Aging,Proximity to Death,and Religiosity

Considerable evidence has documented that the elderly are more religious and that religiosity is associated with better health and lower mortality. Yet, little is known about the reverse role of life expectancy or proximity to death, as opposed to age, for religiosity. This paper provides evidence for the distinct role of expected remaining life years for the importance of religion in individuals’ lives. We combine individual survey response data for more than 300,000 individuals from 95 countries over the period 1994–2014 with information from period life tables. Contrary to wide-held beliefs, religiosity decreases with greater expected proximity to death. The findings have important implications regarding the consequences of population aging for religiosity and associated outcomes.     

Anwendungsorientierte Sozialforschung

Der Artikel gibt einen Diskussionsansto?, anwendungsorientierte Sozialforschung auf einem Kontinuum zwischen klassisch-akademischen Forschung und Organisationsberatung neu zu positionieren. Nach einer Einordnung in den Diskurs um die Ver?nderung der Sozialwissenschaft wird eine definitorische Ortsbestimmung nach sechs verschiedenen Kriterien vorgenommen. Dabei wird aufgezeigt, dass es sich nicht um geschlossene Begriffstypen, sondern um flie?ende überg?nge zwischen akademischer Forschung, anwendungsorientierter Sozialforschung und Organisationsberatung handelt. Mit Hilfe des Stakeholder-Ansatzes, der unterschiedliche Einflussgruppen auf die einzelnen Felder beschreibt, werden Erkl?rungsans?tze für die Entwicklung und Abgrenzung zwischen akademischer und anwendungsorientierter Forschung gegeben. Zum Schluss werden Qualit?tskriterien für eine gute anwendungsorientierte Sozialforschung zur Diskussion vorgeschlagen.     

Delay Estimation for Some Stationary Diffusion-type Processes

In this paper the asymptotic behaviour of the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators of a delay parameter is studied. The observed process is supposed to be the solution of a linear stochastic differential equation with one time delay term. It is shown that these estimators are consistent and their limit distributions are described. The behaviour of the estimators is similar to the behaviour of corresponding estimators in change-point problems. The question of asymptotical efficiency is also discussed.     

Lev S. Vygotsky: The Man and the Era

Our interpretive essay situates the life and thought of the famed psychologist-educator, Lev S. Vygotsky within the confines of the frequently deadly political and ideological struggles taking place in the Soviet Union during the 1920s and 1930s. We analyze from a psychological point of view Vygotsky's rise and fall in a situation of revolutionary social change, class struggle, class hatred, ideological warfare, deliberately induced mass starvation, and the development of a totalitarian state based on the systematic use of terror. Whereas most Western psychologists have given minimal attention to the political and educational purposes for which Vygotsky's psychology was created, we emphasize that his Marxist orientation had a central influence both on his scientific preoccupations and on the course of his life. His revolutionary identity was anchored in a highly dynamic community with shared goals possessing a semi-sacred quality. Consequently, he experienced his later exclusion from this community as a kind of social and spiritual death.     

Abstracts in French,German, and Spanish

Abstract List

Abstracts in French, German, and Spanish     

Demographic dynamics and long-run development: insights for the secular stagnation debate

This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run demographic dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity, and the question of secular stagnation.     

Action rate models for predicting actions in soccer

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - We present a data-driven approach to predict the next action in soccer. We focus on passing actions of the ball possessing player and aim to forecast the...