A Longitudinal Empirical Investigation of the Pathways Model of Problem Gambling

The pathways model of problem gambling suggests the existence of three developmental pathways to problem gambling, each differentiated by a set of predisposing biopsychosocial characteristics: behaviorally conditioned (BC), emotionally vulnerable (EV), and biologically vulnerable (BV) gamblers. This study examined the empirical validity of the Pathways Model among adolescents followed up to early adulthood. A prospective-longitudinal design was used, thus overcoming limitations of past studies that used concurrent or retrospective designs. Two samples were used: (1) a population sample of French-speaking adolescents (N = 1033) living in low socio-economic status (SES) neighborhoods from the Greater Region of Montreal (Quebec, Canada), and (2) a population sample of adolescents (N = 3017), representative of French-speaking students in Quebec. Only participants with at-risk or problem gambling by mid-adolescence or early adulthood were included in the main analysis (n = 180). Latent Profile Analyses were conducted to identify the optimal number of profiles, in accordance with participants’ scores on a set of variables prescribed by the Pathways Model and measured during early adolescence: depression, anxiety, impulsivity, hyperactivity, antisocial/aggressive behavior, and drug problems. A four-profile model fit the data best. Three profiles differed from each other in ways consistent with the Pathways Model (i.e., BC, EV, and BV gamblers). A fourth profile emerged, resembling a combination of EV and BV gamblers. Four profiles of at-risk and problem gamblers were identified. Three of these profiles closely resemble those suggested by the Pathways Model.     

Basic needs macroeconomics: Is it manageable in the case of Egypt

Models are proposed to assess quantitatively the allocation of product to basic needs consumption, surplus consumption, and investment uses along a steady growth pash that guarantees all workers (and their families) their basic needs. Ways to estimate the inflationary consequences of shifting to such a growth path are also proposed. The models are applied with data from Egypt, and suggest that attainment of basic needs for the population of that country will be a difficult task.     

Social structure and the female labor force: The case of women workers in muslim Middle Eastern countries

In terms of quantitative comparative data Middle Eastern countries report systematically the lowest female participation rates in economic activities outside of agriculture. This behavior represents a deviation from the current experience of other developing nations and from the historical experience of the now-industrialized West. Using comparative data on female employment patterns in Latin American countries which are at roughly a similar stage of economic development, it is shown that the low level and particular character of women's involvement in the work force in the Middle East can be explained by institutional arrangements contingent upon aspects of social structure. Five countries are selected for intensive analysis: Chile, Mexico, Egypt, Morocco and Pakistan. One major aspect of social organization and its cultural adjuncts is emphasized: The interplay between the volitional avoidance by women of certain occupational sectors because of the social stigmatizing aspect and the prohibition of occupational opportunities imposed by males. The combined effects of this tradition of female seclusion and exclusion are confirmed by the detailed analysis of the structure of the non-agricultural labor force: Middle Eastern women are absent systematically from occupational and industrial sectors of employment which involve public activity and presuppose contact with males.     

Factor structure of the Mini-Maternal Behavior Q-Sort and associations with infant attachment: Informing precision in research and intervention

We examined the factor structure of parental sensitivity to infants as assessed by the Mini-Maternal Behavior Q-Sort (Mini-MBQS), a 25-item short-form of the original 90-item MBQS. We aimed to: (1) identify latent factors of the Mini-MBQS; and (2) validate each factor by testing associations with infant attachment classifications. Data on parent-infant dyads (n = 313; 222 mothers with 281 children, 29 fathers with 32 children) were drawn from a three-generation Australian cohort study. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Exploratory Structural Equation Modelling examined the structure of the Mini-MBQS. Two latent Mini-MBQS factors were identified, requiring 8 of 25 original items: (1) Attention and Responsiveness and (2) Contingency in Interactions. Infants with insecure attachment classifications had parents with lower sensitivity across both factors relative to infants classified secure. In particular, infants with resistant attachment classifications had parents with notably low Contingency in Interactions scores. Infants with disorganised attachment classifications had parents with the lowest relative sensitivity across both factors, and in these dyads Attention and Responsiveness scores were especially low. Results provide an empirically derived factor structure for the Mini-MBQS. Two subscales, each with significant infant attachment associations, may improve precision in clinical intervention and research translation.     

Economic and Political Issues of Fertility Transition in the Arab World—Answers and Open Questions

Population and Environment -     

Iterative Converging Algorithms for Computing Bounds on Durations of Activities in Pert and Pert-Like Models

Since its invention in 1958, Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) has been widely used during the planning, design, and implementation of projects. Pert models the activities of a project as a single source-single sink directed acyclic graph where nodes represent events (end or beginning of activities) and arcs activities. The maximum amount by which an activity can be delayed without delaying the overall project is called the slack. Critical tasks have zero slack whereas all noncritical tasks have positive slacks. Pert is a valuable tool in the management of large projects since it allows to compute the slack of each activity of the project. Such information may be crucial in avoiding cost overruns that would be caused by delays to critical activities and/or excessive delays to noncritical activities. What Pert fails to provide is how one should go about distributing remaining slack on noncritical activities while taking into consideration properties of the activities as well as precedence relationships among them, so as to have reasonable upper bounds on duration of all activities, critical or noncritical. In this paper we propose several algorithms for the distribution of slack on non-critical activities. We show that if one desires to distribute the remaining slack proportionally to the initially assigned activity durations then the problem is in P, and propose an algorithm of linear time complexity. However if one desires to use distribution functions other than the initial durations of activities, then the problem of slack distribution becomes NP-complete. Finding the maximal bounds corresponding to zero-slack solution at the sink requires iterative application of exponential algorithm. For that case we introduce an approximation algorithm of linear time complexity on each iteration. The algorithm iteratively increases bounds on durations of activities and converges to the zero-slack solution on all paths from the source node to the sink node in the Pert-like graph. The algorithms described in this paper were successfully applied to solving timing bounds problems in VLSI design.     

Ergonomic evaluation of a situation of coexposure to solvents and noise in a printing of flexible packaging

The purpose of this paper is to present an ergonomic evaluation of a situation of co-exposure to solvents and noise in a flexible packaging printer. We discuss how such an approach carried out in the field of printing industry work has made it possible to highlight serious shortcomings in the effectiveness of the prevention actions that are supposed to protect workers from chemicals risks and noise. The ergonomic analysis identified a strain working conditions. Indeed, some jobs expose to noise and toxic risk. Lamination operations, winding and cutting are purveyors of noise. Some physical and spatial factors contribute to amplify the toxic risk. The not wearing of personal protective equipment (PPE) by the operators maybe explained by the fact that it doesn't any possibility to do "otherwise". Indeed, operators adopt a compromise to achieve the objectives of production to the detriment of their health and safety. These constraints are causing gene and psychosocial factors. The interviews revealed a state of psychosis in the workshop, which was accentuated by the reclassification of an operator which has created a climate of panic and anxiety especially for older operators who have more than 20 years exposed to handling of toxic and more exposure to high noise level.     

Alternative GMM estimators for first-order autoregressive panel model: An improving efficiency approach

This article considers first-order autoregressive panel model that is a simple model for dynamic panel data (DPD) models. The generalized method of moments (GMM) gives efficient estimators for these models. This efficiency is affected by the choice of the weighting matrix that has been used in GMM estimation. The non-optimal weighting matrices have been used in the conventional GMM estimators. This led to a loss of efficiency. Therefore, we present new GMM estimators based on optimal or suboptimal weighting matrices. Monte Carlo study indicates that the bias and efficiency of the new estimators are more reliable than the conventional estimators.     

Transitional stages and identity boundaries: the case of ethnic minorities in China

At the advent of the Republic in China in 1911, the minority issue took on its real dimension. Its founder Sun Yat Sen, aware of the fragility of the new Nation-State, and turning a deaf ear to the statistical evidence, tried to minimize the influence of the minorities and to enhance, in his writings and speeches, the demographic supremacy of the Hans. On the contrary, the communist regime since the very start (1949) made a full-fledge recognition (including religion as a criterionr of ethnic minorities. There are now 55 minority groups, amounting to 120 million inhabitants, almost 10% of the population. This article explores the relationship between fertility trends since 1970, as depicted in the single age and sex structures in the 1990 census, and socio-economic, cultural and religious factors. Most sinicized minorities (Manchu, Mongols, Koreans …) have more or less followed the same pace of fertility transition as the Hans, under the yoke of the tough restrictive population policy. On the other hand, fertility trends among the less sinicized groups (Tibetans, Uigurs, Kazakhs and Kirgiz), have been largely at odds with the mainstream Han group. Their fertility remained high at the very moments when it was sharply reduced among Hans and decreased when Han fertility was remaining almost stable. This reflcts the fact that the Chinese authorities have conceded substantial privileges to their minorities, especially in the frontiers by relaxing the family planning policy. Religion as such does not emerge as a key explanatory variable explaining fertility differences. Hence, fertility among Moslem minorities has diverged to a great extent among the more integrated Hui minority, on the one hand, and the Turkic ones (Uigurs, Kazakhs and Kirgiz), on the other. Whereas the patterns of the Hui fertility were always in line with those of the Hans, the Xinjiang populations have displayed a higher than expected fertility, which might be a demographic response to the ambitions of the central government, whose aim was to strenghten its buffer-zone in the Turkic regions by drowning them under the masses of Han immigrants. The proportion of ethnic Chinese in Xinjiang has thus increased from a mere 7% in 1953 to some 40% today. However, this proportion is unstable and likely to decrease in the near future under the impact of the higher natural growth of the Turkic populations.