimates. The total error in a net migration estimate is decomposed into total bias and total variation. The bias is further decomposed into three bias elements-selection bias, estimator bias, and measurement bias. Tables of bounds for measurement and estimator biases in the vital statistics and the forward survival ratio estimates of net intercensal migration are presented. Both net migration levels and net migration ratios are treated, and provision is made for both life table and census survival ratio estimates. Some of the statistical tables are applied illustratively to net migration data for Canadian counties or census divisions during the 1951-61 decade. Tests of significance and confidence intervals are indicated for net migration estimates, and the basic technical notes are presented in appendices.     

When is a seamless study desirable? Case studies from different pharmaceutical sponsors

Background: Inferentially seamless studies are one of the best‐known adaptive trial designs. Statistical inference for these studies is a well‐studied problem. Regulatory guidance suggests that statistical issues associated with study conduct are not as well understood. Some of these issues are caused by the need for early pre‐specification of the phase III design and the absence of sponsor access to unblinded data. Before statisticians decide to choose a seamless IIb/III design for their programme, they should consider whether these pitfalls will be an issue for their programme. Methods: We consider four case studies. Each design met with varying degrees of success. We explore the reasons for this variation to identify characteristics of drug development programmes that lend themselves well to inferentially seamless trials and other characteristics that warn of difficulties. Results: Seamless studies require increased upfront investment and planning to enable the phase III design to be specified at the outset of phase II. Pivotal, inferentially seamless studies are unlikely to allow meaningful sponsor access to unblinded data before study completion. This limits a sponsor's ability to reflect new information in the phase III portion. Conclusions: When few clinical data have been gathered about a drug, phase II data will answer many unresolved questions. Committing to phase III plans and study designs before phase II begins introduces extra risk to drug development. However, seamless pivotal studies may be an attractive option when the clinical setting and development programme allow, for example, when revisiting dose selection. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.