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81.
In some statistical problems a degree of explicit, prior information is available about the value taken by the parameter of interest, θ say, although the information is much less than would be needed to place a prior density on the parameter's distribution. Often the prior information takes the form of a simple bound, ‘θ > θ1 ’ or ‘θ < θ1 ’, where θ1 is determined by physical considerations or mathematical theory, such as positivity of a variance. A conventional approach to accommodating the requirement that θ > θ1 is to replace an estimator, , of θ by the maximum of and θ1. However, this technique is generally inadequate. For one thing, it does not respect the strictness of the inequality θ > θ1 , which can be critical in interpreting results. For another, it produces an estimator that does not respond in a natural way to perturbations of the data. In this paper we suggest an alternative approach, in which bootstrap aggregation, or bagging, is used to overcome these difficulties. Bagging gives estimators that, when subjected to the constraint θ > θ1 , strictly exceed θ1 except in extreme settings in which the empirical evidence strongly contradicts the constraint. Bagging also reduces estimator variability in the important case for which is close to θ1, and more generally produces estimators that respect the constraint in a smooth, realistic fashion. 相似文献
82.
In this paper we present a parsimonious model for the analysis of underreported Poisson count data. In contrast to previously developed methods, we are able to derive analytic expressions for the key marginal posterior distributions that are of interest. The usefulness of this model is explored via a re-examination of previously analysed data covering the purchasing of port wine (Ramos, 1999). 相似文献
83.
Edwin Choi & Peter Hall 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2000,62(2):461-477
Given a linear time series, e.g. an autoregression of infinite order, we may construct a finite order approximation and use that as the basis for confidence regions. The sieve or autoregressive bootstrap, as this method is often called, is generally seen as a competitor with the better-understood block bootstrap approach. However, in the present paper we argue that, for linear time series, the sieve bootstrap has significantly better performance than blocking methods and offers a wider range of opportunities. In particular, since it does not corrupt second-order properties then it may be used in a double-bootstrap form, with the second bootstrap application being employed to calibrate a basic percentile method confidence interval. This approach confers second-order accuracy without the need to estimate variance. That offers substantial benefits, since variances of statistics based on time series can be difficult to estimate reliably, and—partly because of the relatively small amount of information contained in a dependent process—are notorious for causing problems when used to Studentize. Other advantages of the sieve bootstrap include considerably greater robustness against variations in the choice of the tuning parameter, here equal to the autoregressive order, and the fact that, in contradistinction to the case of the block bootstrap, the percentile t version of the sieve bootstrap may be based on the 'raw' estimator of standard error. In the process of establishing these properties we show that the sieve bootstrap is second order correct. 相似文献
84.
Peter Hall Stephen M.-S. Lee & G. Alastair Young 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2000,62(2):479-491
We show that, in the context of double-bootstrap confidence intervals, linear interpolation at the second level of the double bootstrap can reduce the simulation error component of coverage error by an order of magnitude. Intervals that are indistinguishable in terms of coverage error with theoretical, infinite simulation, double-bootstrap confidence intervals may be obtained at substantially less computational expense than by using the standard Monte Carlo approximation method. The intervals retain the simplicity of uniform bootstrap sampling and require no special analysis or computational techniques. Interpolation at the first level of the double bootstrap is shown to have a relatively minor effect on the simulation error. 相似文献
85.
伦理经济原理与市场经济伦理 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Peter Koslowski 《学术月刊》2007,(10)
伦理学和经济学仿佛是互有敌意的兄弟。说它们是兄弟,因为它们都是关于人的行动和决策的理论,都关心行动和决策的合理性和正确性。说它们互有敌意,因为它们的规范性内容似乎是互相矛盾的,伦理学追求至善,而经济学追求效率,至善的东西未必有效率,有效率的东西未必至善;追求至善的好心人未必总是得到好报,追求效率的坏人未必总是得到恶报。怎样解决两者之间的这种矛盾,伦理经济提出了若干基本原理,其中最重要的有:善的三重性(道德、效果和效率)原理;伦理经济的双重性(经济和伦理性质)原理;作为伦理学经济的伦理经济原理(如道德利益相容性原理、普遍利益权重原理等);作为市场经济的伦理预设的伦理经济原理(如契约第三方原理、双重效应原理、超动机原理等)。 相似文献
86.
所谓“西方”,本身是一个历史的建构。欧洲特定的文化背景,历史上一系列的文化及社会运动,对历史思想和历史书写都产生了重大影响,使得西方史学具有了一定程度上的独特性,譬如强调进步和发展等等。然而这种独特性并不是一连串独一无二的特征,也不意味着西方历史著作的方式在所有方面都优于其他方式。归根到底,正是不同体系之间的冲突,尤其是不同“力量”之间的动态平衡,才构成西方历史思想和历史书写的特点。 相似文献
87.
包弼德 《清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2006,21(2):5-15
理学作为一种思想体系受到朝廷的推崇,并作为科举考试的组成部分。在20世纪,对理学的看法发生了分歧。有人认为理学是智识与科学进步的障碍,中国要想走向现代化就必须摆脱理学。关于中国在12世纪后进入长时期停滞的看法,历史学界一般都不赞成了,但读者的这种看法还比较强烈。对于中国历史的一些基本特征的认识需要重新检验,比如中国文化不是只有一个起源;中国并非与外界隔离并拒绝外界影响;中国的政治体制不是绝对独裁;中国文化并没有一个纯正的“正统”或“道统”(orthodox);中国人并非没有自主的完整实体的“自我”观念。学者在实际研究中往往把中国当作一个实体民族或一个连续不断的文明体,这种观念并不太准确,实际是误解了China的原意。 相似文献
88.
89.
90.
Staying strong: gender ideologies among African-American adolescents and the implications for HIV/STI prevention 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kerrigan D Andrinopoulos K Johnson R Parham P Thomas T Ellen JM 《Journal of sex research》2007,44(2):172-180
This paper explores adolescents' definitions of what it means to be a man and a woman, the psycho-social context surrounding the formation of gender ideologies and their relationship to HIV/STI prevention. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with fifty African-American adolescents living in Baltimore, Maryland. Female gender ideologies included economic independence, emotional strength and caretaking. Male gender ideologies emphasized financial responsibility, toughness and sexual prowess. Findings suggest that stronger adherence to male gender ideologies related to toughness and sexual prowess is influenced by male participants' perceived inability to fulfill their primary gender role as economic providers and the importance of gaining approval from male peers in the absence of adult male role models. Stronger adherence to female gender ideologies related to emotional strength and caretaking may be linked to a heightened desire for male intimacy and tolerance of male sexual risk behavior. Implications of the gender ideologies documented and their commonalities are discussed in terms of HIV/STI prevention. 相似文献