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31.
Cathy W. S. Chen F. C. Liu Mike K. P. So 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2008,50(1):29-51
To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models. 相似文献
32.
Thomas K. Kenemore 《Child and Adolescent Social Work Journal》2003,20(6):435-436
33.
Testing symmetry under a skew Laplace model 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Tomasz J. Kozubowski Anna K. Panorska 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2004,120(1-2):41-63
We develop tests of hypothesis about symmetry based on samples from possibly asymmetric Laplace distributions and present exact and limiting distribution of the test statistics. We postulate that the test statistic derived under the Laplace model is a rational choice as a measure of skewness and can be used in testing symmetry for other, quite general classes of skew distributions. Our results are applied to foreign exchange rates for 15 currencies. 相似文献
34.
Asian and White middle school children were shown photographs of unknown Afro-Caribbean, Asian, and White individuals of approximately the same age as themselves, and asked which one wax most like them, which one they would prefer to be, which ones they would prefer to engage in various activities with, and finally, to allocate positive and negative traits to the three groups or to nobody. A similar majority of both Asian and While children selected an own-race photograph as being most like them, but only about a half selected the own-race photograph as the one they would most like to he. For sharing activities, children showed a strong own-tender preference, followed by an own-race preference. White children stated a greater preference for sharing activities with White children, then with Afro-Caribbean children, and least with Asian children. Asian children preferred Asian and White children the most, Afro-Caribbean the least. On a stereotypes test, similar trends were obtained; White children evaluated While children highest and Asian lowest; Asian children tended to evaluate Asian children highest but to a nonsignificant extent. The relative proportion of Asian/White children in school appeared to have little systematic influence on the results, thus arguing against the contact hypothesis of prejudice reduction in its simple form. 相似文献
35.
Rachel K. Jones 《Sociological inquiry》1993,63(3):351-361
Victims of spouse abuse were interviewed concerning their views of why their husbands were abusive. It was hypothesized that by concentrating on one specific characteristic of this kind previously undocumented patterns of response would be elicited from the subjects. It was concluded that the women's reasons for the violence perpetrated by their spouses serve as justification for the abusers’actions and legitimize maintenance of the relationship. 相似文献
36.
Using mail survey data based on a stratified systematic sample [N = 686] of 1983–1988 graduates of a medium-sized state university, this research evaluates whether ROTC program participation constitutes an independent source of human capital in civilian labor markets by comparing postgraduate earnings (annual income), prestige and authority, and life satisfaction of ROTC program participants with those of nonparticipants. The results revealed no statistically significant ROTC program participation effects, independent of subsequent military status. ROTC program participation paid off in terms of occupational prestige and authority for those on active duty, but not for those in national guard or reserve units. Neither ROTC participation nor current military status affected income or life satisfaction levels. 相似文献
37.
Dr. Judee K. Burgoon 《Journal of Nonverbal Behavior》1991,15(4):233-259
According to a social meaning model of nonverbal communication, many nonverbal behaviors have consensually recognized meanings. Two field experiments examined this presumption by investigating the relational message interpretations assigned to differing levels and types of touch, proximity, and posture. Also examined were the possible moderating effects of the communicator characteristics of gender and attractiveness and relationship characteristics of gender composition and status differentials. Results showed that touching typically conveyed more composure, immediacy, receptivity/trust, affection, similarity/depth/equality, dominance, and informality than its absence. The form of touch also mattered, with handholding and face touching expressing the most intimacy, composure, and informality; handholding and the handshake expressing the least dominance, and the handshake conveying the most formality but also receptivity/trust. Postural openness/relaxation paralleled touch in conveying greater intimacy, composure, informality, and similarity but was also less dominant than a closed/tense posture. Close proximity was also more immediate and similar but dominant. Proximity and postural openness together produced differential interpretations of composure, similarity, and affection. Gender initiator attractiveness was more influential than status in moderating interpretations.An earlier version of this paper was presented to the Interpersonal Communication Interest Group, Western States Communication Association convention, Phoenix, Arizona, February 1991. The author wishes to thank Leesa Dillman for her assistance on that version. 相似文献
38.
We discuss the issue of using benchmark doses for quantifying (excess) risk associated with exposure to environmental hazards. The paradigm of low-dose risk estimation in dose-response modeling is used as the primary application scenario. Emphasis is placed on making simultaneous inferences on benchmark doses when data are in the form of proportions, although the concepts translate easily to other forms of outcome data. 相似文献
39.
Public administration finds itself in an era of government byperformance management, which is reflected in the widespreadassumption that management is a key determinant of performance,and that it is reasonable to expect managers to measurably improveorganizational effectiveness. This article joins a growing literaturein seeking to conceptualize and empirically test how externalenvironmental influences and internal management factors combineto create performance, relying on data from the 20022003National Administrative Studies Project (NASP-II) survey ofstate government health and human services officials. We categorizemanagerial efforts to facilitate organizational performanceas determined either through their interactions with the organizationalenvironment, or through employing workable levers to changeinternal organizational culture, structure, and technology.Among the external environmental variables we find that thesupport of elected officials and the influence of the publicand media have a positive impact on effectiveness. Among internalmanagement choices, the ability to create a developmental organizationalculture, establish a focus on results through goal clarity,and decentralize decision-making authority are all positivelyassociated with organizational effectiveness. 相似文献
40.
Lester M. Salamon Helmut K. Anheier 《Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations》1994,4(4):530-554
As a result in part of the way non-profit institutions are defined and treated in the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA), little is known about the size, scope, financial base and role of this set of institutions at the international level, even though their importance is increasingly being recognised throughout the world. To remedy this significant lack of systematic information on non-profit institutions cross-nationally, the Johns Hopkins Comparative Nonprofit Sector Project has undertaken a major analysis of the economic role of this sector in twelve countries throughout the world, utilising a more meaningful definition of the sector and an approach that is otherwise consistent with the overall thrust of the SNA system. This paper outlines the basis of the more inclusive definition of the non-profit sector embodied in this project, the classification system formulated to structure data-gathering on this more broadly-defined sector and the data assembly strategy developed to build up key estimates of the scale, structure and revenue sources of the non-profit sector in the project countries. The article concludes with a recommendation to incorporate a similar approach to the assembly of data on the non-profit sector into the ongoing SNA system on a regular basis.Professor Lester Salamon is Director of the Institute for Policy Studies and Director of the Comparative Nonprofit Sector Project at the Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, 21218.Helmut Anheier is Research Scientist at the Institute for Policy Studies at the Johns Hopkins University and Assistant Professor of Sociology at Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, 08903. He is co-editor ofVoluntas. 相似文献