Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land

Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.     

Faking it: Personality and individual difference predictors of willingness to buy counterfeit goods

Counterfeiting is now widely regarded as a serious social, economic, and political issue. This study examined demographic, personality, and individual difference predictors of willingness to buy counterfeit goods (WBCG) in a community sample of British adults. Two-hundred and thirty-seven participants completed a questionnaire that assessed their willingness to buy 19 types of counterfeit goods, attitudes towards counterfeiting, material values, Big Five personality traits, and demographics. Structural equation modelling showed that attitudes towards counterfeiting were the strongest predictors of WBCG. In addition, material values predicted both WBCG directly and indirectly through attitudes towards counterfeiting. Older participants showed lower WBCG, although this effect was moderated by participants’ conscientiousness, material values, and attitudes towards counterfeiting. There were no sex differences in WBCG once participants’ age and conscientiousness had been taken into account. These results are discussed in relation to the extant literature on the profiles of consumers who buy counterfeit products.     

East Asian childbearing patterns and policy developments

Childbearing behavior in East Asian countries has changed rapidly during the past half century from an average of five to seven children per family, to replacement-level fertility, and subsequently to unprecedentedly low levels, the lowest in the world. This article analyzes fertility trends in Hong Kong, Japan, singapore, south Korea, and Taiwan using cohort fertility data and methods, then examines social and economic causes of the childbearing trends, and surveys policies pursued to reverse the fertility trends. Postponement of childbearing started in the 1970s with continuously fewer delayed births being "recuperated," which resulted in ultra-low fertility. A rapid expansion of education and employment among women in a patriarchal environment has generated a stark dilemma for women who would like to combine childbearing with a career. Policy responses have been slow, with a more serious attempt to address issues in recent years. Thus far public and private institutions are not devoting sufficient attention to generating broad social change supportive of parenting.     

Alienation and its correlates: A meta-analysis

We provide a meta-analysis of alienation, outlining the extent to which it is predicted by individual differences (need for achievement), role stressors (role conflict), leader dimensions (initiating structure), and aspects of the work context (formalization). We also examine its relationship with outcomes such as employee attitudes (job satisfaction), performance (task performance), withdrawal (absenteeism), and side effects (drinking). We examined these relationships based on data from 45 primary studies and 227 statistically independent relationships. Our meta-analysis provides cumulative evidence for effect sizes across multiple settings and respondents, clarifies ambiguous aspects of the construct, and presents more information on the extent to which alienation can be seen as the opposite of job involvement.     

Author Index

Authors Index

Author Index     

Organizational Learning in Global Purchasing: A Model and Test of Internal Users and Corporate Buyers*

This research examines a model centered on organizational learning in purchasing. Two different studies are conducted to test the hypotheses among purchasing users (Study 1) and buyers (Study 2). The user sample consists of users representing 355 strategic business units of a Fortune 500 multinational corporation. The buyer sample consists of corporate buyers of 200 multinational corporations drawn from the membership directory of the National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM). In each study, the focus is on the learning relationships between corporate buyers and internal users in the purchasing organization. Based on the two studies, the results suggest that organizational learning in the purchasing process is influenced by the organizational culture factors of localness, transformational leadership, and openness. Organizational learning has a positive effect on information processing in the purchasing system, which, in turn, has a positive influence on the cycle time of the purchasing process.     

A cross-validation of a structural equation model of accidents: organizational and psychological variables as predictors of work safety

A study to establish a structural equation model of accidents is presented. The eight variables included in the model were those associated with accidents in previous research. The reliability of questionnaires to measure those variables and a structural equation model relating them are provided. The model explaining the occurrence of accidents was cross-validated through three Spanish samples (n=123; 182; 124).The model presented a good fit to data in two samples, while a third had unclear fit indices. Therefore, most relationships among variables did not vary among these three samples. The role of the safety variables in the model is discussed. The discussion is also focused on risk measurement difficulties commonly reported in the literature. Finally, some suggestions for future safety research with structural equation modelling techniques are provided.     

Policy instrument affordances: a framework for analysis

The present study uses the concept of technological efficacy derived from ecological psychology and design studies to offer an alternative way of analyzing how policy instruments affect change. Reasoning from this, the paper outlines a framework for analyzing policy instruments in terms of their affordances. We define affordances as the means through which an instrument exerts influence on its intended target audience. Using this approach, we contend that policy instruments may be analyzed as interfaces that organize social relations and create structures of opportunity and/or restrict possibilities for action. We argue that explicating the pathways through which instruments afford or constrain action is a central task for policy analysis. Our proposed framework of analysis builds on the idea that instruments yield effects by facilitating action and learning. We further contend that the actions that an instrument can facilitate or inhibit are determined by specific affordance modalities of the instrument in conjunction with contingencies of the actor and the policy environment. Examples from research policy are used to illustrate some of these effects.