Competing Failure Risk Analysis Using Evidence Theory

Safety systems are important components of high-consequence systems that are intended to prevent the unintended operation of the system and thus the potentially significant negative consequences that could result from such an operation. This presentation investigates and illustrates formal procedures for assessing the uncertainty in the probability that a safety system will fail to operate as intended in an accident environment. Probability theory and evidence theory are introduced as possible mathematical structures for the representation of the epistemic uncertainty associated with the performance of safety systems, and a representation of this type is illustrated with a hypothetical safety system involving one weak link and one strong link that is exposed to a high temperature fire environment. Topics considered include (1) the nature of diffuse uncertainty information involving a system and its environment, (2) the conversion of diffuse uncertainty information into the mathematical structures associated with probability theory and evidence theory, and (3) the propagation of these uncertainty structures through a model for a safety system to obtain representations in the context of probability theory and evidence theory of the uncertainty in the probability that the safety system will fail to operate as intended. The results suggest that evidence theory provides a potentially valuable representational tool for the display of the implications of significant epistemic uncertainty in inputs to complex analyses.     

河谷寻幽

我大清早就出了门，在马尔博罗公路上走了两三英里，然后拐向西北，翻过一处高地去寻找阿文河的源头，这条河流向索尔兹博。我曾经在河谷中一个叫作下阿文的村庄里住过一些日子，然而不止一次听说，这条河算得上是整个英国的胜地之一。那谷地不过三十英里长一英里宽，可上面竟然耸立着大约三十座教区教堂。我决定去探讨一番，究竟是什么原因驱使我们的先人们建造了这么多的教堂，更何况直到最近几年以前英格兰的人口还非常少——苏格兰人一直力求让我们相信这一点。     

Disentangling Energy Policy from Environmental Policy*

Objectives. I attempt to disentangle energy policy from environmental policy in order to explain the shifting politics surrounding the former. I can then explain why energy policies have historically provided distributive benefits but also the implications of the fact that energy proposals have in recent years become more regulatory in nature. Methods. I use a range of methods. These include qualitative accounts of the evolution of energy policy, graphic depictions of congressional activity, spending, and partisanship, and multivariate analyses of oversight activities. Results. I find that policymakers have historically treated energy issues as distributive policy, resulting in an emphasis on spending and oversight but not on substantial legislation. Over the last three decades, as policymakers push energy proposals that are more regulatory in nature, energy politics have become more divisive and partisan. Conclusion. Ultimately, I conclude that the enactment of strong energy policies will necessarily involve conditions that have been conducive to passage of other strong regulatory policies.     

关于民国时期中国国际化问题的新思考

用国际化视角研究现代中国的观点,在过去几十年的大部分时间里不为西方史学界主流所认可.事实上,在中国现代意义上的国家的诞生过程中,中国已经融入全球体系当中.自1912年中华民国建立后,与更为宽广的世界的相互作用往往以决定性的方式影响着中国的发展面貌,正如中国在世界历史发展过程中所起的作用一样.如果不是特别注重从国际化的角度来考察,简直无法正确地理解现代中国史.要研究那个时代中国国际化的历史,我们就不能将国内和国外截然分开,而是应该以同步研究国内外的国际化进程为目标.     

Using expletive insertion to pursue and sanction in interaction

This article uses conversation analysis to examine constructions like who the fuck is that—sequence‐initiating actions into which an expletive like the fuck has been inserted. We describe how this turn‐constructional practice fits into and constitutes a recurrent sequence of escalating actions. In this sequence, it is used to pursue an adequate response after an inadequate one was given, and sanction the recipient for that inadequate response. Our analysis contributes to sociolinguistic studies of swearing by offering an account of swearing as a resource for social action.     

State-Level 2010 Census Coverage Rates for Young Children

The Census Bureau’s demographic analysis (DA) shows that the net undercount rate for children aged 0–4 was 4.6 percent in the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census while adults (age 18 and older) had a net overcount rate of 0.7 percent. For the population aged 0–4, DA estimates are seen as more accurate than the U.S. Decennial Census because the estimates for this young population rely heavily on highly accurate birth certificate data. Given the relatively high net undercount rate for young children, it would be useful to examine census coverage rates for this population in subnational geographic units. In this study, the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census counts of children aged 0–4 are compared to the corresponding figures from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2010 Population Estimates in each state. Differences between the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census count and the Vintage 2010 Population Estimates for the population aged 0–4 range from an estimated net undercount of 10.2 percent in Arizona to an estimated net overcount of 2.1 percent in North Dakota. Larger states tended to have higher net undercounts than smaller states. The ten largest states account for about 70 percent of the national net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Of all the factors examined here, the relative size of the Blacks Alone or in Combination plus Hispanics population is most highly correlated with the estimated net undercount of the population aged 0–4. Other measures that were highly correlated with net undercount rates for the population aged 0–4 were linguistic isolation, percent of adults without a high school degree, and the unemployment rate. In general, characteristics of people are more highly correlated with the net undercount rates of young children than the characteristics of housing units.