Statistics for weighing benefits and harms in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized cancer prevention trial

Summary.  When evaluating potential interventions for cancer prevention, it is necessary to compare benefits and harms. With new study designs, new statistical approaches may be needed to facilitate this comparison. A case in point arose in a proposed genetic substudy of a randomized trial of tamoxifen versus placebo in asymptomatic women who were at high risk for breast cancer. Although the randomized trial showed that tamoxifen substantially reduced the risk of breast cancer, the harms from tamoxifen were serious and some were life threaten-ing. In hopes of finding a subset of women with inherited risk genes who derive greater bene-fits from tamoxifen, we proposed a nested case–control study to test some trial subjects for various genes and new statistical methods to extrapolate benefits and harms to the general population. An important design question is whether or not the study should target common low penetrance genes. Our calculations show that useful results are only likely with rare high penetrance genes.     

Struggles with Time: the careers of parents with adult sons and daughters with learning disabilities

The experiences of parents with adult offspring with learning disability and the meanings their parental careers have for them, has been the subject of very little empirical research. In this paper we describe and examine some of the features that gave shape and meaning to the day to day lives of parents of 33 co-resident adults with learning disabilities. Their accounts of their situations revealed that 'time' was a factor of some importance. Participants suggested that socialisation into the parental role was one that continued over the life course. In addition, they also felt that the services they received were based upon an inadequate and too narrow an understanding of how they experienced 'time'. The data reveal that both 'over time' and 'in time', parents struggled to maintain a set of aspirations for a typical life. The data show that for many parents there was a slow accommodation to the constraints of service provision and, as a result, their needs for service support became less extensive.     

Unjust Freedom: The Ethics of Client Self-Determination in Runaway Youth Shelters

Client self-determination has been called the most confounding and professionally debilitating concept of all the intellectual principles under-girding social work (Rothman, 1989). Identifying the appropriate parameters of client self-determination is a particularly acute problem for social workers employed by runaway and homeless youth shelters where minors are making adult decisions free from parental guidance. We examine the ethical dimensions of practice with minor clients in runaway shelters by arguing that a conflict exists between the liberty-based principle of self-determination and the justice-based notion of client competency. We analyze the conflict by using minimal distributive justice as the organizing principle of social work practice. We conclude that client self-determination in runaway shelters should be restricted and that presuming client competence violates the basic value tenets of the profession.     

Gender differences in predictors of late-life health insurance knowledge

For many older adults having access to affordable health care is a major concern. The present study's goal was to examine what factors were related to individuals' knowledge of late-life health insurance. A total of 131 women and 116 men (all aged 55-71) answered questions about private, Medicare, Medigap, and long-term care insurances. In addition, they answered demographic, personality, and health status questions. Results revealed that different factors are related to men's and women's knowledge of late-life health insurance options implying genderspecific educational interventions would be more effective than current educational interventions.     

A win ratio approach to comparing continuous non‐normal outcomes in clinical trials

Clinical trials are often designed to compare continuous non‐normal outcomes. The conventional statistical method for such a comparison is a non‐parametric Mann–Whitney test, which provides a P‐value for testing the hypothesis that the distributions of both treatment groups are identical, but does not provide a simple and straightforward estimate of treatment effect. For that, Hodges and Lehmann proposed estimating the shift parameter between two populations and its confidence interval (CI). However, such a shift parameter does not have a straightforward interpretation, and its CI contains zero in some cases when Mann–Whitney test produces a significant result. To overcome the aforementioned problems, we introduce the use of the win ratio for analysing such data. Patients in the new and control treatment are formed into all possible pairs. For each pair, the new treatment patient is labelled a ‘winner’ or a ‘loser’ if it is known who had the more favourable outcome. The win ratio is the total number of winners divided by the total numbers of losers. A 95% CI for the win ratio can be obtained using the bootstrap method. Statistical properties of the win ratio statistic are investigated using two real trial data sets and six simulation studies. Results show that the win ratio method has about the same power as the Mann–Whitney method. We recommend the use of the win ratio method for estimating the treatment effect (and CI) and the Mann–Whitney method for calculating the P‐value for comparing continuous non‐Normal outcomes when the amount of tied pairs is small. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spirit of aging rising: cross-cutting thematic modules to enrich foundation graduate social work courses

To enrich an urban generalist MSW program serving a diverse aging community, an innovative approach was initiated. A team of students, faculty and a field instructor collaborated in creating and evaluating 3 sets of cross-cutting thematic modules. An overview of the thematic modules (addressing elder abuse, family caregiving, and mental health), integrated across multiple curriculum areas (Human Behavior and the Social Environment, Macro/Policy, Practice and Research), is presented along with results of a faculty focus group evaluating the process of coordinating module content for one full week of class per foundation area (one topic per quarter).     

Using relative utility curves to evaluate risk prediction

Summary.  Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models that are constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. This paper makes five contributions to this evaluation: the relative utility curve which gauges the potential for better prediction in terms of utilities, without the need for a reference level for one utility, while providing a sensitivity analysis for misspecification of utilities, the relevant region, which is the set of values of prediction performance that are consistent with the recommended treatment status in the absence of prediction, the test threshold, which is the minimum number of tests that would be traded for a true positive prediction in order for the expected utility to be non-negative, the evaluation of two-stage predictions that reduce test costs and connections between various measures of performance of prediction. An application involving the risk of cardiovascular disease is discussed.     

Developing an undue influence screening tool for Adult Protective Services

The study purpose was to develop and pilot an undue influence screening tool for California’s Adult Protective Services (APS) personnel based on the definition of undue influence enacted into California law January 1, 2014. Methods included four focus groups with APS providers (n = 33), piloting the preliminary tool by APS personnel (n = 15), and interviews with four elder abuse experts and two APS administrators. Social service literature—including existing undue influence models—was reviewed, as were existing screening and assessment tools. Using the information from these various sources, the California Undue Influence Screening Tool (CUIST) was developed. It can be applied to APS cases and potentially adapted for use by other professionals and for use in other states. Implementation of the tool into APS practice, policy, procedures, and training of personnel will depend on the initiative of APS management. Future work will need to address the reliability and validity of CUIST.