Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.     

The labour market experiences of Canadian immigrants

The economic adaptation of immigrants to Canada is analyzed using government data on the labor force and landed immigrants. In particular, the labor force experience of a sample of immigrants in Canada is examined and compared with that of a Canadian cohort with regard to length of unemployment and income. "Differences in unemployment and insurable earnings are examined by age, sex, immigrant category..., world area of last permanent residence, official language abilities, education, and region of residence." (summary in FRE, SPA)     

The Philippine national recording systems on international migration

The author reviews migration data sources and government collection agencies in the Philippines. He finds that "despite the importance of international migration for national policy, efforts to correct the serious data limitations in the area of migration statistics have been limited and uncoordinated. In fact, most estimates of emigration levels from the Philippines still rely heavily on the data gathered by receiving countries."     

Communication apprehension and reactions to proxemic violations

An experiment was designed to examine the role of a person's predispositions toward communication in reactions to violations of proxemic expectations. Working with Burgoon's (1983) violations of nonverbal expectations model, Buller and Burgoon (1986) predicted that predispositions may bias evaluations of initiator reward and violation valence. Apprehensive individuals should unfavorably evaluate the initiator, negatively valence a violation and comply less, while nonapprehensive individuals should favorably evaluate the initiator, positively valence a violation, and comply more. Alternately, this paper proposes that predispositions may affect arousal-induction rather than initiator evaluation and violation valencing. Following Patterson (1983), apprehensives should experience more arousal and comply more to reduce the arousal, whereas nonapprehensives should experience less arousal and comply less. Four initiators engaged 90 subjects in experimental conversations which ended with a request for the subjects' signature on a petition. Initiators either remained at the normative distance, moved one seat closer, or moved one seat farther from the subject. Results showed that apprehensives and subjects experiencing close violations complied more, suggesting that communication apprehension influences arousal-induction. Communication apprehension had no main effect on perceptions of initiator attractiveness and similarity, implying that arousal not perceptions of the initiator is affected by predispositions toward communication. Initiator gender again emerged as an important characteristic which influences a subject's perceptions of initiator reward.     

New venture development at Du Pont

New Products are the life blood of a growing company, but traditional methods of introducing new products are no longer adequate. Du Pont is using a new approach called Venture Management. A New Venture Development provides an ideal environment for making and carrying out decisions involved in introducing new technological developments. It combines the advantages in mobility and communications enjoyed by a small venture-orientated company with the strong technical and financial advantages of a large company.     

Organizing the corporate planning function

A survey of corporate Planning in Britain suggests that the way the process is organized varies with the need of the firm. There appear to be two types of needs which foster the development of the planning activity—strategy development and co-ordination. In capital intensive companies, threatened by technological or market change, there is a need for reappraisal of the firm's overall strategy. On the other hand, in a large diversified firm the requirement may be to co-ordinate the plans of different divisions and departments, particularly investment proposals. This article suggests a framework for the analysis of these planning needs.