Variance Reduction Using Nonlinear Controls and Transformations

Nonlinear regression-adjusted control variables are investigated for improving variance reduction in statistical and system simulations. To this end, simple control variables are piecewise sectioned and then transformed using linear and nonlinear transformations. Optimal parameters of these transformations are selected using linear or nonlinear least-squares regression algorithms. As an example, piecewise power-transformed variables are used in the estimation of the mean for the twovariable Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistic W ₂ ². Substantial variance reduction over straightforward controls is obtained. These parametric transformations are compared against optimal, additive nonparametric transformations obtained by using the ACE algorithm and are shown, in comparison to the results from ACE, to be nearly optimal.     

Management,productivity and risk—The way ahead

Any world in transition is not short of things to argue about and we are now in transition. How our arguments are settled, whatsoever may be the virtue of the settlements, may be important. It has recently been suggested, for example, that 10 British governments have made over thirty fiscal interventions in the conduct of manufacturing industry since the Second World War, in addition to such general economic encouragements as tinkering with the minimum lending rate and the exchange value of the currency. A few of these ups-and-downs are the result of policies argued about during general election campaigns, to be sure, but even they, as well as all the others, are largely based on the advice of experts of one kind or another. But when we ask ourselves from where these experts seek the foundations of their advice, we discover a professional world no less short of its internal dissensions; when successive governments take sides with the different schools of experts, we may expect to find our transitional world also in violent oscillation. Expert controversy then may become mere intellectual brawling; this can be noticed within the professions and even lead to some soul searching.... As Johnson observed, after his efforts to secure the reprieve of a well-known preacher had failed: “Depend upon it, Sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in fortnight, it concentrates his attention wonderfully”. There is much concentrating of the attention just now. But we need to ask what to concentrate it on; nothing is as bad as the ill-conceived plan efficiently carried out, with its insistence on answering the wrong questions rather than in identifying the right ones. In the regenerative confusion of these iron times, our first need is to recognise the most discriminating questions obscured beneath the distractions of constant change; it is a need no less imperative for a profession like operational research than for the most quick-witted and evasive of party politicians. The doubts thrown on the credentials of our trade by Russell Ackoff's two recent papers are no more than the sentiment of the music hall song: “All dressed up but nowhere to go!” It is, in other words, easy to arm oneself with technique—indeed, with an arsenal of different techniques—but much more difficult to know what to do with it. There is no general theory of search, because if you do not know what you are looking for you do not know how to sample your experience. You must therefore start to guess. Decisions about the future, whether or not taken on the advice of experts, call for intelligent conjecture (if they are to be thought out) or just for simple guesswork (if they need not be). But since experts do not like risking their reputations, they are averse to guessing; they prefer to bank on the certainties of the elapsed past rather than to grope blindfold into the future. This paper suggests that action learning may be one means of concentrating attention upon the questions dying to be asked.     

Effects of social support from various sources on depression in elderly persons

Although global measures of social support demonstrate significant effects on psychological and physical well-being, the differential significance of various support sources is largely unknown. The present study examines differences in the effects of functional expressive support by source on depressive symptoms. This approach is contrasted with network interaction studies of elderly persons, which do not measure functional support but do suggest that friends are distinctly significant. Spouse, friends, and adult children were found to rank in descending order of importance; relatives show no effect. Low support may have stronger effects than unavailability of sources. Effects of supports and stressors are not conditioned by age, sex, or widowhood. Implications of findings and further research needs are discussed.     

Outside Expert Knowledge; An interview with Michael White

Michael White is an internationally renowned family therapist from Dulwich Centre in South Australia. In this interview, Michael discusses his ideas and experiences covering a wide range of topics including the re-authoring process, changing roles of therapists and persons in therapy, the reflecting team, training, and the future of family therapy.     

THE PROCESS OF INTIMACY: SIMILARITY, UNDERSTANDING AND GENDER

This study examined gender and three aspects of marital intimacy using a method to establish both objective and subjective indices of intimacy. Fifty couples answered the Personal Assessment of Intimate Relationships (Schaefer & Olson, 1981) twice: once as a self-report and once to respond as they predicted their spouses would answer. Couples who were less accurate in predicting each other's responses also diverged in their experience of intimacy and reported lower intimacy. Results suggest that high intimacy is based on both understanding and similarity of intimate experience. Women reported significantly higher levels of intimacy and were also better than men in predicting their partners' feelings. These findings suggest that women may be more attuned to intimacy or that definitions and assessment of intimacy are gender biased or both.     

Agency and Organization: Toward a Cyborg-Consciousness

The presumption that agency is primarily thefunction or personification of a naturalized humanactant can be traced through a Western intellectualtradition which draws upon a dualistic conception of the self as a unified, productive, sovereignsubject, and an independent, external, physical other.In this paper, I problematize the prevalence of suchCartesian differentiation. I review an alternative, postfoundational actant ontology, then tracethe resemblances in the work on situated knowledges.These orientations challenge the hierarchical divisionbetween the internal self and the external other and instead emphasize the relational, material,and performative nature of human being . Drawing on thenotion of proximal thinking, I suggest that formalorganizations can productively be described as relational spaces, containing multiple andcomplex frontiers, frames and interfaces, with(in) whichostensibly differentiated and individualistic attitudestoward agency give way to the variety and possibility of the self-in-between; a cyborg-consciousnessable to withstand the tension of partial identities andcontradictory voices.     

Similarity,Isomorphism or Duality? Recent Survey Evidence on the Human Resource Management Policies of Multinational Corporations

There is considerable debate as to the determinants of the human resource policies of human resource management: do they reflect national institutional or cultural realities, emerging common global practices, parent country effects or the dual effects of transnational and national realities? We use an extensive international database to explore these differences, assessing variations in a range of human resource practices. We find new evidence of national differences in the manner in which indigenous firms manage their people, but also evidence of a similarity in practice amongst multinational corporations. In other words, multinational corporations tend to manage their human resources in ways that are distinct from those of their host country; at the same time, country of origin effects seem relatively weak. Whilst there is some evidence of common global practices, sufficient diversity in practice persists to suggest that duality theories may provide the most appropriate explanation.