Lumpers and Splitters: The Public Opinion Information that Politicians Collect and Use

Are the decisions of American policymakers informed by generaltrends in the public’s ideology or by the public’spolicy-specific preferences? In this article we discuss twoexplanations for the types of public opinion information thatpoliticians collect and use. Using a unique data set of privatepolls from the White House of Richard Nixon, we find that whenopinion data on specific policies were available, the presidentrelied on them and not on general ideology data. On less importantissues, however, we find that the president often chose notto collect policy-specific data and instead relied on generalideology data. The differential collection and use of informationby policymakers reflect varying strategic calculations. Theyalso have profound implications for representative democracyand the demands placed on citizens and governors.     

Rural/Urban Residence,Migration, HIV/AIDS,and Safe Sex Practices among Men in Zimbabwe*

Abstract The AIDS epidemic was initially thought to be primarily an urban phenomenon. However, migration between rural and urban areas has resulted in the spread of the virus to all segments of the population. Prevention efforts continue to focus on the ABCs of AIDS, namely, abstinence among young adults, being faithful within a monogamous relationship, and/or using condoms at each sexual encounter. We examine the effects of residence, migration status, and selected social and demographic variables on the use of these three practices among men in Zimbabwe, a nation experiencing one of the highest HIV/AIDS prevalence rates in the world. Both residence and migration status were found to be significantly related to safe sex practices. Knowledge of a source with easy access to condoms was the strongest predictor of this behavior. Knowledge of prevention methods and experience with persons with AIDS also exerted significant effects, although not always in the manner hypothesized. Possible reasons for the findings and implications for policy are discussed.     

Influence of behavioural tactics on recruitment and reproductive trajectory in the kittiwake

Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions     

International Humanitarian Law and Combat Casualties

The purpose of the article is to provide an overview of the law regulating combat in order to assist in determining whether casualties inflicted in combat should be classified as victims of war or victims of war crimes. The boundaries and the content of International Humanitarian Law are indicated. A brief statement of the law regulating combat is given. The concepts of military objective and of proportionality are analyzed. The scope of an unlawful attack is addressed as is the relationship between unlawful attack offences and other offences in International Humanitarian Law. The article concludes with a discussion of when combat casualties are war crimes victims.     

A MODEL OF "FAMILY FAIRNESS" AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR DEBT NEUTRALITY

Evidence suggests that a signcant proportion, though by no means all, of bequests is equally divided among the beneficiaries. This is inconsistent with standard models of bequests, which predict that equal division should occur only by chance. This paper proposes a modified model incorporating "family fairness" as well as utilitarianism as an influence on behavior. Various implications for debt neutrality are analyzed.     

Improving on truncated linear estimates of exponential and gamma scale parameters

We consider the problem of estimating the scale parameter of an exponential or a gamma distribution under squared error loss when the scale parameter θ is known to be greater than some fixed value θ₀. Natural estimators in this setting include truncated linear functions of the sufficient statistic. Such estimators are typically inadmissible, but explicit improvements seem difficult to find. Some are presented here. A particularly interesting finding is that estimators which are admissible in the untruncated problem which take values only in the interior of the truncated parameter space are found to be inadmissible for the truncated problem.     

Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.