少数民族地区基层公务员晋升的影响因素研究——基于县处级正职领导干部的履历分析

由于自然环境、地理位置和历史等原因,我国少数民族地区经济社会发展长期落后于沿海发达地区,经济的"马太效应"直接波及到人才工作,反过来又制约了民族地区的经济社会发展。本文搜集并整理了西部G省L自治州2012年至今在任的226名县处级正职领导干部的简历,结合访谈与座谈的方式,从个人基本特征、从政经历和关系网络三个维度对影响少数民族地区基层公务员晋升的相关因素做了多元线性回归分析,剖析了我国少数民族地区基层公务员的晋升特点及规律,并提出了相关完善基层公务员晋升机制与干部人事制度改革的政策建议。     

Prevalence of Childhood Sexual Abuse in China: A Meta-Analysis

The objective of the current study was to explore the estimated prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in China. We conducted a meta-analysis that used the data from 36 articles. A total of 125 independent samples and 131,734 participants were included. The results revealed no significant difference in the prevalence of childhood sexual abuse between Chinese men (9.1%) and women (8.9%). The prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in studies from mainland areas was significantly higher than that from Hong Kong/Taiwan. The estimated prevalence of childhood sexual abuse in China also differed according to the definition of child sexual abuse, data collection method, year of data collection, and the mean age of participants at the time of assessment.     

Control Chart for Monitoring Autocorrelated Process with Multiple Exogenous Inputs

We propose to use AR-Sieve Bootstrap in the construction of a control chart of an autocorrelated process influenced by multiple exogenous inputs. The control charts are compared with Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart through a simulation study. AR-Sieve bootstrap control limits are narrower than EWMA control limits. While the proposed method yields a higher rate of false alarms, it is quick in detecting even minimal structural changes.     

Optimal control strategies for dividend payments and capital injections in compound Markov binomial risk model with penalties for deficits

We consider the compound Markov binomial risk model. The company controls the amount of dividends paid to the shareholders as well as the capital injections in order to maximize the cumulative expected discounted dividends minus the discounted capital injections and the discounted penalties for deficits prior to ruin. We show that the optimal value function is the unique solution of an HJB equation, and the optimal control strategy is a two-barriers strategy given the current state of the Markov chain. We obtain some properties of the optimal strategy and the optimal condition for ruining the company. We offer a high-efficiency algorithm for obtaining the optimal strategy and the optimal value function. In addition, we also discuss the optimal control problem under a restriction of bounded dividend rates. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the algorithm and the impact of the penalties.     

民国时期的社会转型、政权建设与族群关系

中华民国时期是中国历史中最复杂和最动荡的时代。贯穿民国38年历史的有三条主线。第一条主线是中国各族人民坚持反对帝国主义侵略的斗争;第二条主线是中华民国下属各民族维护国家统一、与帝国主义支持的国内分裂势力的斗争。这两条主线是晚清"救亡图存"斗争的延续。第三条主线是探索如何实现国家体制的政治转型,实现从"多元型帝国"向现代"民族国家"的体制过渡和国民思想过渡。在整个民国期间,帝国主义别有用心地向中国各族群输入"民族"意识,并扶植代理人。民国历史中,最核心的利益是救国图存,捍卫中华民族的独立和领土完整。在评价民国所有的历史人物时,这是一条最根本的底线。     

Missing value imputation method for disaster decision-making using K nearest neighbor

Due to destructiveness of natural disasters, restriction of disaster scenarios and some human causes, missing data usually occur in disaster decision-making problems. In order to estimate missing values of alternatives, this paper focuses on imputing heterogeneous attribute values of disaster based on an improved K nearest neighbor imputation (KNNI) method. Firstly, some definitions of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (TFNs) are introduced and three types of attributes (i.e. linguistic term sets, intervals and real numbers) are converted to TFNs. Then the correlated degree model is utilized to extract related attributes to form instances that will be used in K nearest neighbor algorithm, and a novel KNNI method merging with correlated degree model is presented. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the proposed method and to demonstrate its feasibility and effectiveness.     

Brush Pen Follows the Mind and Artistic Creation of Animals is the Artist Himself ——On Li Pingye's freehand traditional Chinese ink painting

正Reading carefully of Li Pingye’s painting works with tiger being the main theme of creation,one will always feel a strong shocking force.This kind of feeling comes from two aspects.First,his works convey rich humanistic spirit connotation.Se cond,Mr.Li has a unique style of artistic language of overbearing Chinese ink painting.In the circle of     

天津城建改革开放30年十大亮点

天津自1404年建城至今已有600多年．而改革开放的30年，是天津城市发展最好、规模最大、提高最快、水平最高的时期，可以说是天津城市发展史上光辉灿烂的一页。在这30年中．天津城市建设亮点频闪、星光四射，综合起来有十大亮点，分述如下：     

人性与自由情感——兼论奥斯卡影像美学

人类存在着两类不同性质的情感：自由情感和必然情感。所谓自由情感指的是刺激源和这种情感对象之间没有任何直接的利害关系条件下所产生的情感。美的本质就在于自由情感。奥斯卡艺术堪称电影艺术中的经典。奥斯卡奖近百年的评奖历史证明人性是社会大众和奥斯卡奖评委共同的最好的审美趣味激发源。其中爱情、亲情、友情是奥斯卡影像中最浓墨重彩的人性主题，是自由情感的主要源泉，也是奥斯卡影像美学的核心。