Good Excuses: Understanding Who Votes With An Improved Turnout Question

Utilizing studies which validate voter turnout, previous researchershave been able to identify a strong tendency for individualsto report voting when they in fact did not. In this article,we assess the effectiveness of a new turnout question on reducingvoter over-reporting in the National Election Study. Providingrespondents with socially acceptable excuses for not voting,we found that this alternate question significantly reducesthe over-reporting of turnout in the 2002 National ElectionStudy by about 8 percentage points. Moreover, our analysis revealsthat with the new question wording, estimates of the turnoutrate for those usually thought to be the least likely to voteare considerably lower than estimates using the traditionalquestion. Thus, not only did the experiment work to significantlyreduce over-reporting, the new question provides deeper insightsinto the voting behavior of the American electorate that hasimplications for both scholars and reformers.     

Fractionally integrated ARMA for crude palm oil prices prediction: case of potentially overdifference

Dealing with stationarity remains an unsolved problem. Some of the time series data, especially crude palm oil (CPO) prices persist towards nonstationarity in the long-run data. This dilemma forces the researchers to conduct first-order difference. The basic idea is that to obtain the stationary data that is considered as a good strategy to overcome the nonstationary counterparts. An opportune remark as it is, this proxy may lead to overdifference. The CPO prices trend elements have not been attenuated but nearly annihilated. Therefore, this paper presents the usefulness of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model as the solution towards the nonstationary persistency of CPO prices in the long-run data. In this study, we employed daily historical Free-on-Board CPO prices in Malaysia. A comparison was made between the ARFIMA over the existing autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Here, we employed three statistical evaluation criteria in order to measure the performance of the applied models. The general conclusion that can be derived from this paper is that the usefulness of the ARFIMA model outperformed the existing ARIMA model.     

The effects of exchange rate regimes on economic growth: evidence from propensity score matching estimates

This is the first study that employs the propensity score matching framework to examine the average treatment effect of exchange rate regimes on economic growth. Previous studies examining the effects of different exchange regimes on growth often apply time series or panel data techniques and provide mixed results. This study employs a variety of non-parametric matching methods to address the self-selection problem, which potentially causes a bias in the traditional linear regressions. We evaluate the average treatment effect of the floating exchange rate regime on economic growth in 164 countries. Time period of the quasi experiment starts in 1970, capturing the collapse of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate commitment system. Results show that the average treatment effect of floating exchange rate regimes on economic growth is statistically insignificant. Verifying the results with the Rosenbaum's bounds, our findings are strong and robust. The research states that there is no evidence that employing a floating exchange rate regime compared to a fixed one leads to a higher economic growth for the countries that use this particular policy.     

Liminality and learning: international placements as a rite of passage

This article reports findings from a collaborative study of UK student learning in Malaysia. We analyze the concept of liminality as a means of understanding the transitional process between states and statuses that social work students experience in practice learning. Here, in specific reference to immersion in new cultural contexts represented by international placements, the development and learning of students are explored in relation to the overlapping domains of familiar and unfamiliar ‘cultures’ and disciplinary practice. These findings carry implications in terms of the increasing popularity of international placements and the potential imposition of hegemonies of values and knowledge.     

FROM ZERO TO TEN

The Society for the Promotion of Artisanal and Agricultural Work among the Jews in Russia (ORT) was established in St Petersburg in 1880. In its post‐1921 form, as the World ORT Union, the organisation, with its headquarters in London, still operates in scores of countries throughout the world. This article analyses the ideological changes in ORT's craftsmen‐related programmes during the first decades of its history: from the initial careful attempts to use qualified artisan labour as one of the ways to adapt the Jewish population to the economic, social and political conditions of the Russian empire, to later Jewish nation‐building projects that incorporated elements of economic autonomy. Founded by maskilic intellectuals and entrepreneurs, from the 1900s ORT was gradually taken over by more radical activists. Some of them, including its future chairman Leon Bramson (1869–1941) and its leading economist Boris Brutskus (1874–1938), came from the Petersburg apparatus of the Jewish Colonization Association, which competed with ORT in all domains of philanthropic activities. Materials of two ORT conferences, in 1914 and 1916, help us understand the changes in the organisation's attitudes to vocational education and various forms of cooperatives and employment bureaux. Special attention is paid to ORT's role during World War I.     

The location-routing problem with simultaneous pickup and delivery: Formulations and a heuristic approach

In this paper, we consider a variant of the Location-Routing Problem (LRP), namely the LRP with simultaneous pickup and delivery (LRPSPD). The LRPSPD seeks to minimize total cost by simultaneously locating the depots and designing the vehicle routes that satisfy pickup and delivery demand of each customer at the same time. We propose two polynomial-size mixed integer linear programming formulations for the problem and a family of valid inequalities to strengthen the formulations. While the first formulation is a node-based formulation, the second one is a flow-based formulation. Furthermore, we propose a two-phase heuristic approach based on simulated annealing, tp_SA, to solve the large-size LRPSPD and two initialization heuristics to generate an initial solution for the tp_SA. We then empirically evaluate the strengths of the proposed formulations with respect to their ability to find optimal solutions or strong lower bounds, and investigate the performance of the proposed heuristic approach. Computational results show that the flow-based formulation performs better than the node-based formulation in terms of the solution quality and the computation time on small-size problems. However, the node-based formulation can yield competitive lower bounds in a reasonable amount of time on medium-size problems. Meantime, the proposed heuristic approach is computationally efficient in finding good quality solutions for the LRPSPD.     

Human Security Perspectives on Refugee Children in Germany

This research identifies challenges and solutions for the situation of accompanied children in German refugee accommodations along the seven human security dimensions (economy, environment, food, health, personal, community and political rights). It analyses existing binding and non‐binding standards for the protection of refugee children at federal, state and municipal level, and their development since 2014. In particular, the United Nations Children's Fund's role for the development of voluntary protection standards is discussed as a role model to enhance the awareness for the protection of refugee children in Germany.