城市化与中国社会转型

2011年底，广州市第十次党代会提出走有广州特色的新型城市化发展道路的战略，相信这一战略会在今后相当长一段时间成为广州市各项事业的总指引、总目标。事实上，城市化是一个内涵非常丰富的概念，而城市化的历史也与人类的文明历史相伴，在某种意义上可以说人类的文明历史就是城市化的历史。如果说中国自古是一个农业国家，那么城市化也可看做是中国社会转型的具体体现。只有将城市化置于中国社会转型的视角下观察，才可以对中国的城市化运动有准确的把握。     

偏斜参数对GARCH族模型估计与预测绩效的影响

本文先运用蒙特卡洛模拟考察了偏斜参数对GARCH族模型估计结果的影响并发现,若标准化扰动项偏斜且厚尾,基于对称厚尾分布的极大似然估计量渐近有偏.以上证指数收益为样本,利用SPA检验,实证考察了10种常见的GARCH族结构分别在正态分布、Student-t、GED以及Skew-t分布假设下的波动率预测绩效.结果发现:①Skew-t分布假设下的GARCH族结构能够获得优越的预测绩效;②10种GARCH族结构中,有8种模型在Student-t分布假设下的预测绩效不及正态分布,而GED分布假设下也有4种模型不及正态分布;③样本外观测值的多少以及GARCH-m结构的有无不改变主要结论.     

丝绸之路经济带农牧业合作的空间、潜力与中国农业“走出去”策略

通过丝绸之路经济带的建设,强化我国与中亚五国在政治、经济、文化和民族间的联系,开展农业领域的合作,发展地区经济,是一件互利双赢的事业.与中亚国家进行深度的农牧业合作,既可以加快这些国家农牧业的发展,提高人民食物保障能力或提高其农产品出口的水平,又可以为我国的涉农企业走向深度参与一带一路建设、消化产能、布局农产品全球供应链提供良好的机遇.     

让农民工享有社会保障、体面劳动和有尊严的生活

完善社会保障和实现体面劳动是全球的共同举措。在我国社会保障制度逐步定型和社会政策日臻完善的今天,加强对农民工的社会保护,完善公共政策和公共管理服务,实现农民工的社会保障权益和体面劳动,是建设服务型政府的需要,也是企业和工会义不容辞的责任。我国《社会保险法》的颁布实施将有利于农民工更好地享有社会保险,实现体面劳动。     

Multiple comparisons of exponential location parameters with a control based on doubly censored sample under heteroscedasticity

In this article, a one-sample procedure for multiple comparisons of exponential location parameters with a control under heteroscedasticity is proposed. The observations are obtained by doubly censored samples. A one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals are used to perform such multiple comparisons. Statistical tables of critical values and an example of comparing four drugs in treating leukemia are provided.     

Contents of heavy metals in arable soils and birth defect risks in Shanxi, China: a small area level geographic study

The burgeoning demands of China’s urbanization and industrial development put pressure on the resources of the entire country and have direct and indirect effects on the health of individuals, at times in areas far removed from cities themselves. Current evidence suggests that heavy metal pollution in soil, a common by-product of coal mining and other industrial activities, may be linked to risk of birth defects. We examine this hypothesis using small area level data including soil samples and detailed birth records from 2002 to 2004 from 97 villages in Shanxi province, a heavy coal-mining region. We find that soils containing arsenic, lead, and nickel are significantly correlated with the incidence of birth defects. In particular, we find a strong positive dose-dependent association of birth defects with lead, a moderate positive effect with arsenic, and a dose-dependent negative association with nickel. These results are consistent with the postulated link between arsenic and lead and human birth defects, but raise questions about the effects of nickel in this context. China’s rapid urbanization underscores the need for closer attention to the relationship between the health and the environment.     

指类句的修辞性嬗变

指类句可加以改造而获得特定修辞效果,"全都……,只有……"这一句式就是一例。此类修辞效果是通过"全都……"增强语句的语义信息到极致获得反衬,继而通过"只有……"突显例外现象实现的。指类句是对一类事物属性的隐性全称量化,同时又容忍例外现象。对指类句的元语用分析表明,在元语用层次,理解指类句的认知机制、指类句理解的心理逻辑和语言使用的会话修辞逻辑使得这种改造成为可能。     

“没有+VP之前”与“VP之前”的时间表达机制

本文重点论述了"没有+VP之前"与"VP之前"在时间表达机制上的异同。文章认为:1."没有+VP之前"所表达的时间范围的集合真包含于"VP之前"所表达的时间范围的集合;2.两种格式表达时间的方式不同,"没有+VP之前"以"没有VP"所形成的开区间为临界点,"VP之前"以"VP"所形成的闭区间为临界点;3.两种格式表达时间的差异均取决于人们对"VP"临界点的取值差异。     

Understanding the Kuznets Process—An Empirical Investigation of Income Inequality in China: 1978–2011

The constrict claim that ethnic heterogeneity drives down social trust has been empirically tested across the globe. Meta-analyses suggest that neighbourhood ethnic heterogeneity generally undermines ties within the neighbourhood (such as trust in neighbours), but concurrently has an inconsistent or even positive effect on interethnic ties (such as outgroup trust). While the composition of the living environment thus often seems to matter, when and where remain unclear. We contribute to the literature by: (1) scrutinizing the extent to which ethnic heterogeneity drives down trust in coethnic neighbours, non-coethnic neighbours, unknown neighbours and unknown non-neighbours similarly; (2) comparing effects of heterogeneity aggregated to geographical areas that vary in scale and type of boundary; and (3) assessing whether the impact of heterogeneity of the local area depends on the wider geographic context. We test our hypotheses on the Religion in Dutch Society 2011–2012 dataset, supplemented with uniquely detailed GIS-data of Statistics Netherlands. Our dependent variables are four different so-called wallet-items, which we model through spatial and multilevel regression techniques. We demonstrate that both trust in non-coethnic and coethnic neighbours are lower in heterogeneous environments. Trust in people outside the neighbourhood is not affected by local heterogeneity. Measures of heterogeneity aggregated to relatively large scales, such as, administrative municipalities and egohoods with a 4000 m radius, demonstrate the strongest negative relationships with our trust indicators.     

网络女主播生存状态的理性透视

随着各类直播平台的增加,从业门槛的不断下降,网络女主播的数量急剧攀升。目前,网络女主播收入不稳定、竞争压力大、社会认可度低,其生存状态不容乐观。只有改变社会冷视,关爱女主播;改进平台建设,培养其责任感;优化网络内容制作,引领受众健康、稳定的需求;健全规范,形成"国家—行业—平台"三级规范体制;才能真正保障网络女主播的合法权益。