On a mixture autoregressive model

We generalize the Gaussian mixture transition distribution (GMTD) model introduced by Le and co-workers to the mixture autoregressive (MAR) model for the modelling of non-linear time series. The models consist of a mixture of K stationary or non-stationary AR components. The advantages of the MAR model over the GMTD model include a more full range of shape changing predictive distributions and the ability to handle cycles and conditional heteroscedasticity in the time series. The stationarity conditions and autocorrelation function are derived. The estimation is easily done via a simple EM algorithm and the model selection problem is addressed. The shape changing feature of the conditional distributions makes these models capable of modelling time series with multimodal conditional distributions and with heteroscedasticity. The models are applied to two real data sets and compared with other competing models. The MAR models appear to capture features of the data better than other competing models do.     

Health Insurance and the Aging: Evidence From the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Seguro Popular</Emphasis> Program in Mexico

Aimed at covering the large fraction of workers in the informal sector without access to a social security program, the Mexican public health insurance program Seguro Popular began in 2002 and now reaches more than 50 million individuals. We estimate impacts of Seguro Popular for the population aged 50 and older on a set of indicators related to health care including utilization, diagnostic/preventive tests, and treatment conditional on being ill. Using the longitudinal Mexican Health and Aging Study over the period 2001–2012, we conduct before and after difference-in-difference matching impact estimators. Our results suggest large and important effects of the Program on utilization and diagnostic tests. We find overall smaller effects on the probability of being in treatment for individuals with chronic diseases, but these effects are concentrated in rural areas with relatively more health services versus rural areas with lower levels of health services. These results suggest that, to the extent that health services become more available in rural areas lacking services, effects of health insurance may increase.     

From the transnational to the Sinophone: lesbian representations in Chinese-language films

This article theorizes global lesbian cinema in Chinese-language films through regionalism, diaspora studies, and Sinophone studies. Through an inter-regional analysis of Butterfly (Yan Yan Mak, 2004, Hong Kong) and diasporic and Sinophone readings of Saving Face (Alice Wu, 2005, USA), I argue that Mak's film illustrates a Hong Kong regional retranslation of a Taiwanese lesbian story, which complicates any claim to a stable "Chinese" identity. Finally, Wu's representation of lesbianism also troubles the politics of Chineseness by pointing to the ways diasporic reproduction of "community" works through the disciplining of other non-normative sexualities.     

Three enigmatic examples and inference from likelihood

Statistics has many inference procedures for examining a model with data to obtain information concerning the value of a parameter of interest. If these give different results for the same model and data, one can reasonably want a satisfactory explanation. Over the last eighty years, three very simple examples have appeared intermittently in the literature, often with contradictory or misleading results; these enigmatic examples come from Cox, Behrens, and Box & Cox. The procedures in some generality begin with an observed likelihood function, which is known to provide just first order accuracy unless there is additional information that calibrates the parameter. In particular, default Bayes analysis seeks such calibration in the form of a model‐based prior; such a prior with second order accuracy is examined for the Behrens problem, but none seems available for the Box and Cox problem. Alternatively, higher‐order likelihood theory obtains such information by examining likelihood at and near the data and achieves third order accuracy. We examine both Bayesian and frequentist procedures in the context of the three enigmatic examples; simulations support the indicated accuracies. The Canadian Journal of Statistics © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

社会政策视角的中西社会和谐理论比较研究

采用比较社会政策视角探讨中西社会和谐理论具有开创性的意义。从社会政策理论发展中提炼出的社会和谐概念在现代社会背景下具有关系和制度两方面的重要性;社会和谐实践发展成为了三个互相关联的层面:经济的、社会的和政治的;在这个基础上建构出了三种意识形态理论下的社会和谐理论:自由主义的、保守主义的和社会民主主义的社会和谐观。中国政府发展出了具有本土意义的和谐社会观。如果把它与三种建构了的社会和谐观进行比较,就会发现它既有与西方和谐观相似的内容,又具有不同的发展。从社会政策的视角出发,改变国家角色的作用对建设和谐社会具有重要的意义。     

The Injurious Relationship Between Racial Microaggressions and Physical Health: Implications for Social Work

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the study of racial microaggressions (or subtle forms of racial discrimination) has increased significantly in the social sciences, particularly highlighting the negative impact of racial microaggressions on individuals’ mental health. Despite this, there is a dearth of literature that has examined the relationship between racial microaggressions and physical and psychological health. Using two self-reported measures—the Racial and Ethnic Microaggressions Scale (REMS) and the RAND 36-Item Short Form Health Survey—with a diverse group of participants (N = 277), results suggest that racial microaggressions are significantly correlated with poorer health conditions. Furthermore, racial microaggressions were found to predict various types of physical health conditions, such as general health problems, pain, lower energy levels, and fatigue. Finally, different types of microaggressions (e.g., microaggressions in school or the workplace, environmental microaggressions) were found to be predictors of specific health issues. Implications for social work are discussed.     

What Counts? How to use Different Sources of NGO Data

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - The quantitative data sources for NGO scholars are increasing, introducing new possibilities for our understanding of the...     

Comparing income poverty gap and deprivation on social acceptance: A mediation model with interpersonal communication and social support

In many developed countries or regions, wide income disparities increase the difficulty in reducing poverty. In their day‐to‐day lives, poor people often feel less accepted by the society. The failures in communicating with social groups and receiving social support lead to negative consequences on individual well‐being and higher level of social exclusion. Based on the debate upon alternative approaches to conceptualizing and operationalizing poverty, this study attempts to verify a mediation model with data from a household survey (N = 1,202) in Hong Kong. The results of structural equation modelling reveal that deprivation is a more powerful indicator than income poverty for specifying the negative relations of poverty with interpersonal communication, social support, and social acceptance; the negative impact of deprivation on social acceptance can be reduced by two significant mediators of interpersonal communication and social support. The results are discussed in terms of directions for future research and policy and welfare intervention.