Second Quarter 1973 Survey of the Economic Outlook

The aim of the author is improvement of statistical practice. The author distinguishes between enumerative studies and analytic studies. An enumerative study has for its aim an estimate of the number of units of a frame that belong to a specified class. An analytic study has for its aim a basis for action on the cause-system or the process, in order to improve product of the future. A fair price to pay for an inventory is an example of an enumerative study. Tests of varieties of wheat, insecticides, drugs, manufacturing processes, are examples of analytic studies: the choice of variety or treatment will affect the future out-turn of wheat, future patients, future product. Techniques and methods of inference that are applicable to enumerative studies lead to faulty design and faulty inference for analytic problems.

It is possible, in an enumerative problem, to reduce errors of sampling to any specified level. In contrast, in an analytic problem, it is impossible to compute the risk of making a wrong decision. The author provides a number of examples, and pleads for greater care in the writing and teaching of statistical theory and inference.     

Layered supervisory control architecture for reconfigurable automation

The development of control systems and supporting software remains one of the greatest obstacles to the widespread implementation of highly adaptive reconfigurable automation technology. This paper will present the structure of a modular automation control system designed to support rapid reconfiguration and redeployment of automation components. The paper will first present the concept of a layered system architecture and the use of modular automation components to support the construction of a wide variety of automated systems. This layered system architecture is then applied to the proposed modular supervisory control system responsible for configuring and driving automated production resources. Each of the control components comprising this modular control system will be presented.     

Discount-neutral utility models for denumerable time streams

This paper formulates and axiomatizes utility models for denumerable time streams that make no commitment in regard to discounting future outcomes. The models address decision under certainty and decision under risk. Independence assumptions in both contexts lead to additive or multiplicative utilities over time periods that allow unambiguous comparisons of the relative importance of different periods. The models accommodate all patterns of future valuation. This discount-neutral feature is attained by restricting preference comparisons to outcome streams or probability distributions on outcome streams that differ in at most a finite number of periods.     

A cautionary tale

Anthony Edwards wrote this cautionary tale for genetics students at Stanford University whom he was teaching in 1965. It has not previously been published. "Its appearance now is due to my having been asked whether a copy from the papers of the Nobel Laureate Joshua Lederberg might be put on the web by the US National Library of Medicine", he says. "Lederberg was Professor of Genetics at Stanford at the time and I must have given him a copy. More remarkably, he thought it worth keeping." It concerns what is known as Simpson's paradox.     

Planning in a state of turbulence

This paper is concerned with an exploration of the role of the long range planner, whether in the private or public sector of the economy, and the impact made upon the processes of his work by government's increasing propensity to manipulate the economy. The authors' researches over the last 2 years into the comparative nature of planning processes in the U.K. economy have made it abundantly clear to them that planners are increasingly concerned at the dangerous potential of such impact upon their forecasting procedures. The emphasis here will rest upon the planner in private enterprises, although the authors' work in both local government and the nationalized enterprises suggest that the problem is of equal importance in these sectors.The authors consider first the past nature of the search processes in long range planning and the context of such attempts to narrow down the range of variables that form the enterprise's perception of its future. Secondly, they examine the emerging discontinuity and the changing role of government, with particular reference to indicative planning concepts. Then they introduce some of the findings of a recent survey of attitudes towards long range planning in the construction industry of the U.K., a sector vitally influenced by turbulence in the economy and with particular interest in government's ideas of macro-planning. Finally Edwards and Harris examine the implications to government and to planners of their findings.     

Statisticians in stained glass houses

Statistics and stained glass may seem an odd combination, but the windows of Gonville & Caius College, Cambridge, say otherwise. Anthony Edwards explains.