An Introduction to ‘Benefit of the Doubt’ Composite Indicators

Despite their increasing use, composite indicators remain controversial. The undesirable dependence of countries’ rankings on the preliminary normalization stage, and the disagreement among experts/stakeholders on the specific weighting scheme used to aggregate sub-indicators, are often invoked to undermine the credibility of composite indicators. Data envelopment analysis may be instrumental in overcoming these limitations. One part of its appeal in the composite indicator context stems from its invariance to measurement units, which entails that a normalization stage can be skipped. Secondly, it fills the informational gap in the ‘right’ set of weights by generating flexible ‘benefit of the doubt’-weights for each evaluated country. The ease of interpretation is a third advantage of the specific model that is the main focus of this paper. In sum, the method may help to neutralize some recurring sources of criticism on composite indicators, allowing one to shift the focus to other, and perhaps more essential stages of their construction. An abridged version of this paper was presented at the Workshop on European Indicators and Scoreboards, organised by DG Education and the Joint Research Centre within the auspices of CRELL, in Brussels, October 24–25, 2005.     

The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.     

A survey of social media use, motivation and leadership among public relations practitioners

This study investigates the relationship between motivation, leadership and social media use among a sample of public relations practitioners who recently had begun using Twitter to follow Universal Accreditation Board (UAB)-affiliated organizations. A majority of the survey respondents were classified as “everyday users.” A series of Twitter leadership indicators correlated positively with internal motivation and correlated negatively with amotivation. Several word-of-mouth variables also were investigated with regard to motivation.     

Developing a factor model of coal miners’ attributions on risk-taking at work

This paper details a survey of coal miners’ views on the bases for risk-taking. While literature exists on the subject of risk-taking in mines, comparatively few studies have sought to elicit the views of mine personnel themselves. An 83-item questionnaire, grounded upon insights from an earlier qualitative study, was developed and distributed to a sample of mine personnel (N=932). Results were analysed by means of principal components, factor analysis, an iterative refinement of the data set resulting in the development of a three-factor model that was considered to reflect potentially important dispositional influences on risk-taking amongst operational staff in mines. Derived constructs, identified as time pressure, management commitment and confidence in ability to control risk, were found to possess moderate to high levels of internal consistency (α statistic) and high face validity. Findings are discussed with reference to insights from both cognitive risk research and more recent work within the safety culture/climate framework.     

Religious affiliation and beliefs about racial inequality: White college students’ attitudes about Black-White and Native American-White inequality

Is religious affiliation associated with attitudes about racial inequality? While prior research has explored the relationship between religion and attitudes about Black-White inequality, studies exploring attitudes towards Native Americans are rare. Our study is the first to explore the association between religion and attitudes about Native American-White inequality. We find that religious subcultural differences do exist as Catholics, Protestants, and those with no religious affiliation tend to use different explanations for racial inequality, although the relationship between religious affiliation and attitudes is similar regardless of whether African Americans or Native Americans are the target. We also find that across religious groups there is a greater tendency to use person-centered or individual explanations for Native American-White inequality and structural explanations for Black-White inequality. We argue that consistent findings for the association of religious affiliation and attitudes for different racial groups provide support for the presence of religion specific cultural toolkits.     

Analysis of incomplete durations with application to contraceptive use

Models for analysing incomplete durations obtained from cross-sectional surveys are presented. The aim of the paper is to develop a framework for analysing the incomplete duration of episodes in progress at the time of the survey by formulating generalized linear models and fitting and assessing them by using standard statistical packages. The maximum quasi-likelihood method is used for model fitting. The choice of the distribution and the diagnostic procedures are discussed. Simulated data from two distributions (the Weibull and log-logistic distributions) are used to evaluate the methodology developed and to assess model misspecifications. A data set on the current use of the contraceptive pill from a cross-sectional survey in Egypt is analysed.     

Developing creative solutions to the problems of children and their families: communicative reason and the use of forum theatre

The paper represents a further development of work previously reported in this journal by Spratt & Houston (1999) and Spratt et al. (2000) . The authors have sought to develop ways of understanding current social work with children and families in line with the critical theory of Jurgen Habermas. This analysis has been complemented by an adoption of the methodology of the radical dramatist, Augusto Boal. In synthesizing Habermas's analysis of communicative discourses with the consciousness raising methodology of Boal, the authors have already demonstrated the effectiveness of this hybrid in problem‐solving exercises with social workers. The present paper reports on an application of this developing theory to practice, utilizing the centrepiece of Boal's method, forum theatre. A forum theatre project, concerned with the issue of bullying, is described and evaluated. It is argued that the project provides an exemplar of an innovative, democratizing and effective methodology that might profitably be utilized in social work with children and families. Finally, suggestions are made as to how these ideas could be developed in practice.     

Commitment to the union: a survey of research and the implications for industrial relations and trade unions

This paper presents an overview of the literature on union commitment. The aim is to survey the main approaches, findings and implications of the research. The nature and dimensionality of union commitment are examined, and the antecedents and consequences of union commitment are discussed in detail, including a review of the implications for union participation. There is also a discussion of the possibility of dual commitment to union and employer, and of the 'multiple constituencies' view of commitment. An attempt is made to link the union commitment findings to the wider industrial relations literature on, for example, why people join unions and the 'union renewal' thesis. The article concludes by discussing the implications of the literature for union–management relationships and for unions themselves, and with some suggestions for future research.     

The Management of Workplace Conflict: Contrasting Pathways in the HRM Literature

This paper reviews the human resource management literature on the management of workplace conflict. It suggests that workplace conflict is commonly viewed in the literature as a symptom of management failure: the notion that conflict may be intrinsic to the nature of work because employees and managers have hard‐to‐reconcile competing interests is given short‐shrift. At the same time, the paper identifies important differences in the literature, which the authors call ‘pathways’, about the best methods to manage problems at the workplace. It is argued that four contrasting pathways can be detected in the literature with regard to how organizations approach workplace conflict management practices. Each pathway is examined fully and their respective strengths and weaknesses are assessed.     

Ex Ante Project Evaluation and the Complexity of Early Decision-Making

This paper looks beyond more traditional evaluation activities to focus primarily on evaluation up front. It suggests that the early appraisal of an investment case or a project should apply essentially the same evaluation criteria that will be used in ex post evaluation, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project outcome. However, the initial plan might be altered as result of subsequent analysis, assessment, negotiation, positioning, and the exercise of power. The last part of this paper presents an empirical study of 23 projects, which examines the complexity of processes that occur in the idea- and decision phases.