Applied social reporting: A social indicators system for West German Society

This paper presents a ‘system’, i.e. systematic compilation, of about 200 social indicators in 10 areas of life, for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1955–1975. The construction of this indicator system is explained and an abridged version is introduced that can be comprised into one master table. Next, an overall evaluation of welfare development in West Germany is given and four models for a time-sequence interpretation are discussed. Finally, the present effort is put in perspective, e.g. in regard of the OECD program and of recent quality-of-life survey research.     

Random Choice as Behavioral Optimization

We develop an extension of Luce's random choice model to study violations of the weak axiom of revealed preference. We introduce the notion of a stochastic preference and show that it implies the Luce model. Then, to address well‐known difficulties of the Luce model, we define the attribute rule and establish that the existence of a well‐defined stochastic preference over attributes characterizes it. We prove that the set of attribute rules and random utility maximizers are essentially the same. Finally, we show that both the Luce and attribute rules have a unique consistent extension to dynamic problems.     

The Dynamic Capability View in Strategic Management: A Bibliometric Review

The dynamic capability view (DCV) is one of the most vibrant approaches to strategic management. In this study, the extant literature published between 1994 and 2011 is analysed, using bibliometric methods in order to explore the scope of this approach and detect current research priorities. For this purpose, the method of bibliographic coupling is introduced in management research, which shifts the focus of analysis from past traditions to current trends. Several clusters of thematically related research are extracted from bibliographic networks, which represent interconnected yet distinct subfields of inquiry within the DCV. The core cluster of the current DCV, which visualizes this research field's nascent but fragile identity, focuses on learning and change capabilities and relates them to firm performance, thus merging aspects of organization theory and strategic management. In addition, several peripheral clusters of research are identified, which reflect a parallel process of differentiation in the overall field. Both trends, i.e. of integration and differentiation, attest to the emancipation of the DCV as a distinct approach to strategic management. However, the DCV still lacks consensual concepts that allow comparisons of empirical studies and advance the theoretical understanding of dynamic capabilities. In the light of the above, some implications of this analysis for further research are discussed.     

Prediction in moving average processes

For the stationary invertible moving average process of order one with unknown innovation distribution F, we construct root-n   consistent plug-in estimators of conditional expectations E(h(_Xn+1)|_X1,…,_Xn)$E(h(X_{n+1})|X_1,\dots ,X_n)$. More specifically, we give weak conditions under which such estimators admit Bahadur-type representations, assuming some smoothness of h or of F. For fixed h it suffices that h   is locally of bounded variation and locally Lipschitz in _L2(F)$L_2(F)$, and that the convolution of h and F   is continuously differentiable. A uniform representation for the plug-in estimator of the conditional distribution function P(_Xn+1?·|_X1,…,_Xn)$P(X_{n+1}?·|X_1,\dots ,X_n)$ holds if F has a uniformly continuous density. For a smoothed version of our estimator, the Bahadur representation holds uniformly over each class of functions h that have an appropriate envelope and whose shifts are F-Donsker, assuming some smoothness of F. The proofs use empirical process arguments.     

Selbstmanagement-Entwicklung durch coaching?

Development of self-management by coaching? An expert survey on the promotion of self-management competenciesThe much-discussed assumption that business coaching promotes clients’ self-management competence was explored through an expert survey. In a qualitative questionnaire study, 20 professional coaches provided information on their conceptual understanding of self-management, their approaches to promoting client self-management and on strategies employed to assess intervention outcome. In addition, coaches specified the obstacles and constraints clients encounter when transferring improved self-management skills into everyday working life. The results corroborate the relevance of the self-management concept in a coaching context. The benefits resulting from an increased consideration of self-management processes in coaching research, vocational training courses and day-to-day coaching practice are discussed. The use of theoretical concepts which provide a guideline is recommended.     

Analytical uses of Kalman filtering in econometrics — A survey

This paper surveys the different uses of Kalman filtering in the estimation of statistical (econometric) models. The Kalman filter will be portrayed as (i) a natural generalization of exponential smoothing with a time-dependent smoothing factor, (ii) a recursive estimation technique for a variety of econometric models amenable to a state space formulation in particular for econometric models with time varying coefficients (iii) an instrument for the recursive calculation of the likelihood of the (constant) state space coefficients (iv) a means of helping to implement the scoring⁻ and EM-method for iteratively maximizing this likelihood (v) an analytical tool in asymptotic estimation theory. The concluding section points to the importance of Kalman filtering for alternatives to maximum⁻ likelihood estimation of state space parameters.     

What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe?

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three sub-populations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed add to the non-native populations while different levels of integration describe the transition intensities from a non-native to a native category. Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden.La population d'Europe occidentale (CE et AELE) est décomposée en trois sous-populations: les natifs, les immigrants originaires d'Europe de l'Est, et les immigrants originaires du reste du monde. Les populations non-natives augmentent sous l'effet de divers niveaux d'immigration tandis que les intensités de passage d'une catégorie non-native à native sont décrites par différents niveaux d' intégration. Des projections de population jusqu'en 2050 dans ces divers états, basées sur six scénarios, montrent que: (1) la population totale de l'Europe occidentale commencerait à baisser après 2010, dans le cas d'un arrêt de l'immigration; (2) le taux d' intégration influencerait la taille future de la population non-européenne beaucoup plus fortement que le niveau d'immigration; (3) dans le long terme, les Européens de l'Est serait en nombre très réduit; (4) la population d'Europe occidentale connaîtra un vieillissement important de sa population, quelque soit ses flux d'immigrants; et (5) dans le court et le moyen terme les immigrants contribueraient à alléger le poids des retraites.