EVIDENCE ON ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY IN THE U.S. SENATE: ARE UNFAITHFUL AGENTS REALLY PUNISHED?

Many have questioned whether voters are able to hold incumbent officials electorally accountable through a retrospective voting strategy. We examine U.S. Senate elections from 1962 to 1990 in forty-one states, explaining which incumbents ran for reelection and their success in seeking reelection. We find that an incumbent's deviation from her state party platform decreases the probability that she will run for reelection and win if she runs. Furthermore, the electoral mechanism is found to be more efficient when voters are better informed. Finally, we find that our divergent party platform model provides a better fit than the median voter model.     

Postnatal Effects of Prenatal Insult

Exogenous agents may perturb development during the embryonic period and adversely affect the formation of organs. However, adverse effects on development are not limited to the embryonic period nor are the manifestations restricted solely to outright gross structural malformation, but may instead be expressed as a decrement or abberration of postnatal function. Susceptibility to altered development may extend well into the postnatal period. Studies of functional parameters in several organ systems have demonstrated the broad-based susceptibility, subtlety of expression and potential of long-lasting effects of altered development assessed by physiologic assays. Adverse effects on functional development, whether in the CNS, reproductive, gastrointestinal, genitourinary, respiratory, or immune systems, etc., merit continuing investigation. From the viewpoint of risk estimation and hazard detection, evaluations of postnatal functional parameters may be relevant for several reasons. First, such parameters may serve as low-dose triggers. Second, they may be useful as a focal point for epidemiological studies. Finally, a more thorough understanding of the degree and magnitude of such postnatal functional deficits is needed since an adverse maternal effect may be transient, considered acceptable, or unperceived, but the effect on the conceptus may be permanent and severe. The immune and respiratory systems are discussed as two examples of how subtle and protean adverse effects on functional development may be.     

Some theoretical considerations on confidential adoption part IV: Countertransference

Psychological self-awareness is as essential to the maturation of one's professional self as is the development of theoretical and clinical expertise in child placement. This paper represents a first published attempt at examining countertransference in adoption. The focus is within the context of confidential adoptions, which the authors believe is more child-focused and intrapsychically based than the current experimentation with open adoptions. A distinction is made between countertransference and non-countertransference issues. Countertransference responses are divided into Racker's three categories: the concordant; the complementary; and the disjunctive. Clinical data illustrates these responses in actual practice from the perspective of confidential adoptions.This paper was presented in 1985 before the Illinois Infant Mental Health Association, National Society of Clinical Social Workers, and the National Association of Social Workers National Professional Symposium.This is the last of a series. Parts I, II, and III were published in Vol. 2, Nos. 1, 2, and 3.     

Teenage boys and girls in West Germany

In 1970 the Institute for Sex Research at the University of Hamburg conducted a study of 302 males and 300 females aged 16-17. By age 16, 92% of the boys and 50% of the girls had experienced masturbation, 35% of the boys and 30% of the girls had experienced coitus. In the year before the study, 50% of the girls had an orgasm often or always during coitus. Boys achieved 80% of their orgasms through masturbation, 6% through petting, and 14% through coitus. The girls achieve 1/3 of their orgasms through each of these patterns. 18% of the boys and 6% of the girls had had at least 1 homosexual experience. About 70% of the respondents used contraception regularly. 40% to 50% used oral contraceptives and 20%-30% used condoms. The attitudes towards premarital coitus have become more permissive in the last 10 years, but the majority are still in favor of love and fidelity, and are oriented towards marriage.     

Telecare for women with postpartum depression

Data were collected to pilot test the feasibility and effects of telecare as an intervention for depression in a small group of mothers with postpartum depression. Treatment involved a 10-week telecare therapy consisting of three related aspects: cognitive-behavioral therapy, relaxation techniques, and problem-solving strategies. Beck Depression Inventory II scores were significantly lower after telecare treatment. Women identified psycho-education as the greatest help to them.     

Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games: A Comment

Recursive procedures which are based on iterating on the best response mapping have difficulties converging to all equilibria in multi‐player games. We illustrate these difficulties by revisiting the asymptotic properties of the iterative nested pseudo maximum likelihood method for estimating dynamic games introduced by Aguirregabiria and Mira (2007). An example shows that the iterative method may not be consistent.     

The asymptotic equivalence between the iterated improved 2sls estimator and the 3sls estimator

In this paper we show that the 3SLS estimator of a system of equations is asymptotically equivalent to an iterative 2SLS estimator applied to each equation, augmented with the residuals from the other equations. This result is a natural extension of Telser (1964).     

Recognizing Structural Nonidentifiability: When Experiments Do Not Provide Information About Important Parameters and Misleading Models Can Still Have Great Fit

In the quest to model various phenomena, the foundational importance of parameter identifiability to sound statistical modeling may be less well appreciated than goodness of fit. Identifiability concerns the quality of objective information in data to facilitate estimation of a parameter, while nonidentifiability means there are parameters in a model about which the data provide little or no information. In purely empirical models where parsimonious good fit is the chief concern, nonidentifiability (or parameter redundancy) implies overparameterization of the model. In contrast, nonidentifiability implies underinformativeness of available data in mechanistically derived models where parameters are interpreted as having strong practical meaning. This study explores illustrative examples of structural nonidentifiability and its implications using mechanistically derived models (for repeated presence/absence analyses and dose–response of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and norovirus) drawn from quantitative microbial risk assessment. Following algebraic proof of nonidentifiability in these examples, profile likelihood analysis and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo with uniform priors are illustrated as tools to help detect model parameters that are not strongly identifiable. It is shown that identifiability should be considered during experimental design and ethics approval to ensure generated data can yield strong objective information about all mechanistic parameters of interest. When Bayesian methods are applied to a nonidentifiable model, the subjective prior effectively fabricates information about any parameters about which the data carry no objective information. Finally, structural nonidentifiability can lead to spurious models that fit data well but can yield severely flawed inferences and predictions when they are interpreted or used inappropriately.     

The importance of key celebrity characteristics for customer segmentation by age and gender: Does beauty matter in professional football?

This paper examines through the lens of sport whether male and female customers as well as differently aged customers focus on different celebrity characteristics and whether they are influenced by celebrities’ facial attractiveness. Drawing on psychological and sociological theories like attachment theory, social role theory of gender, or social norm theory as well as on the academic literature on celebrity endorsement in general, we develop several hypotheses regarding how a fan’s age and gender affect the importance of key characteristics of football stars—namely experience, personality, exemplary behavior, and skills. Using a proprietary dataset that combines archival data concerning professional football players and clubs with survey data of more than 2100 football fans, we find evidence that female fans attach more importance to a player’s personality and behavior while male fans seem to focus on experience and skills. We further find that when fans get older, the importance of a player’s behavior and experience increases. Moreover, our results show that the facial attractiveness of players clearly influences fan perceptions. Our results contribute to existing research on customer segmentation by providing a more differentiated picture of the effects of key celebrity characteristics on different customers.     

Changes in Product Attributes and Costs as Drivers of New Product Diffusion and Substitution

Diffusion theory has typically focused on how communication, internal or external to a social system, leads to adoptions and diffusion of an innovation. We develop a diffusion and substitution model based on a somewhat different perspective. In some cases, progressive improvements in product attributes and/or continual cost reduction seem to be a key driver of the diffusion process. For example, after introduction of the 5.25‐inch disk drive, its capacity continually increased, and accordingly, so did customer willingness‐to‐pay. Our model is based on a linear reservation price framework, in which a product is described by its depth (defined as the difference between a product̂s maximum reservation price and its production cost), and its breadth (related to the slope of its reservation price curve), indicating how broadly it appeals across various customer segments. Because of changes in product depths and breadths over time, customers who previously preferred the old product may later prefer the new product, thus creating the diffusion process. While the Bass model describes diffusion as a function of the coefficients of innovation and imitation, in our model, it is described by the coefficients of depth and breadth (the rates of change in relative depth and breadth), along with an S‐coefficient that we associate with the technology S‐curve. We fit our model to data from the disk‐drive and the microprocessor industries.