A method for exploring the future

This paper describes a method for exploring future policy options. The procedures for choosing the range of options and constructing the future scenarios are described with special emphasis on policy implications. The advantages and limitations of this approach are discussed. The construction of scenarios is illustrated by describing three energy policy options for the U.K. The detailed analysis of these energy options, including their political and resource implications, will be described in a later paper.     

Three energy scenarios for the United Kingdom

The general principles of constructing scenarios and using them to explore policy options have been described in an earlier paper¹. This paper summarizes the results of a preliminary examination of the three scenarios described there and referred to as ‘business-as-usual’, ‘technical-fix’ and ‘low-growth’. The investigation departs from conventional discussions of fuel policy in that it emphasizes the management of fuel demand, and the interaction between fuel demand and life-style, rather than emphasizing fuel supply policies. The relationship between life style and fuel demand can be quantified using the methods of energy analysis.² This method is capable of fine disaggregation and relatively high accuracy. However the aim of the studies reported here was to establish the range of feasible options and the types of policies needed to accomplish them. For this purpose high accuracy is not important so considerable data aggregation has been retained. The detailed analyses presented in this paper are estimated to be accurate to ±15 per cent.The first part of the paper sets out the analysis of the base year (1968) on which the future projections are based. This involves explaining the principles of energy analysis and the method of projection used. The next sections examine the three scenarios in some detail, starting with the estimation of fuel demand and then looking at the fuel supply and management policies needed.     

Regulating Chemicals—From Risks to Riskiness

Under current European Union legislation, action to restrict the production and use of a chemical is only justified if there is evidence that the chemical poses a risk to human health or the environment. Risk is understood as being a matter of the magnitude and probability of specifiable harms. An examination of how risks from chemicals are assessed shows the process to be fraught with uncertainty, with the result that evidence that commands agreement as to whether a chemical poses a risk or not is often not available. Hence the frequent disputes as to whether restrictions on chemicals are justified. Rather than trying to assess the risks from a chemical, I suggest that we should aim to assess how risky a chemical is in a more everyday sense, where riskiness is a matter of the possibility of harm. Risky chemicals are those where, given our state of knowledge, it is possible that they cause harm. I discuss four things that make a chemical more risky: (1) its capacity to cause harm; (2) its novelty; (3) its persistence; and (4) its mobility. Regulation of chemicals should aim to reduce the production and use of risky chemicals by requiring that the least risky substance or method is always used for any particular purpose. Any use of risky substances should be justifiable in terms of the public benefits of that use.     

Meeting the needs of the adoption triangle through open adoption: The adoptee

Open adoption offers advantages for adopted persons which are not available in traditional adoption. Having access, to information about their biological heritage allows adopted persons to integrate their adoptive, history with their biological history. This integration enables resolution of normal developmental crisis. Openness also helps facilitate communication between the adoptee and the adoptive parents. Adoptive parents are then able to recognize, and provide support, when their child is grieving the loss of the birthparents.     

The nurse's role in neuroleptic medications.

1. A questionnaire study of schizophrenia sufferers' (N = 132) views on medication, contrary to expectations, revealed generally favorable attitudes. Clients seemed to understand the fine balance between costs and benefits better than many health-care professionals imagine. 2. Because nurses spend more time communicating with clients than physicians, they are ideally placed to find out how patients perceive neuroleptic therapy, and to provide information, advice, and counseling support. 3. There is a strong case for asserting that mental health nurses should extend their role in monitoring the effects of medication on their clients.     

The Effect of Age and Childhood Social Class on Preference for New Healthcare Practices

Bourdieu theorized that habitus structures and is structured by experiences in the social world, with childhood experiences having the strongest influence. Habitus can yield rewards in specific fields through dispositions to enact certain practices. Healthcare provides an opportunity to assess how age and childhood social class interact to produce preferences in a changing field. Are people who developed their habitus in higher social classes as children more likely to report preferences that reflect new practices? Is there greater inequality at older ages? We find that parents’ educational attainment and occupational prestige does not have a direct effect on respondents’ preferences to be involved in their healthcare decisions. However, there is a significant interaction with age, with larger gaps by childhood social class among older respondents. Results suggest that when valued practices change, socially advantaged groups can most quickly adapt. The findings have implications for the replication of class inequality.     

Colonialism,Disability, and Possible Lives: The Residential Treatment of Children Whose Parents Survived Indian Residential Schools

This article performs an institutional autoethnography of working in a residential treatment center, proposing a moral economy in which the exaltation of white nondisabled professionals is tethered to the denigration of disabled Aboriginal children. It describes how resident and staff resistance, respectively, can be taken up so as to facilitate the smooth continuity of the status quo. And it raises questions about everyday institutional practices such as physical restraints, behavior modification, and life-skills curricula, suggesting they may not do what they are intended to do and may instead wither away knowledge and skills that residents had cultivated before their “intake.”