论红三角地区生态旅游的可持续发展

红三角地区具有旅游合作的良好基础,拥有丰富的生态旅游资源,本文分析了红三角地区发展生态旅游的优势及存在的问题,并提出了相应的可持续发展思路。     

论王夫之历史观的理性精神

王夫之学贯古今,思通过去、现在与未来。他对历史上种种神秘史学主张的尖锐批判,对“理势相契”论和“相天造命”说的深刻阐述,展现了他的史学思想推倒一切的革命精神和破除迷信的理性光彩。     

中国古代诗歌意象批评的发展及其特征

我国古代诗歌意象批评的发展经历了五个阶段,即萌生期、成型期、繁盛期、深化期、完善期;其特征则主要表现在喻象性、张力性、审美性三个方面。     

The current state of the labor queue: National and regional Evidence

We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status of demographic groups.     

我国政府基本建设投资的问题分析与对策

政府投资在我国基本建设中扮演着重要角色,但目前我国存在政府财政提取能力差,城市税费征收执行不规范,预算外资金管理失控等问题,这限制了其在基本建设中的作用。要使政府投资能更好地发挥引导作用,就要开辟政府投资来源渠道,严格资金管理。     

文学介入历史：对解放区报告文学的一种考察

解放区报告文学以一种特殊方式参与了新历史的建构和创造的过程。文学叙事与历史叙事的同构是解放区报告文学创作的一个重要特征,“历史化”倾向的呈示和“史诗”化品格的追求是历史巨变时代对作家的必然要求。在具体的历史语境规约下,知识分子作家最终消解掉自身的学院化色彩以及单纯的社会批判的心态,以文学的方式建立起个体与历史发展的密切关联。     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.